Where Brewers stand, other FAQ for final week

September 23rd, 2019

MILWAUKEE -- One week to go.

Six remaining regular-season games will decide the fate of the 2019 Brewers, who stayed in a win column with a weekend sweep of the Pirates before taking their final day off on Monday. They have won eight of their last nine games, 15 of 17 and 18 of 22 to storm back into the postseason picture.

Up next, six games in six days at Cincinnati and Colorado. Here’s a look at the week ahead:

Where do they stand
The Brewers are on shockingly firm ground for a team that was 7 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central and five games back of the playoff field on the morning of Sept. 6. The 86-70 Brewers are in a virtual tie with the 85-69 Nationals for the top NL Wild Card spot, with the Cubs four games back. Milwaukee’s magic number to clinch at least the second Wild Card spot is three. So all the Brewers have to do now is win half of their remaining games and they are in.

But for anyone uncomfortable going on the road for a must-win game -- and that’s everyone, despite the road team winning five of seven NL Wild Card Games -- there is much more in play.

All the Brewers have to do is tie in the standings with the Nationals, and the NL Wild Card Game on Tuesday, Oct. 1 would be at Miller Park by virtue of Milwaukee winning four of six head-to-head games with Washington during the regular season. That 14-inning, 15-14 Brewers win at Nationals Park on Aug. 17 was big. The Nationals were at Miller Park in early May, and the Brewers swept a three-game series during the first of Milwaukee’s season-long seven-game winning streaks. The first two of those games were started by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

But for those hoping to avoid the Wild Card Game entirely -- again, everyone -- the division is still technically in play. The Brewers are three games behind the Cardinals with six to play.

“It’s going to come down to the wire,” Chase Anderson said. “That’s nothing new for this team.”

What's left for the Brewers
Tuesday-Thursday at Cincinnati
Head to head: Tied, 8-8
Run differential: Reds +16

The Reds are 10 games under .500 and coming off a series loss against the Mets, but they have formidable pitching lined up to face Milwaukee. Sonny Gray, set to work opposite Adrian Houser on Tuesday night, is 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four 2019 starts against the Brewers and is coming off an outing against the Cubs in which he allowed six hits or fewer in a 32nd consecutive start to break Nolan Ryan’s Major League record. The Brewers are scheduled to get right-hander Tyler Mahle (2-11, 4.93 ERA) on Wednesday and Luis Castillo (15-7, 3.25 ERA) on Thursday. Brewers pitchers will have to figure out Eugenio Suarez, who has hit eight homers off Milwaukee in 16 games this season on the way to 48 homers overall. The Brewers have Houser, Jordan Lyles and Anderson scheduled to start in the series.

Friday-Sunday at Colorado
Head to head: Tied, 2-2
Run differential: Rockies +7

The last time the Brewers played a game at Coors Field, it was Game 3 of the 2018 NL Division Series, and a champagne celebration ensued. This year the Rockies are a disappointing 67-89 entering the final week, but -- surprise, surprise -- they are an offensive force at Coors Field, where acres of outfield mean weird things can happen. Nolan Arenado has 41 homers in another stellar season, while Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story have each topped 30. This will be a test for the Brewers, who have been carried in September by their expanded pitching staff.

“Obviously, Colorado is an extremely challenging environment for pitching in general,” Ryan Braun said. “We expect two tough series. The goal is just to continue to play the same way we've been playing, approach every game like a must-win and do the things we've been doing, but certainly, we know we have our hands full coming up here.”

What's left for the competition
Cardinals: Monday-Wednesday at Arizona, Friday-Sunday vs. Cubs

Nationals: Monday-Thursday vs. Phillies (including Tuesday doubleheader), Friday-Sunday vs. Indians

Cubs: Tuesday-Thursday at Pirates, Friday-Sunday at Cardinals

How's the health
For the Brewers, it’s getting better, though Christian Yelich won’t be back. Second baseman Keston Hiura is still less than full strength since returning from a left hamstring injury and was replaced by pinch-runners when the situation called for it on the homestand. But he can still hit. Hiura has a hit in each of his six starts since returning to action, including a pair of home runs on the homestand. Backup catcher Manny Pina was able to start a pair of games on the homestand after being down two weeks with a concussion. That’s important because he helps spell hard-worked catcher Yasmani Grandal on occasion, and because Pina hits left-handed pitching. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain is hanging on. He added a bad left ankle to his bad left knee during the homestand, but he was able to play thanks to treatment and a good tape job.

Who's hot and who's not
Pick a pitcher. The Brewers surpassed St. Louis over the weekend for MLB’s best September ERA, at 2.81. Brewers relievers are 12-2 with a 2.82 ERA and an MLB-leading 131 strikeouts and 99 innings for the month, led by lefty Brent Suter’s 14 1/3 innings of one-run ball. After a restful August, Josh Hader has pitched 10 times in September spanning 11 innings, with 22 strikeouts, a 1.64 ERA and a .086 opponents’ average. He’s been complemented by lefty Drew Pomeranz, who leads the staff with 11 September appearances while delivering a 1.80 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Offensively, the Brewers have been led in September by Grandal (six home runs, .973 OPS) and rookie Trent Grisham (.929 OPS), who has thrived in a more prominent role since Yelich was injured.

As for who’s not, shortstop Orlando Arcia is hitting .151 in September, Mike Moustakas is at .191 and Braun at .226, though Moustakas and Braun have each delivered critical home runs. A big weekend against the Pirates helped the team’s offensive numbers for the month, though the Brewers are still 11th of 15 NL teams with a .222 average since Yelich went down.

What's the bottom line
“Nothing's been accomplished yet. That's how we see it. There's a lot of work to do. There are goals we haven't reached yet, so there's no need to look up. Just keep our head down and keep working.” -- Craig Counsell