SAN DIEGO -- The beginning of 2023 marks a new year with new expectations in San Diego. Different expectations.

Seriously, when was the last time the Padres entered a season among the World Series favorites? Not a contender with an outside shot. Not an upstart that might threaten if everything clicks.

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No, there are legitimate title aspirations in San Diego for 2023. After a deep playoff run and an eventful offseason, there absolutely should be.

“Being so close to potentially getting to a World Series, that's tough to get out of you,” said Padres manager Bob Melvin. “You really want to push that to the next level the next year … and it just gives you that much more incentive to take it to that next level.”

1. Is this year the tipping point? 
To be perfectly clear: The Padres have built a sustainable contender. The core of their roster is young and controllable, and the club has proven very willing to spend when deficiencies arise.

"I've never looked at windows," Padres chairman Peter Seidler said at Xander Bogaerts' introductory press conference earlier this month. "We expect to be good year after year. As an owner who will be in this game as long as I'm allowed to, we look at a very long-term perspective."

That's absolutely true. And yet, the 2023 season has a different feel to it. The Padres are entering Year 4 as playoff contenders -- but perhaps the first year in which the future isn't necessarily as shiny as the present.

Next offseason could bring a few harsh realities. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are set to become free agents. Manny Machado can opt out of his contract. Juan Soto will be closer to free agency. The Padres have a sizeable chunk of change committed to their current roster already, and the farm system isn't what it once was.

All of which is to say: 2023 feels like it might be the Padres' best chance.

It's not "2023 or bust." But there’s an awful lot riding on this particular season.

2. The Padres are coming for the Dodgers in the West
The Dodgers are still favorites for the division crown, having won last year's race by a whopping 22 games. But the gap sure feels a lot smaller. Maybe nonexistent.

That's partly because the Padres toppled Los Angeles in the playoffs in 2022. There's no longer a dragon to slay. It has been slain.

But the biggest reason the gap has narrowed is the on-field talent. Though the Dodgers were 22 games better than the Padres, San Diego looked like a different team once Soto and Josh Hader found a groove. The games between these two NL West rivals took on a different feel in September. Come October, the two sides felt like equals.

Now consider what's happened this offseason: The Dodgers lost superstar shortstop Trea Turner, stalwart outfielder Cody Bellinger and two-fifths of their rotation. Top-of-the-rotation pitcher Walker Buehler remains sidelined following Tommy John surgery, and there are major questions regarding the depth of the L.A. lineup and pitching staff. (Typically, of course, depth has been the Dodgers' strength.)

The Padres, meanwhile, signed Bogaerts, will bring back Fernando Tatis Jr. and will get a full season of Soto and Hader. They still have holes to fill. But, on paper, this team looks better than the 2022 edition. The Dodgers, meanwhile, look worse.

If there were ever a season for the Padres to snap their division-title drought, it might be this one.

3. The rotation is flawed
Flash back to the start of the 2022 season. Snell tweaked his groin prior to his first start. Mike Clevinger needed extra time before he was fully ready to return from Tommy John surgery.

Just as the season was getting underway, the Padres were forced to deal with injuries to two of their presumed starting five -- and they didn't miss a beat. They were deep enough to cover those innings, and when Snell and Clevinger returned, San Diego had the deepest group of starters in baseball.

It's difficult to imagine a similar scenario unfolding this year if the Padres were to experience injury trouble on their pitching staff. (And it’s bound to happen at some point.)

The current rotation features three frontline weapons in Snell, Darvish and Joe Musgrove.  But after that trio, question marks abound. Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are options, but relatively unproven as starting pitchers. Even if that duo fills out the starting rotation – it leaves the Padres’ depth riddle unsolved. 

MacKenzie Gore was waiting in the wings last season. He's now in Washington. Martinez was the swingman last season. He's now locked into a starting job.

Who knows? Maybe pitching coach Ruben Niebla works some of his magic on one of the Padres' upper-level Minor League options -- say, Ryan Weathers or Jay Groome. Maybe Adrian Morejon has a Gore-like breakout (though he's still never thrown more than 66 innings in a professional season and has been largely inconsistent at the big league level).

Whatever happens with the Padres' fringe arms, it's clear the rotation depth in San Diego isn't close to what it once was.

General manager A.J. Preller can either choose to enter the season on shaky footing. Or he's got three months to do something about it.