This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- Trade season is approaching. The Padres, you may have heard, tend to be busy around this time of year.
Maybe this year will be different. They haven’t blown up the trade market every summer under A.J. Preller. (It only feels that way.) But this year, the biggest questions are internal.
A third of the way into the season, the offense has not been good. How can the Padres make that offense better? Before any trades, they need Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. producing.
That’s the caveat here. Before I rank the Padres’ biggest needs on the trade market, I need to make one thing clear: The most important upgrade is one in which they add Machado, Merrill and Tatis to the lineup. Like, the real Machado, Merrill and Tatis.
Beyond that, here’s how I’d size up the Padres’ top trade priorities, from lowest to highest, now that we’re entering the middle third of the season -- a.k.a. trade season.
4. Relief pitching
The Padres will, indeed, be in the market for a high-end reliever, which The Athletic first reported earlier this week. That news seemed to have taken some people by surprise, considering the already excellent bullpen in San Diego. I don’t think it should have.
The Padres had strong bullpens in 2022, ‘24 and ‘25 prior to the Deadline. In all three of those seasons, Preller went out and added high-end arms -- Josh Hader in ‘22, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott in ‘24 and Mason Miller in ‘25.
We’ll get to starting pitching later. But that’s expensive. One way to get by with middling starting pitching is to have those starters cover only a few innings, before you turn it over to your super-bullpen.
A year ago, the Padres built that super-bullpen but weren’t quite able to use it in all its glory, because Adam went down with a quadriceps tear. Then, in the offseason, Robert Suarez departed for Atlanta.
Given the ‘pen he built last year, we know Preller covets a bullpen with five serious high-leverage arms. It’s possible Bradgley Rodriguez ascends to that role. But if the price is right, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Padres were to add a relief arm -- a left-hander in particular.
3. Catcher
The Padres hoped they’d solved their catching woes at last year’s Deadline by trading for Freddy Fermin. That has not gone as planned.
Fermin has slumped to a sub-.500 OPS this season. He’s batting just .140. Padres pitchers have raved about his preparation and gameplanning. But they’ve said many of the same things about Rodolfo Durán -- and he came a lot cheaper.
With Luis Campusano nearing a return from his toe fracture, the Padres might be asking themselves whether it’s Fermin who should be optioned rather than Durán to clear space. Durán, who played 11 professional seasons before finally earning his MLB breakthrough, is an incredible story. But that the Padres are even asking that question is a problem.
They need more behind the plate. Campusano was off to an excellent start before his injury. Maybe he’s the answer as a more regular starter. As noted in this space before, it’s hard to find catchers, and they never come cheap. But the Padres ought to be on the lookout at least.
2. Starting pitching
Here’s where this list narrows from what the Padres “want” to what they “need.” That said, the Padres really don’t know how great their starting-pitching need is. At least not yet. They first need to ascertain the health status of Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta, who both seem to be nearing the beginning of their throwing programs.
In the meantime, San Diego is getting by with a makeshift rotation. Michael King has led the charge. Randy Vásquez has punched above his weight. Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito have shown promise with minimal opportunity. Walker Buehler is making it work.
I don’t think I’d want to approach a playoff series with that group of starters -- no matter how good the bullpen is. Would I approach a playoff series with King-Pivetta-Musgrove, followed by whichever of those other arms happens to be thriving at the moment? Absolutely.
But I still don’t know what I’m going to get from Pivetta and Musgrove. And that’s what makes starting pitching a “need.” (It won’t be cheap, though. So, again, perhaps the Padres use the super-bullpen route and cross their fingers in the rotation.)
1. A lefty bat
I’ve flipped on this one. I’d been eyeing starting pitching as the Padres’ biggest priority all year. But as the season has ticked onward -- and the bats have remained cold -- it’s becoming clear what this team needs most at the Trade Deadline:
A lefty bat with some pop.
Maybe Gavin Sheets keeps up his strong start. Maybe Merrill finds his swing. Maybe Jake Cronenworth gets healthy and starts to look like himself again. But I’m certainly not counting on ALL of those things happening.
And even if they do … the Padres could still use a lefty bat.
In the best-case scenario, a lefty bat balances the offense and gives the Padres more pinch-hitting versatility. In the worst-case scenario -- where Merrill and Cronenworth continue to struggle -- a Deadline addition could sit somewhere in the heart of this lineup.
We’re more than a third of the way into the season. The offense is officially a major concern. The quickest solution is improvement from the superstars. But there are external solutions out there as well.