4 potential X-factors for Padres in October

October 5th, 2022

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Padres partied hard on Sunday. They’re going to the playoffs.

“Now we’re at the first stop,” said manager Bob Melvin. “And it feels pretty good.”

Amid the celebrations, that was something of a common refrain. The Padres would enjoy the moment. But they realize this isn’t the destination.

If the Padres want to reach that destination -- if they want to throw a few more clubhouse bangers over the next month -- here are four under-the-radar players who will need to step up:

1.
Dating back to his time in Pittsburgh, Bell has been a streaky hitter. He's seen the wrong end of that streakiness since his arrival in San Diego, however. Entering play Monday, Bell was hitting just .198 with a .593 OPS since his arrival. But lately he's showing signs of life.

"I'm hitting balls to the middle of the field with authority," Bell said. "If my mishit balls go to the middle of the field, then I'm in a good place. Hopefully I can stay there from both sides, and drive the baseball when mistakes are made."

If the Padres could get first-half Josh Bell for the stretch run, it would give this lineup a different dimension. The San Diego lineup just hasn't been all that deep for much of the season. But Bell is a certifiable power and on-base threat. If he can take some of the burden off Manny Machado and Juan Soto in the slugging department, it'd go a long way.

2.
Speaking of Soto and Machado, it's no secret how opposing teams are going to gameplan for the Padres. They're going to do everything in their power to avoid letting the two superstars beat them.

That's a lot harder to do, however, when Profar is on base. And when Profar is going right, that's his specialty. Sitting atop the order, Profar works deep counts and fights his way aboard. He's a pest -- and I mean that in the most complimentary way possible.

Except sometime around mid-August, Profar's performance started to dip, as he approached a career high in plate appearances. That's when Melvin called Profar into his office.

"Certain times you try a little too hard," Melvin said. "Trying easier sometimes is not a bad way to go about things. I think he just kind of backed off a little bit, hasn't put as much pressure on himself. He's one of those guys that's very accountable and a team leader for us. He takes it seriously -- that leadoff spot and getting on base. He's been doing a great job with that recently."

Indeed, Profar is reaching at a .367 clip over the past two weeks. Can he continue to set the table like that for Soto and Machado in October?

3. | 4.
As they’ve done all season, the Padres are probably going to rely heavily on starting pitching in the postseason. They’re also going to ask Josh Hader to get outs at the end of games.

But they still need someone to cover those high-leverage middle-relief innings. And those someones, right now, appear to be Suarez and García, both of whom have been excellent down the stretch.

Suarez hasn’t allowed a run since the start of September and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in that span. García, meanwhile, owns a 2.55 second-half ERA, and hitters simply do not square him up.

But what they have in stuff, they’re lacking in playoff experience. Between the two, they’ve combined for 1 2/3 playoff innings (from García in last year’s Wild Card). Rest assured, that number is about to go up.