PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Padres are searching for a leadoff man.
New manager Craig Stammen clearly feels good about the 2-3-4 spots in his lineup -- Jackson Merrill hitting second, followed by Manny Machado in his usual third spot, with Fernando Tatis Jr. cleaning up. But…
“Leadoff’s kind of the one spot we’re just not quite sure of,” Stammen said. “Who’s going to be in that spot in the lineup -- maybe against different handedness, maybe it’s all the time?”
Before the Padres’ regulars departed for their respective World Baseball Classic teams, Xander Bogaerts commanded that top spot whenever Stammen rolled out his fully loaded lineup. On Monday, with Bogaerts having left to join Team Netherlands, Jake Cronenworth was at the top.
Both are options, according to Stammen, which makes sense, given their penchant for reaching base. But what, exactly, does Stammen want at the top of his lineup?
“I’m looking for just a good first at-bat,” he said. “Bring some energy and let that starting pitcher know that he’s in for a long day. Whether you’re swinging at the first pitch or not, the leadoff hitter can set the tone.”
Here are Stammen’s five options for the top spot:
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts’ career .350 on-base percentage obviously plays nicely ahead of Merrill, Machado and Tatis. Not to mention the fact that Bogaerts is a sneaky excellent basestealer. He swiped 20 of 22 bags last season.
But Bogaerts hasn’t been a .350 on-base guy over the past two seasons. And if he’s going to hit in the top spot, the Padres need him to be.
Maybe there’s a needle to thread. Bogaerts has always been better against left-handed pitching, and he hit .292/.345/.429 against lefties last season. Perhaps Bogaerts bats leadoff against left-handers (including two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on Opening Day). Against righties, Bogaerts could drop to somewhere around sixth, where he spent most of last season.
But if Bogaerts isn’t in the leadoff spot against righties… who is?
Jake Cronenworth
Considering all of Cronenworth’s strengths -- his ability to reach base, his pesky approach, his excellent understanding of the strike zone -- it’s somewhat surprising he’s only started 24 games in the leadoff spot across six seasons with the Padres.
That number might soon go up.
Cronenworth will be the first to tell you he hits lefties just fine. (He proved it last year, too, with relatively even splits and an on-base percentage that was actually better against lefties.) But for most of Cronenworth’s career, he’s been markedly better against right-handed pitching. It’s possible he and Bogaerts could rotate at the top, depending on that day’s pitcher.
Last season, Cronenworth’s .367 on-base percentage was better than any Padre not named Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s not much of a basestealer, but he’s still a good baserunner otherwise. It’s easy to envision Cronenworth as a table-setter for the bashers who would be hitting behind him.
Jackson Merrill
Merrill, meanwhile, is not your typical leadoff man at all. He’s not looking to take walks. Ever. He’s explicitly said as much. Every time Merrill comes to the plate, he wants to do damage.
But that doesn’t mean he can’t walk. Merrill is the type of hitter that pitchers nibble with. If he can get a bit more selective about the pitches he’s trying to do damage with, he’ll inevitably stumble into a few walks.
More pertinently, Merrill is one of the Padres’ three best hitters. And there’s something to be said about getting your best hitters to the plate as frequently as possible. Which means batting them 1-2-3, rather than 2-3-4. Speaking of which…
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Based on what we’ve seen and heard this spring, it seems pretty clear the Padres’ preference is to bat Tatis fourth. Or, at the very least, not in the top spot. Earlier in camp, Stammen hinted that it's his preference -- and it might be Tatis’ preference, too -- to move him away from leadoff.
But you can’t deny the skill set. Tatis is liable to take you deep with the first pitch. (He’s the Padres’ all-time leader in leadoff home runs with 16.) Or, he can work a walk, having led the team in OBP last season. And once he’s on the bases… look out.
Then again, the Padres need more power from Tatis than what they got down the stretch last year. Maybe moving him to a more traditional RBI spot would signal a shift in approach.
Ramón Laureano
Over the course of his career, Laureano generally hasn’t been much of an on-base guy. But last season he reached at a .342 clip, and clearly he brings the quality of at-bat and the instant impact Stammen desires.
Laureano is probably the least likely of the five on this list to hit at the top. His presence as an RBI threat at No. 5 or 6 lengthens the lineup and better suits his skill set. Then again, Laureano batted .282 with an .855 OPS and 24 homers last season. He mashed against both lefties and righties. If Laureano does that again -- and if Cronenworth and/or Bogaerts struggle -- the Padres would at least have to consider him for the top spot.
Ultimately, here’s the reality of the leadoff situation: Whoever it is, the Padres need that guy on base. If Cronenworth/Bogaerts/Laureano can do it at a high enough clip, they’d serve as the table-setter for a fearsome 2-3-4.
If they don't, those 2-3-4 hitters -- Merrill, Machado and Tatis, who are, on paper, the Padres' three best hitters -- probably ought to move up, in some order, to 1-2-3.