SAN DIEGO -- These two things can be true simultaneously:
- The Padres’ offense has been unlucky.
- The Padres’ offense -- even when accounting for that bad luck -- has not been good enough.
On a pristine Friday afternoon at Fenway Park, San Diego dropped its fifth game out of seven to start the season -- a 5-2 loss to the Red Sox in their home opener. Many of the same concerns from the Padres’ season-opening homestand traveled with them across the country.
It’s been a rough start for this offense. To be clear: The sample remains small -- only seven games. But they’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of those games. After a disappointing offensive campaign in 2025, it’s an inauspicious beginning to the ‘26 season.
The underlying numbers say ...
There’s reason for optimism. Moderate optimism. The Padres haven’t looked good offensively. But they’ve been much better than the results would indicate.
“Luck,” said Fernando Tatis Jr., “has abandoned us.”
That’s not bluster or deflection. There’s data to support his assertion.
Here’s how expected numbers work: We all know hitting is a process-oriented endeavor. You can do everything right and hit a hard line drive directly at a defender -- a negative outcome. But if you do everything right enough times -- if you hit enough hard line drives -- then enough of those balls will find holes. Eventually, the numbers will reflect that.
Because we can quantify the quality of contact that a player is making, we can look at offensive numbers from the standpoint of what they should be. And, yes, the Padres’ offense should be better than it’s been.
Entering play Friday, the Padres’ .202 team batting average was 49 points lower than their expected batting average (.251). That’s the biggest gap in the league. Meaning, batting-average-wise at least, they’ve been the unluckiest team in baseball.
A better statistic is weighted on-base average (which weighs outcomes, so doubles are worth appropriately more than singles, etc.). On that front, the Padres have been the second-unluckiest offense in baseball with a .268 wOBA that was 39 points worse than their expected wOBA (or xwOBA).
“The at-bats have been good,” said Jake Cronenworth. “I think the quality of contact has been good. Again, it doesn’t seem like anything is falling for anybody.”
It’s not just bad luck
Xander Bogaerts has been the biggest victim. He entered play Friday sporting a .167 batting average with a .296 expected batting average. He owned a .188 wOBA and a .314 xwOBA.
And that was before he was robbed by Jarren Duran with a leaping catch in front of the Green Monster in the fourth inning on Friday.
But Bogaerts -- the unluckiest hitter on perhaps the unluckiest offense in the league -- would like to remind you that the expected numbers are not the numbers that actually count.
“Hate that,” Bogaerts said earlier this week. “I’m not that type of guy. Hitting balls right at guys or looking at expected stats -- I’m never that type of guy. It’s a little frustrating. We all want results. We all want to win.”
If the Padres are going to change their luck, they can absolutely be doing more at the plate. For instance, their .268 wOBA was lower than it should be. But their .307 expected wOBA still ranked only 18th. On paper, the Padres should have a top-10 offense. It hasn’t been nearly that good this season. Even the underlying numbers say so.
What needs to change?
Luck, for one. But there’s another aspect to all this. When the luck goes south, there’s a tendency for hitters to alter their approach. Sometimes that’s a good thing. Often, it’s an overreaction. The Padres’ coaching staff is preaching that their hitters should stay the course.
“Sooner or later the expected numbers aren’t going to be expected -- they’re going to be real,” said manager Craig Stammen.
Specifically, the Padres are pleased with their hitters’ swing decisions. They say their internal evaluations tell them those decisions have generally been solid. (The quality of opposing starting pitchers hasn’t made things easy. Already, San Diego has faced Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and, on Friday, a sharp Sonny Gray.)
And yet the showing on Friday afternoon -- particularly from the top of the Padres’ lineup -- simply wasn’t good enough. Their one through five hitters combined to go 0-for-19. That’s a group loaded with All-Stars -- Tatis, Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Ramón Laureano.
So how do the Padres get their superstar hitters again hitting like superstars?
“Just trust themselves,” Stammen said. “Trust what they’ve done in the past and who they are as people and who they are as hitters.
“I’ve got complete confidence that they’re going to be just fine.”