PEORIA, Ariz. -- Wednesday marked the first official workout for Padres pitchers and catchers at the Peoria Sports Complex (though in reality, many of those pitchers and catchers have been on hand for weeks).
With Spring Training officially underway, here’s a breakdown of the starting-rotation race and where things stand on Day 1:
Locks (3): Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove
King’s return was the Padres’ biggest move of the offseason and went a long way toward solidifying the front of the rotation. If healthy, this trio is a formidable one. But there are health concerns surrounding Musgrove and King, in particular.
“Obviously [the rotation] is headlined with Joe, Nick and Michael,” said manager Craig Stammen. “We feel good about those three -- and then there’s competition.”
Musgrove is on his way back from Tommy John surgery and will almost certainly be slow-played to some extent this season. King dealt with a nerve issue and a knee injury last season, which limited him to 15 starts. Both say they’re healthy right now and ready to go.
Even still, Pivetta seems the likeliest Opening Day starter by far, coming off a Padres debut in which he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished sixth in voting for the National League Cy Young Award.
Probably in (1): Randy Vásquez
In no uncertain terms, Vásquez was one of the Padres’ most reliable starters last season. He made 28 appearances (26 starts) and posted a 3.84 ERA. Sure, there was probably some good luck involved, as evidenced by his 4.85 FIP. But toward the end of the season, Vásquez began turning a corner when it came to missing bats and limiting walks.
“He’s probably got the inside track to one of those last two spots,” Stammen said. “He pitched great for us last year, especially how he ended the season.”
If that’s the version the Padres get this spring, Vásquez will make the roster, easily. The reality is, as things currently stand, Vásquez is probably in the rotation no matter what. The only way he would suddenly find himself on the bubble is if the Padres were to add another starter this spring. (More on that later.)
Contenders (4): JP Sears, Matt Waldron, Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales
Assuming full health (a risky thing to do with any pitching staff), there is likely one place available at the back of the Padres' rotation. These are the four primary candidates.
Sears and Waldron are the two on the 40-man roster. But they’ll need to bounce back from their struggles last season. The Padres aren’t short of available roster spots, and if McKenzie or Gonzales earns it, there will be a place for them.
McKenzie is an intriguing buy-low candidate. A protegee of pitching coach Ruben Niebla, McKenzie was excellent from 2020-22 in Cleveland before he was beset by injuries and inconsistency.
Gonzales, who turns 34 on Monday, is also worth a flier. He didn’t pitch last season while recovering from flexor tendon surgery on his left elbow. But he’s a serviceable 10-year big leaguer who has posted a 4.16 ERA across 926 2/3 career innings.
Three potential wild cards…
1. There remains a very distinct possibility that the Padres would add another starter during Spring Training. General manager A.J. Preller has made a habit of that. In each of the past four springs, Preller has added Sean Manaea, Michael Wacha, Dylan Cease and Pivetta, respectively. Per sources, the Padres again remain active in searching for another starter (though it seems doubtful it would be on the level of those arms from previous springs).
2. It is widely believed that left-hander Kyle Hart will compete for a place in the bullpen, where his stuff played up significantly last season. But at the very least, Hart will be stretched out at the start of camp, Stammen said Wednesday. If Hart can carry those changes he made late last season to a multi-inning setting, perhaps he’d find himself back in the starting mix.
3. And, lastly, it’s a long shot but at least possible that a prospect or another non-roster invitee could break through this spring. The Padres’ rotation isn’t full to the point where they’d say no to a dominant Miguel Mendez. That said, it’s far likelier that Mendez, the team’s No. 5 prospect, will open the season in the Minors. Same with No. 10 prospect Jagger Haynes, who is also in big league camp.