Steal or no steal? How Altuve will decide when to pick spots

March 19th, 2024

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- One of the main initiatives for new Astros manager Joe Espada this year is for the team to be more aggressive on the bases, and it’s a philosophy star second baseman is buying into -- if the timing is right.

Altuve, who stole two bases in Monday’s Grapefruit League game against the Nationals, still has good speed at 33 years old. But with Altuve leading off and slugger Yordan Alvarez in the No. 2 hole in Espada's lineup, Altuve has to be picky with how much he steals.

“You have to keep in mind Alvarez is hitting behind me and you have to be really smart, especially in situations where they don’t want to pitch to him and are going to walk him,” Altuve said. “We might be talking about the best hitter, if not the second-best in the big leagues. It’s worth it to let him hit.”

The situation, of course, will dictate whether stealing second base makes sense for Altuve, given that a successful steal of second would open up first base and allow teams to pitch around Alvarez. Altuve, who led the American League in stolen bases in 2014 (56) and '15 (38), showed signs of slowing down when he swiped only 13 bases on 24 attempts in 318 games from 2019-21. But over the last two seasons (231 games), he’s stolen 32 bases on 35 attempts.

“The game will dictate what I do, especially with my experience of playing a long time,” he said. “I think at this point, I know when to do it and when to not, especially with him behind me.”

Espada would like to see Altuve push the tempo on the bases and said Altuve’s instincts should allow him to be more active in that regard.

“Jose has some of the best instincts in the game,” he said. “He sees an opportunity, he sees a guy taking his time delivering the ball, I want him to take those chances and steal a base. We have a few other guys that are capable of doing that. We’re encouraging the guys, we’re giving them information, they’ve got some green lights and you’re going to see a more aggressive team on the bases.”

Altuve’s 26.9 feet per second average sprint speed last year was his slowest since the data was tracked beginning in 2015. In fact, from '15-22, Altuve didn't have a single season where his average sprint speed was slower than 28.0 feet per second. That drop in '23 was partially a result of Altuve, who's entering his mid-30s, being more selective of when he gives maximum effort down the first-base line in an effort to preserve his body.

That said, Altuve, who turns 34 in May, can still turn on the jets when he needed. In 2023, Altuve had 11 bolts, or individual recorded sprint speeds of 30.0 feet per second.

“I think I’m the fastest 34-year-old and definitely the fastest on the team,” Altuve said while teammate Jeremy Peña chuckled a few lockers away. “Peña is laughing but I’m faster than him. I’m 10 years older than him and I think I can beat him.”

Said Peña, smiling: “That’s not the question!”

For the record, Peña’s average sprint speed last year was 29.4 feet per second, which is the top 96th percentile in the Major Leagues. Still, Altuve remains in peak physical shape a week before beginning his 14th Major League season.

“I’m feeling really good -- legs, everything,” he said. “I’m healthy.”

Last year, Altuve was limited to 90 games because of a pair of stints on the injured list, but still slashed .311/.393/.522 with 17 homers, 14 steals and 51 RBIs. He missed the first 43 games of the regular season after having surgery to repair a fractured thumb suffered when he was struck by a pitch in the World Baseball Classic and missed 17 games in July with a left oblique strain.

Altuve, who signed a five-year, $125-million contract extension in February, could benefit offensively, as well, from hitting in front of Alvarez. He said he’s expecting to get more pitches to hit while he sets the table atop Houston’s lineup.

“Obviously, I like it,” Altuve said. “Everybody wants a guy like him hitting behind you. I like the way the lineup is. I think we have two of two best lefty hitters in the leagues in [Kyle] Tucker [hitting fourth] and Yordan hitting second. That’s really good.”