A pair of 3-way ties are in play in the NL Wild Card race. Here's how they would shake out

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It's the final week of the regular season, and most of the NL playoff picture is pretty well settled.

  • The NL Central champion Brewers and NL West champion Dodgers will be the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, and have first-round byes. 
  • The NL East champion Braves will be the No. 3 seed and host an NL Wild Card Series against the yet-to-be-determined No. 6 seed.
  • The Padres and Cubs claimed two of the three NL Wild Card berths.

But two things remain unsettled, entering Saturday:

  1. The Phillies and Diamondbacks are still battling for the other NL Wild Card spot.
  2. The seeding of all three Wild Card teams is up in the air. The top Wild Card team would get the No. 4 seed and host the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 6 seed would travel to play the No. 3 seed Braves

Postseason Guide
• Current bracket, tiebreakers and more
• Every team that's clinched so far
• Postseason schedule
• Who would win a 3-way tie for NL Wild Card?
• FAQ: Tiebreaker rules | Postseason format

Who will grab the final NL Wild Card spot?

Not long ago, the Phillies looked like a near-lock, but the situation has shifted dramatically. With the D-backs winning six games in a row, and the Phillies faltering, Arizona has pulled within one game and its postseason odds, per FanGraphs, have climbed from 5.3% all the way up to 32.4% entering Saturday. The Phillies still control their own destiny, but because the D-backs own the tiebreaker, if they get one more win than the Phillies over the final two games, they will snatch that final playoff spot.

How will the seeding of the three NL Wild Cards play out?

If the Phillies join the Cubs and Padres as Wild Card teams, they could still finish in any order -- including a potential three-way tie for the three spots. But that isn't the only three-way tie possibility. Arizona, Philadelphia and Chicago could also wind up tied for the final two spots, with San Diego clinching the No. 4 seed ahead of them.

Let's break down both scenarios.

Before we get to that: You can read in full about the postseason tiebreaker rules right here, but the key point is that in ties between three teams … 

  • If the three clubs do NOT have identical records against one another, AND Club 1 has a better record against Clubs 2 and 3, THEN Club 1 qualifies
  • If no club has a better record against the other two clubs, then the clubs will be ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst the other clubs combined. The club with the highest overall winning percentage in that group qualifies.

Who would win a Cubs/Padres/Phillies tie?

If those teams end up tied at 89-73, with the D-backs eliminated, this one is simple -- relatively speaking. That’s because the Cubs dominated their season series against both teams. They went 5-1 against the Padres and 6-1 against the Phillies. That means, in a theoretical three-way tie for the three Wild Card spots, the Cubs would earn the No. 4 seed. That, in turn, would give them home-field advantage for each game of the Wild Card Series against the No. 5 seed. The Phillies won all six games from the Padres, which would give them the edge in the remaining tiebreaker.

That leaves us with this arrangement :

  • Cubs: No. 4 seed, host Phillies in Wild Card Series
  • Phillies: No. 5 seed, play at Cubs in Wild Card Series
  • Padres: No. 6 seed, play at No. 3 seed Braves in Wild Card Series

If only two of those three teams end up tied, the Cubs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies or Padres, while the Phillies would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres.

Who would win a Cubs/Phillies/Diamondbacks tie?

This scenario would require the Cubs to lose their last game, the D-backs to win their last two, and the Phillies to go 1-1, leaving all three teams at 88-74. (The Padres already have 89 wins, so they would claim the No. 4 seed.)

So unlike the previous scenario, this tie wouldn't be for the three Wild Card spots. It would be for the last two spots, with the third team being eliminated.

Here, the Cubs have the edge. They went 4-2 against Arizona and 6-1 against Philly this season, so they would win the three-team tiebreaker and claim the No. 5 seed. That pares it down to the D-backs and Phillies. As previously mentioned, Arizona owns the tiebreaker there, so they would be the No. 6 seed.

That leaves us with this arrangement :

  • Padres: No. 4 seed, host Cubs in Wild Card Series
  • Cubs: No. 5 seed, play at Padres in Wild Card Series
  • D-backs: No. 6 seed, play at No. 3 seed Braves in Wild Card Series
  • Phillies: Eliminated

Will either three-team tie scenario come to pass? We’ll just have to see how the next two days play out.