PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Padres are convinced their Opening Day roster will be as deep as any they've had under general manager A.J. Preller. That should leave some tricky decisions on the edges.
With less than two weeks remaining until the Padres break camp in Peoria, there are close calls in the rotation and bullpen, as well as for the final two places on the bench.
Here’s one educated guess at the Opening Day 26-man roster:
Catchers (2): Freddy Fermin, Luis Campusano
At long last, Fermin will get the opportunity to take over as the primary catcher after years of serving in a backup capacity in Kansas City. The Padres were impressed with Fermin’s ability to handle a new pitching staff on the fly last season, and they’re even more bullish on the idea of Fermin with an entire spring to work with this staff.
Still, Fermin isn’t the kind of catcher you ask for 130 starts. He’s more a 1A type. So who’s 1B? That will almost certainly be Campusano. The Padres mulled the possibility of adding another catcher to the mix. Instead, they're rolling the dice on a long-awaited breakout from Campusano, who was excellent last season at Triple-A, hitting .336 with a 1.036 OPS, despite some well documented defensive shortcomings.
Infielders (6): Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Ty France
With Sheets “penciled in” as the team’s primary first baseman, per manager Craig Stammen, the starting infield is set: Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Sheets from left to right.
From there, things get interesting. Andujar has always mashed against lefties. So has Nick Castellanos, who is experimenting at first this spring. (For the purposes of this exercise, we're listing Castellanos as an outfielder.) It's entirely possible that duo would start at 1B/DH against left-handed pitching with Sheets coming off the bench.
Sung-Mun Song was expected to serve as a bench option, capable of backing up anywhere in the infield. But he is being slow-played after his offseason oblique injury flared up during Cactus League play. It's unclear whether Song will be available in time for Opening Day. The Padres could sure use his versatility and his left-handed bat.
If Song isn't ready, that clears a path for France, a Gold Glover at first base last season who is also capable of handling second. Or, the Padres could opt for a glove-first middle infielder like Mason McCoy.
Outfielders (5): Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Ramón Laureano, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Johnson
Tatis, Merrill and Laureano comprise the obvious starting outfield, with Johnson capable of backing up at all three spots. It's unclear whether the Padres are looking to carry a true backup center fielder, or whether they'd be comfortable letting Laureano slide to center in a pinch. Johnson is the obvious lead candidate for that spot.
In the meantime, Castellanos can cover both outfield corners whenever he's not DHing or playing first base. And Stammen has noted that he'd like to cycle some of his regulars through the DH spot, so it's possible Castellanos gets more corner outfield starts than you'd think.
Starters (5): Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, Germán Márquez
Vásquez has seemingly secured his roster spot with an excellent spring, leaving one place available at the back of the rotation. The Padres have a handful of big-name veterans in camp competing for that spot. Among those contenders: Márquez, Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, JP Sears and Triston McKenzie.
The Padres like their trio of Pivetta, King and Musgrove at the top of the rotation. But they come with question marks. Musgrove is returning from Tommy John surgery. King made only 15 starts last season while dealing with a nerve issue and a knee injury. Pivetta had a start skipped over the weekend because of what the team called "arm fatigue."
Which is to say: The depth of options for the No. 5 spot might come in handy. It's not yet clear if Musgrove will be fully built up by Opening Day, which could clear a path for both Buehler and Márquez. Meanwhile, righties Griffin Canning and Matt Waldron are likely to open on the IL but could still return in the early stages of the season.
Relievers (8): Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodriguez, Kyle Hart, Logan Gillaspie
The offseason brought plenty of speculation that Miller, Morejon and/or Morgan might transition into a starting role this year. The Padres had shut down that idea by the Winter Meetings. All three, they said, were simply too valuable in relief.
With their return, the Padres boast perhaps the best bullpen in baseball. Jason Adam (left quadriceps tendon repair surgery) is a tossup for Opening Day. Yuki Matsui (left groin strain) is a question mark as well. We’ll err on the side of caution for this projection and say both are back by mid-April but off the Opening Day roster.
That leaves anywhere from one to three places available in the 'pen. The trio of Rodriguez, Hart and Gillaspie have yet to allow a run across 21 1/3 combined Cactus League innings. Gillaspie's ability to cover length makes him a favorite. Hart, too, especially if Stammen covets another lefty with Matsui out.