If Padres want to be Deadline buyers, top bats need to perform

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter, with MLB.com's Benjamin Rosenberg filling in for this edition. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox

If the Padres are going to be buyers as the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline approaches — and president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller certainly wants them to be — they’re running out of time to make a compelling case that this is a playoff-worthy roster.

San Diego had an ideal chance to climb closer to the postseason picture coming out of the All-Star break against a Royals team that holds the third-worst record in MLB. But the Padres lost in heartbreaking fashion Friday night after squandering a three-run lead in the 10th inning, then were held to one run in another loss Saturday before avoiding the sweep in Kansas City with a 19-2 rout Sunday.

The most encouraging takeaway from the series finale? The Padres’ hitting stars performed like stars. Jackson Merrill homered twice in a four-hit outing and Fernando Tatis Jr. went deep and drove in four runs. Manny Machado, despite a hitless game that kept his batting average below .200, was still productive with two walks, a run scored and a sacrifice fly.

And Ty France, while not expected to carry as much weight as the above trio, was 5-for-12 with three home runs in the series, including a game-tying blast in the ninth Friday night and a grand slam as part of Sunday’s team-wide offensive outburst.

The Padres will need more where that came from out of an offense that was the worst in baseball for much of the first half. Even after scoring 19 runs on 19 hits Sunday, the Padres’ team OPS of .682 is 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Guardians, and Tatis, Machado and Merrill shouldered much of the blame for those early struggles.

But if those three — all former All-Stars, as are France, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth — can hit the way the Padres know they can, San Diego can allocate its resources at the Deadline toward acquiring pitching.

Internal reinforcements are also on the way. Nick Pivetta, last year’s ace who has been sidelined since mid-April with a right flexor strain, is expected back in August. Joe Musgrove last pitched in the big leagues in 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he could also return in August or September. And the bullpen, headlined by star closer Mason Miller, remains one of MLB’s busiest and best.

Preller, however, should never be discounted when it comes to swinging a blockbuster deal. He has made perhaps the biggest move of the Deadline twice in recent years, acquiring Miller in exchange for top prospect Leo De Vries last summer and shipping a package of prospects to Washington for Juan Soto in 2022.

This isn’t to say a Tarik Skubal trade is necessarily being discussed, but if Freddy Peralta (Mets), Joe Ryan (Twins) or Logan Webb (Giants) are being shopped around, it would certainly not be a shock if Preller is in the mix.

The Padres have managed to weather a boatload of injuries and their lineup-wide underperformance, and despite a 30-41 record since April 29, San Diego (49-50) is just 2.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.

More concerning is the number of teams they will have to surpass — the Cardinals, Marlins and Pirates are all tied for the third Wild Card, while the D-backs and Nationals are also in front of San Diego. The Padres start a four-game series at the NL East-leading Braves on Monday night, then play three huge games in Miami starting Friday before returning home to face the Rockies and Giants prior to the Deadline.

FanGraphs currently gives the Padres a 9.4% chance to make the playoffs, but a strong finish to a road trip that is off to a rocky start, then a homestand against two of the three worst teams in the NL, could better those odds. And recent history shows that if Preller believes his team is alive, he will not be shy about adding to his roster, even if the cost in prospect capital is high.