Where does the Blue Jays' rotation stand?
Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMathesonBy this point of each season, I can typically look back on the predictions made in Spring Training and ask: What was I thinking?
Baseball humbles you. It keeps you guessing. Just look at the Blue Jays’ rotation.
Some level of regression was widely projected for Alek Manoah, who was coming off a third-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting, but never this. Manoah’s 6.36 ERA sent him all the way back to the Blue Jays’ complex in Dunedin, Fla., a story so unexpected that we may only properly appreciate it years from now, when we look back on everything that happens next.
As we approach the midway point of the season, let’s check in on the state of the rotation, what’s changed since Opening Day and what comes next.
THE GOOD
The Blue Jays enter this weekend’s series with the ninth-best rotation ERA in baseball (4.08) despite Manoah’s number inflating it. They’ve also thrown the second-most innings in the league at 417 1/3, led by the 98 2/3 innings that tie Kevin Gausman for fourth in baseball and put him on track for a run at 200.
Gausman’s ERA sits at 3.10 due to a couple of tough innings this season, but many signs point to him lowering that, most notably his AL-leading 127 strikeouts. Last season, my fifth-place vote was the only one Gausman received for the Cy Young Award. He’s got a shot at a few more in 2023.
The biggest story in this group, though has been José Berríos. La Makina is back.
Berríos is coming off an ugly one against the Marlins, but has given the Blue Jays a 3.64 ERA over 89 innings and is finally back to being the pitcher the Blue Jays signed to a seven-year, $131 million extension. Combine that with Yusei Kikuchi, who has cut his walk rate in half from a year ago and given the Blue Jays a 3.97 ERA, and the Blue Jays have managed to soften the blow of losing Manoah.
If I’d told you prior to the season that the Blue Jays would get two months of a six-plus ERA out of Manoah before shipping him back to the complex, that would have sounded like an absolute crisis. So far, it’s not.
THE CHALLENGES
Depth, depth and depth.
In camp, Drew Hutchison, Zach Thompson, Mitch White and Thomas Hatch were in place as depth. It wasn’t inspiring at the time, but surely, by the time the Blue Jays needed, someone who have stepped forward. That hasn’t necessarily happened.
Hutchison is a free agent and Thompson has a 6.31 ERA in Triple-A. White has spent most of the season injured and is now pitching in shorter stints while Hatch has settled into a bulk role between Triple-A and the big leagues. The Blue Jays were MLB’s last team to need a fifth starter, and when they did, they already had to turn to Trevor Richards as an opener for a bullpen day. That’s miles from ideal, depth-wise.
Further complicating this is the fact that No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann has been on the IL since early May with a biceps injury. There was a world where he could have potentially kicked the door down and impacted this roster in 2023, but even with him expected to build up soon for a return, that’s looking less likely for the gifted lefty.
The short version? There haven’t been any pleasant surprises.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
So much of this depends on Manoah’s return timeline, which should continue to clarify itself over the next week, but it’s difficult to overstate how important Chris Bassitt is to all of this.
The Blue Jays will likely need to address their rotation ahead of the Trade Deadline, but do they need more than simple depth? Think of a postseason series here, and how the Blue Jays match up with other contenders in a Game 3 or Game 4.
Bassitt had an exceptional run of nine starts after his rough debut, posting a 1.83 ERA and showing full control of his massive arsenal. In the five starts since, he’s posted a 6.84 ERA with a few short outings mixed in. Bassitt’s entire career and reputation point toward improving, and the Blue Jays need it to work.
One thing’s for sure: this rotation absolutely cannot weather an injury right now.