When the Marlins selected Brandon Compton in the second round of the 2025 Draft, the big question was would he be able to tap into his top-of-the-line raw power.
The Arizona State product put on a historic performance at the Draft Combine in July, posting the three highest exit velocities in the first three years of the showcase, which helped raise his stock after swing-and-miss concerns in his redshirt sophomore season.
In his first full season of pro ball, the Marlins' No. 13 prospect has lived up to his billing -- while also showing the same red flags -- during his climb from High-A Beloit to Triple-A Jacksonville. The left-handed slugger stands tied for seventh in the Minors with 34 home runs, but also is tied for the 10th-most strikeouts (168) and is tied for eighth in walks (96).
So it's only fitting that he went deep in his first game with the Jumbo Shrimp en route to an 8-4 win over Norfolk on Wednesday at Harbor Park.
COMPLETE MARLINS PROSPECT COVERAGE
Compton's profile is truly one of extremes. His plate appearances end with one of the "three true outcomes" 59.1 percent of the time, behind only Royals No. 5 prospect Blake Mitchell (60.7 percent), Guardians No. 24 prospect Nolan Schubart (60.2 percent) and Brewers No. 5 prospect Andrew Fischer (59.3 percent). For the sake of comparison, Joey Gallo has MLB's highest qualified single-season three-true-outcomes rate (not counting 2020's COVID-shortened 60-game campaign) at 58.8 percent in 2021.
Despite all the whiffs and a hamate injury in Spring Training, Compton has slashed .276/.421/.600 this season, and his 1.021 OPS ranks fifth among qualified Minor Leaguers in full-season ball. The ball just jumps off his bat -- all three of his batted balls on Wednesday qualified as hard-hit, including the 104 mph, 365-foot homer off righty Juaron Watts-Brown (Orioles) in the fifth inning.
"Obviously really impressive even going up a level and getting better," Marlins director of player development Rachel Balkovec told MLB.com's Christina De Nicola. "That's always really impressive, and he made a really -- not a significant swing change, but a distinct swing change -- and we believe or we hope that that made a ton of difference as far as his swing-and-miss and being able to impact balls and not just foul them off, and obviously we saw the results of him getting more solid contact."
Compton's strikeouts have fallen significantly over the season -- he had a 26.9 percent K rate in August after being over 35 percent the previous three months -- but the underlying plate discipline numbers are concerning.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
The 22-year-old has a 57 percent contact rate and a 70 percent in-zone contact rate. Gallo (59.1 percent in 2017) is the only qualified big leaguer to have a contact rate below 60 percent in a 162-game season, and Mark Reynolds (69.5 percent in 2010) is the only such player to have an in-zone contact rate below 70 percent.
Sliders (54 percent whiff rate) and changeups (49 percent) have been particularly troublesome for Compton, and he's hitting just .116/.322/.188 against lefties. His saving grace has been a 23 percent chase rate that would rank in the top 10 in the big leagues.
"That's definitely been something I've got to improve on," Compton told De Nicola last month. "That's been the work. It's hard to hit and slug and hit for power and make good swing decisions. The goal is being able to take good quality swings in good counts and take pitches that are not in the zone that you're looking for."
Compton's approach has worked for him in High-A and Double-A, but time will tell if it holds up against more advanced pitching that won't be so eager to throw him fastballs he can crush. He's a fringy defender in left field, so there's pressure on his promising bat to deliver.
The lack of easy Compton comps make the question of how he will fare against competition at the top level of the Minors all the more fascinating. With about as wide a range of outcomes as any player in the organization, the three true outcomes result will be one to watch.