BOSTON – Last week’s assignment was to answer five top questions surrounding the Red Sox entering the offseason.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t many others that are equally compelling.
My longtime penpal Jack Marshall, from Virginia, who I finally met in 2023 after exchanging emails for nearly a quarter century as outlined in this article you might remember, came up with eight more questions.
Thanks for the story idea, Jack. I’ll answer your questions this week.
What will happen with Franklin Arias? If he makes it clear that he should be the shortstop, then what? Trevor Story to second? Or to third, like Rico [Petrocelli] in the mid-70s? To second, to compete with Curtis Mead?
Boston’s No. 1 prospect Arias could be the story for the Red Sox entering ’27. But as we’ve learned all too well in recent years, every top prospect has his own path. Boston’s front office is certainly bold enough that if there’s a consensus that Arias gives the best chance to win, he will be the choice on Opening Day, or whenever they feel the time is right after that. If Story were to move positions, it would be to second, where he has experience. But where would that leave Curtis Mead? I suppose he could DH and rotate between second and third. Stay tuned. There is much to unfold here.
Was Mickey Gasper for real? What’s his role?
I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Gasper will hit 10 homers in a span of 99 plate appearances as he did from Aug. 17 to Sept. 22. HIs run reminded me a bit of Shane Spencer, who, in ’98 for the Yankees, came out of obscurity and hammered 10 homers over his final 54 plate appearances of the season. While Spencer was a useful role player for a Yankees team that won it all in three straight years and made it to the World Series four consecutive seasons, his career high for homers in a season was 12 in ’03 and his best Baseball Reference WAR was 2.1 in ’01. That said, I think Gasper can be a solid platoon hitter who offers more defensive versatility than Spencer did.
Who's the real Caleb Durbin? Is a .700 OPS his ceiling?
Durbin’s numbers have been similar in his first two seasons: a .721 OPS with 11 homers in 445 at-bats for the ’25 Brewers and a .710 OPS with 13 homers in 508 at-bats for the ’26 Sox. However, I’m open to thinking there is more in there with Durbin for a couple of reasons. First, his slump to start ’26 was so long and so rough that it dampened his overall numbers for the season. Second, he played through a left pinky he dislocated twice since June without complaint. He underwent surgery after the Sox were eliminated. He is also a Gold Glove-caliber defender at third, which only adds to his value.
Can Wilyer Abreu ever become a consistent offensive player who hits 30 homers?
At some point, you are who you are. Abreu is a very solid player as is, known for torrid hot streaks and elite right-field defense. Consistency would be the key for him to become a 30-100 type guy. He has definitely run hot and cold in his three seasons.
Tanner Houck? Kutter Crawford? Johan Oviedo? Patrick Sandoval? How do all those injured starters fit in?
Sandoval is a free agent. I think he is gone. Houck, Crawford and Oviedo are all arbitration-eligible. Given that Houck was an All-Star just two years ago, he will definitely earn a chance to claim a rotation spot, or at worst, a high-leverage bullpen role. The Sox traded a power-hitting prospect they liked in Jhostynxon Garcia to get Oviedo, so I think they’d like to see what he can be when healthy. Crawford has a chance to be an odd man out on non-tender day, which is Nov. 20.
Any chance Adley Rutschman returns to his performance level when he was healthy in Baltimore?
You mentioned the key word: Health. Rutschman has managed injuries in recent years. And even when he has been active, he’s been compromised at times by his health. If he can stay on the field, he can make an impact as a switch-hitter with power. Even with the health issues, Rutschman maintained his excellence and leadership behind the plate.
Can Ceddanne Rafaela keep on the upward trend offensively?
At some point, he will have to make drastic improvements in his chase rate for that to happen.
Rafaela’s improvement in conventional offensive stats this past season didn’t translate to the metrics, as Baseball Savant didn’t have him in red in any offensive category except for baserunning. His average exit velocity was in the 10th percentile while his chase rate was in the first percentile. Despite all that, Baseball Reference WAR of 5.7 demonstrates his value to the Red Sox. He is the best defensive center fielder in the American League, and all the data backs that up.
Will Triston Casas finally contribute?
I’m going to counter your questions with one of my own. Is there a role for him with Willson Contreras now entrenched as the first baseman and Masataka Yoshida and Mickey Gasper still around as lefty DH options? One reason I think Casas survives non-tender day is because he has Minor League options. If he can finally get healthy, he provides valuable insurance should the Sox suffer an injury at first base or DH.