This story was excerpted from Adam McCalvy’s Brewers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Andrew Fischer’s first professional season has been one for the record books. So why is he on the outside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list looking in?
That’s been a common question for anyone following Fischer’s power spree for High-A Wisconsin and Double-A Biloxi. The Brewers' 2025 first-round Draft pick and No. 5 prospect hit his 44th home run of the season on Thursday night, tying for eighth most in the Minors since the classification system we know today – Triple-A, Double-A, etc. – was established in 1963.
He pulled into a tie with a group that includes Greg Brock, who hit 44 homers in the Dodgers' system in 1982, four years before he was traded to the Brewers. And if Fischer stays scorching hot – the Double-A regular season ends Sept. 13 – he could chase Gorman Thomas, who hit 51 home runs for the Brewers’ Triple-A Sacramento affiliate in 1974, or even Bill McNulty, who hit 55 for Sacramento that same season.
(How is that possible? The Sacramento Solons played three seasons from 1974-76 at Hughes Stadium, a converted football field where the left-field wall was only 232 feet from home plate.)
So why isn’t Fischer higher in the prospect rankings?
We asked a couple of MLB Pipeline’s prospect gurus to dig deeper on Fischer, whose 156 wRC+ going into Thursday led all qualified players currently in the Brewers’ system (Josiah Ragsdale was at 162 before being traded to the Cardinals in the deal for Dustin May and JoJo Romero). Fischer’s 1.049 OPS through Thursday also leads the system and puts him in the top 10 across Minor League qualifiers. Fischer’s .647 slugging percentage leads Milwaukee’s system by a huge margin and ranks in the top five across the Minors.
COMPLETE BREWERS PROSPECT COVERAGE
And, yes, there is swing and miss. Fischer’s 34.1 percent strikeout rate going into the night was fourth highest in the system. His 15.6 percent swinging strike percentage was sixth highest. His 175 strikeouts were sixth most across Minor League Baseball as of Thursday.
That is what gives the prospect watchers some pause.
“Contact rate is the biggie,” said Sam Dykstra, who works tirelessly to maintain MLB Pipeline’s Brewers Top 30 with input from executives and scouts from across the sport.
Fischer’s contact rate as of Thursday was 63.4 percent.
“It’s possible he could make something in the mid-60s work, given how much he pulverizes balls to the pull side,” Dykstra said. “And there have been some gains in Biloxi, so he's still in the Top 100 discussion when we need replacements the rest of the way.”
A low contact rate can certainly work. The lowest rate among Major League qualifiers belongs to White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami (58.2 percent), who leads American League rookies in home runs and OPS. The third lowest belongs to Kyle Schwarber (60.5 percent), and he’s MLB’s home run leader. When you talk to executives about Fischer, Schwarber is the dream comp for the kind of hitter Fischer could become.
The worry, however, is that as Fischer continues to advance to Triple-A and the Majors, where he will face better pitching with better scouting reports and the savvy to execute on those reports, his swing-and-miss could be exploited.
“It’s all about the K’s,” said Jonathan Mayo, one of MLB.com’s original prospect gurus. “I know a certain amount of strikeouts is perfectly acceptable, especially in today’s game. His power is impressive, but with a strikeout rate over 33% in the Minors this year, I’m a little concerned about him getting to it once he’s facing big league pitching. Our list isn’t about who is performing well right now, though that obviously is taken into account. It’s about who we think are going to be the best big leaguers down the road.”
If Fischer keeps doing what he’s been doing, he’ll be a great big leaguer down the road.