Why Witt could be the next 5-tool star

July 1st, 2022

Bobby Witt Jr. is really starting to put his tools on display -- all five of them.

The Royals' 22-year-old rookie phenom is up to 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a Major League-leading five triples; he's making defensive gems; and he has a great arm whether he's at third base or shortstop. He doesn't just have superstar potential, he has five-tool superstar potential. Witt can be the rare player who does everything.

"It's definitely a goal to be a five-tool guy," Witt said. "In the end, I do want to be known as that. But I’m still working on it every day."

How do we know so early? We can look at each of baseball's traditional five tools -- hitting, power, speed, glove and arm -- through Witt's Statcast data.

Here's a breakdown of Bobby Witt Jr., five-tool player.

HIT

Witt is already standing out in terms of hitting the ball hard. He ranks highly in Statcast's trio of hard contact stats:

  • His average exit velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 86th percentile of MLB
  • His max exit velocity of 113.7 mph ranks in the 92nd percentile of MLB
  • His 44.2% hard-hit rate ranks in the 72nd percentile of MLB

That average exit velocity also ranks second among shortstops this season.

SS with highest avg. exit velo, 2022
1. Carlos Correa: 91.9 mph
2. Bobby Witt Jr.: 91.3 mph
3. Bo Bichette: 91.1 mph
4. Corey Seager: 90.8 mph
5. Trea Turner: 90.7 mph

Witt has hit 13 balls 110 mph or harder, the same number as Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. He's one of 25 Major League hitters who've hit 10 or more balls at that upper tier of exit velocity.

Witt is also one of just 10 rookie hitters since Statcast started tracking in 2015 with 10 or more 110-plus mph batted balls by the end of June of their rookie seasons. Fellow top prospect Julio Rodríguez is another. And almost all of the rest of the list is star sluggers: Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Ronald Acuña Jr., Aaron Judge and Jorge Soler.

POWER

Witt has a compact, dangerous, Mike Trout-like swing that generates easy power. That power is starting to show up in-game.

Since May 13, Witt's OPS is .874, and he has 10 homers and 24 extra-base hits in those 44 games.

He has 17 barrels over that time -- that's Statcast's optimal level of contact, the combinations of exit velocity and launch angle most likely to result in extra-base hits and home runs -- tied with Dansby Swanson for the most among shortstops.

Witt's hardest home run in the big leagues is 111.2 mph, and his longest homer is 443 feet. And there's more power in there.

Look at his all-fields power potential. Witt's game against Trout and the Angels on June 21 was a beautiful example of that. Witt, a right-handed hitter, drove three extra-base hits to right-center field, including two home runs.

He's the only right-handed hitter with three extra-base hits to the right side of the field in a game this year. If you add in that two of those hits were home runs, Witt is one of only eight right-handed hitters to do that since the start of Statcast tracking in 2015, along with Bo Bichette, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Travis d'Arnaud, Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Céspedes.

SPEED

From Opening Day, Witt's biggest standout tool has been his speed. He's not just fast. He's the fastest player in the league.

Fastest players by avg. sprint speed, 2022
1. Bobby Witt Jr.: 30.4 ft/sec
2. Trea Turner: 30.3 ft/sec
3. (tie) Jose Siri: 30.2 ft/sec
3. (tie) Jorge Mateo: 30.2 ft/sec
5. Eli White: 30.1 ft/sec
MLB avg.: 27 ft/sec. Elite: 30+ ft/sec

Witt's sprint speed surpasses even Turner's, easily above Statcast's elite 30 ft/sec threshold. Witt has reached 30-plus ft/sec on 52 different runs this season, getting as fast as 31.6 ft/sec. He's beat out seven hits with elite 30-plus ft/sec sprint speed and has averaged 29.4 ft/sec on his steals.

This gives Witt the potential for an elite power-speed combo. He's already one of nine players this season with double-digit home runs and stolen bases, on pace for a 20-20 season as a rookie.

"Growing up, I was watching guys who had tools, right?" Witt said. "I liked guys who were fast. I liked guys who had power. And my dad [former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt] always told me, 'You have the capability of being a five-tool player if you want to.' That’s when I started to work to do that."

The Statcast data only supports him more -- Witt is one of six players in the top 15% of Major Leaguers in both average exit velocity and sprint speed.

85th+ percentile of MLB in exit velo and sprint speed, 2022
Byron Buxton -- 94th in exit velo / 93rd in sprint speed
Teoscar Hernández -- 92nd / 86th
Mike Trout -- 91st / 96th
Julio Rodríguez -- 88th / 97th
Franchy Cordero -- 87th / 87th
Bobby Witt Jr. -- 86th / 100th

GLOVE

Here are a few notable stats about Witt's defense, using Statcast's Outs Above Average metric.

  • He's been best at the shortstop location on the field, with +2 Outs Above Average.
  • He has +6 OAA on plays coming in, tied for the best among infielders with Tommy Edman, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Manny Machado.
  • He can make the tough plays, with +3 OAA on plays with an estimated success rate of 50% or lower. He's made 10 such plays.

Let's use Statcast's FieldVision 3D tracking technology to take a unique look at one of Witt's highlight-reel plays: Witt's Derek Jeter-esque jump-throw from deep in the hole at shortstop to throw out Jonah Bride last weekend.

Witt gets rid of the throw in just 0.83 seconds to get Bride, and still gets 75.6 mph on it even though he's airborne and falling away from first base.

ARM

Witt has shown consistent top-tier arm strength, ranking sixth among infielders in 2022, tied with Matt Chapman.

Infielders with highest avg. "max-effort" arm strength, 2022
Min. 10 max-effort throws
1. Sergio Alcántara: 91.0 mph
2. Willy Adames: 87.7 mph
3. Brian Anderson: 87.6 mph
4. Johan Camargo: 87.5 mph
5. Javier Báez: 86.4 mph
6. (tie) Bobby Witt Jr.: 86.2 mph
6. (tie) Matt Chapman: 86.2 mph

He's even reached a max arm strength of 94.4 mph, which is the second-highest for any infielder behind the Pirates' Oneil Cruz, who's made a 96.7 mph infield throw.

Witt can use his arm to get outs on bang-bang plays against fast runners, like he did throwing out Giménez at 88.6 mph in early April.

One of Statcast's best uses is to measure a player's underlying tools. And if you were keeping count for Witt … that's five. 

"My dad always tells me, 'You use it or lose it,'" Witt said. "So you've got to use your arm, use your speed, or whatever it is, or else you are going to lose that 'five-tool' rating. That’s always stuck with me. I want to always have those tools to help."

Anne Rogers contributed reporting for this story.