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SAN DIEGO -- The Padres have some roster clarity after three players made decisions on their player options over the past two days.
Michael King and Robert Suarez have opted out. Wandy Peralta has opted in. Here’s what it all means.
Qualifying offer decisions incoming
With King and Suarez headed for free agency, the Padres have a pretty clear idea now of the qualifying-offer decisions they have to make. Prior to Thursday’s deadline, they can offer any pending free agents a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer. If those players decline that offer, San Diego would receive an extra pick in next July’s Draft (after the fourth round, because the Padres exceeded the competitive balance tax).
The four names to know are King, Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez. King and Cease, as big-name starting pitchers hitting the free-agent market, have often been lumped together. Let’s do so again here. Given the money available to starting pitchers, it seems likely both would decline a qualifying offer, if the Padres were to present one.
Arraez and Suarez, meanwhile, seem less likely to receive one. It’s unclear whether either would accept, though both spoke of their desire to return to San Diego after the season ended. If the Padres don’t QO them, it seems unlikely they’d be back. The team has major concerns elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Like …
What’s next in the rotation?
The Padres landed Cease and King during the 2023-24 offseason, and both have been anchors in their rotation since then, combining for 110 starts and a 3.62 ERA. That’s what San Diego is losing in free agency.
Nick Pivetta returns and figures to top the rotation after his brilliant Padres debut in 2025. Joe Musgrove should be fully back from Tommy John surgery as well. Randy Vásquez can be reliably slotted in as a back-of-the-rotation arm. But beyond those three, there are question marks.
Yu Darvish’s future remains uncertain. The upper-level Minor League depth is thin after a handful of arms were dealt at this year’s Trade Deadline. If King and Cease decline their qualifying offers and become full-fledged free agents, the Padres will have serious work to do on their rotation this winter.
Context for the Mason Miller decision
Asked about Mason Miller’s role for the 2025 season, general manager A.J. Preller noted: “We’ll see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise.”
In the coming days, there will be a bit more clarity on that roster once the Padres’ qualifying-offer decisions are final. It seems likely the need will be far greater in the rotation than the bullpen.
Miller, of course, has established himself as one of the game’s best relievers. (And “one of” might be doing him a bit of a disservice.) But would he provide more value to the club if he were stretched back into a starter, which is where he began his career? Considering the hefty price tag the Padres paid for Miller, they can’t afford to get this decision wrong.
What do the Padres need in their ‘pen?
This is obviously slightly dependent on the Padres’ decision with Miller. If he’s a starter, there’s a bigger need in their bullpen. But it would still be an outstanding ‘pen and clearly one of the best in baseball entering the 2026 season.
Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam return. (Adam should be back from surgery on his ruptured left quadriceps tendon around the start of the year.) Peralta is also back, alongside Yuki Matsui as the next lefties up in the ‘pen, after Morejon. David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez both broke out in 2025.
There’s a wealth of options, but -- as I’m sure Preller will remind us at the GM Meetings next week in Las Vegas -- you can never have too much pitching, particularly if Suarez and Miller are no longer a part of that ‘pen. I’d expect the Padres to be on the lookout for a middle-innings reliever.