TORONTO -- This offseason doesn’t have a “reunion” drama that compares to Bo Bichette’s from last winter, but Shane Bieber still feels like the most interesting name of the bunch.
George Springer is 37 now, and while he’s been vital to this organization for the past six seasons, the Blue Jays prefer more flexibility in their DH spot after Springer made 113 of his 115 starts there in 2026. Max Scherzer had his moments in Toronto, but is 42 now and coming off a 5.74 ERA with a handful of IL stints last year.
Bieber, still just 31, is obviously the most attractive name among the Blue Jays’ pending free agents. For a brief, healthy moment in 2026, it felt like Bieber could pitch his way into the qualifying offer conversation, but now he profiles as a rebound candidate, fresh off a 4.37 ERA over 11 starts in another injury-shortened season.
There still has to be some level of appeal from Bieber’s side, because what’s truly changed in the past year? When Bieber picked up his $16 million player option last offseason -- which surprised many at the time -- he spoke about Toronto as the best place to set himself up for free agency, praising the organization’s resources, pitching coaches and off-field factors, like the treatment of his family. Those haven’t gone anywhere.
What type of pitcher could Bieber be in 2027?
This is the tricky part. At this exact time last year, Bieber was coming off a strong finish to the regular season in Toronto after completing his Tommy John rehab. It was fully conceivable that, with a strong 2026 season, he’d launch himself towards the top of the free-agent pitching market in the ’26-27 offseason, right into the tier below Tarik Skubal. That hasn’t happened.
Some lingering forearm and elbow issues cost Bieber the first half of 2026, then right teres major inflammation ended his season early after just 11 starts.
Who is Bieber, then? In the limited action we saw in 2026, his fastball averaged 92.3 mph, which is close enough to his career norms. There were some red flags, though, with a career-low strikeout rate (18.2%) and a career-low whiff rate (23.5%). That’s a very dangerous line for Bieber to walk, given that he’s more of a “control” pitcher and doesn’t overwhelm hitters with pure stuff.
Do the Blue Jays believe this is a dip that will rebound towards his career norms with a clean bill of health, or is that risk too great for them? As always … it depends on the price.
What could a Bieber contract look like?
It’s complicated. Re-establishing value and hitting the market again at 32 sounds most logical for Bieber, who could still set himself up well for a lucrative, multi-year deal. That’s the starting point.
Depending on the overall value, club and player options come into play here, and incentives could be attractive to either side. The Blue Jays leaned heavily into incentives for innings pitched with Scherzer this past year, whose base salary of $3 million had $10 million in potential incentives for innings pitched. That’s the extreme end of the spectrum, but still, incentives feel probable in a Bieber deal.
How serious is the Blue Jays’ pitching need?
If the season started tomorrow, it’s looking like: Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, José Soriano, Cody Ponce and Spencer Miles. That’s a fine start, especially when you factor in a handful of top pitching prospects who could be legitimate options early in the year.
It’s not nearly enough, though. Remember Spring Training 2026, when the Blue Jays had eight starters and we all wondered how they’d handle it? The Blue Jays need to add multiple starters this offseason again, and you can expect them to. One-year stopgaps have rarely been their style, but value is value if they believe in Bieber to rebound.
The Blue Jays could also have José Berríos coming back later in the season after Tommy John surgery, but that’s to be treated as a bonus, not counted on. Frankly, if the Blue Jays feel open to a one-year deal with Bieber, a reunion with Kevin Gausman would have to come into that same conversation. Gausman will be 36 next season and coming off a 4.51 ERA last season, so if he chooses to pitch in 2027, perhaps he lands in the same range as the one-year, $18.5 million deal Chris Bassitt signed with the Orioles a year ago.
Bieber remains an option, though, and if he truly believed in the Blue Jays to help establish his free-agent value a year ago, not much has changed.