Solving pitching key for Blue Jays in playoffs

September 10th, 2020

As the Blue Jays enjoy their first off-day in nearly a month, they finally have an opportunity to exhale and peek ahead to the postseason.

Playoff baseball was the expectation inside the Blue Jays' clubhouse even back when the team was looking at a 162-game season. That confidence grew by the time the shortened 60-game schedule began, but it still seemed like a difficult leap for a team that won just 67 games in 2019.

Think again.

The Blue Jays took two of three from the Yankees this week in Buffalo, N.Y., and now sit two games ahead of them in the AL East, trailing only the Rays. Barring a complete collapse, the Blue Jays are playoff-bound, which means the spotlight will only get brighter and the smallest decisions will be put under a microscope, especially when it comes to pitching.

With 17 games left, these are the questions the Blue Jays need to answer before the playoffs.

Hyun Jin Ryu … then who?

Ryu was touched up in his last outing, but overall, he’s been as advertised. A rocksteady ace for a team that needed exactly that, Ryu is the unquestioned leader of the rotation, and the Blue Jays will push him as hard as they reasonably can when these big games roll around.

That’s a great start, but true postseason competitors have a No. 2 and No. 3 who can shut down opposing lineups, too. Who fills that role for Toronto, and are both roles even filled by a traditional starting-pitcher strategy?

If manager Charlie Montoyo needed to make that call today, Taijuan Walker would be the likely No. 2, but that No. 3 spot is wide open, with Chase Anderson, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling all options. Matt Shoemaker hasn’t been ruled out yet, but unless he ramps up quickly to return from right shoulder inflammation, that won’t be realistic.

Unless a starter steps forward with a handful of dominant starts down the stretch, there’s nothing stopping the Blue Jays from patching together two or three multi-inning arms in a third game, including a name from the list above with Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay or Julian Merryweather. It’s difficult to sustain that strategy through a full season, but the postseason is about winning that day’s game and worrying about tomorrow when tomorrow comes. Expect the Blue Jays to get creative.

What will Nate Pearson be?

If Pearson can return from his right elbow tightness, which the Blue Jays are optimistic he will, he’ll be used in a bullpen role, potentially like Kay and Hatch over multiple innings. If that’s the case, then a traditional “third starter” becomes even less necessary. Line up the fireballers and let it rip.

The one challenge? Pearson takes time to build up, often starting games near 95-96 mph and not hitting his peak velocity near 100 mph until the middle innings. This means the Blue Jays would need to plan out where he enters the game so that Pearson can be “hot” by the time he leaves the bullpen.

“If we know we’re going to bring him into a game, we want to give him a pretty good heads-up,” Montoyo said. “Get him going the inning before if we know we’re going to use him the next inning. That’s one thing we’ll do with him, since we know it takes him a little bit longer to get going.”

Who’s the (next) X-factor?

The Blue Jays have taken turns carrying the load in 2020. Unexpected contributors have played starring roles, and even with the pending returns of some of their top players, like Bo Bichette and Ken Giles, they’ll need more of this.

Nobody is confusing the Blue Jays with the Dodgers in 2020. Toronto is young and brimming with talent, but if it plans to make a run, it’ll need to steal a game or two along the way with a big play or individual performance. So who’s up?

Don’t sleep on catcher Alejandro Kirk, the club’s No. 6 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. There’s already been discussion about adding him to the roster, even though he hasn’t played above Class A Advanced, because of his advanced bat. Kirk wouldn’t necessarily play a starting role, but if there’s a way to sneak him onto the roster, the 21-year-old is allergic to strikeouts and would give Montoyo a unique, high-contact bat off the bench.