How Padres may tweak pitching plans in '20

July 12th, 2020

SAN DIEGO -- On the surface, the Padres’ rotation doesn’t change much with a shortened 60-game schedule this year.

Manager Jayce Tingler still plans to employ a five-man rotation, and the competition hasn't changed much since Spring Training. Joey Lucchesi and Cal Quantrill are at the forefront of a race for the No. 5 spot, with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards and Zach Davies rounding out the team's starters.

But while the names and numbers haven’t changed, the strategy will. In a short season with added significance on every game, "it's going to be like 60 games of playoffs," Paddack said.

Tingler expanded on that point Sunday.

"[Our starters] are probably not going to have a lot of wiggle room to work out of jams, depending on where our bullpen situation is," he said. "In general, when we're fresh, we're going to go as long as we can, as hard as we can, and be ready for the next guy up."

That's especially likely to be true at the start of the season, Tingler said. The team's five starters should be built up to their normal Opening Day capacity. But the Padres might play it safe with pitch counts early on, Tingler said, with rosters set to expand to 30 for the first two weeks, then 28 for the next two.

In that sense, the Padres may have been given an advantage by the league’s schedule makers. While rosters are expanded during the first four weeks, they play 27 games in 28 days. But with their standard 26-man squad, they'll have five off-days in a 38-day span.

"We should be in a pretty good spot, as far as build-up, length, all those things, going into the last 20-something games of the season," Tingler said.

Of course, Tingler’s strategy will vary daily, depending on that day's starting pitcher. Front-of-the-rotation arms like Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet are likely to be given a bit more leash to work out of trouble. Garrett Richards, if he can find his pre-surgery form, would join that group, too.

"I honestly don't think it changes for me," Lamet said. "I think, 162 games vs. 60, I'm going out there, giving my best and having that same intensity no matter what."

The back end of the rotation is where Tingler might make more adjustments. Lucchesi's numbers are significantly poorer in his third time through an opposing batting order. If the Padres have extra arms available, why not use them when Lucchesi reaches that point?

Even with a starter like Davies -- whose times-through-the-order splits have always been negligible -- there are advantages to be gained from calling on the bullpen early. Davies is a low-velocity righty who tends to mix sinkers and changeups. Both Matt Strahm and Drew Pomeranz, meanwhile, are lefties who rely heavily on four-seamers and breaking balls. That disparity might keep opposing hitters off-balance.

"I'm sure every starting pitcher would tell you the same thing: I want to go out there and pitch as long as possible," Davies said. "We're going to feel like we can pitch in every inning that we physically can.

"But that doesn't mean that that's how the season's going to work. In 60 games, you can't hit a speed bump. You've got to be dialed in from Game 1. Ting, the front office, the coaching staff -- they're going to make the decisions based on what they feel they can win us a game. And I'm sure in some games, three-inning, four-inning starts aren't going to be out of the question."

Strategy-wise, Tingler has been careful not to rule anything out. Thus, it's fair to wonder how unconventional the new Padres skipper might get with his pitching staff. There's no way of knowing until games begin later this month.

But it sounds as though Tingler will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. He hasn't divulged how many pitchers the team is looking to carry on Opening Day. But given the expanded rosters, that number will be higher than ever.

"I definitely can't give any specifics, because I truly don't know 12 days from now where we're going to be," Tingler said. "But being able to carry four extra players from the normal 26, I expect a couple of those for sure to be pitching, and probably more specific, some guys in the bullpen."

Worth noting

• In an attempt to mimic a road environment, the Padres will play their nightly intrasquad game at the University of San Diego's Fowler Park on Monday night. USD is the team's preseason alternate training site. The Padres' top prospects have gone through daily workouts there, along with pitchers who aren’t throwing that day. But most of the team’s position players have spent camp exclusively at Petco Park.

• Players aren't getting reps against opposing teams like they normally would in a preseason, but a number of Padres have raved about the benefits of facing their own teammates and comparing notes afterward. That includes Lamet.

"I honestly think it's been a really big help," he said. "Even in the middle of a game, I'm talking to Manny [Machado], throwing a fastball and asking, 'Were you on that? Were you late? Were you ready for that pitch?' ... Getting that feedback right away is really great, and I'm asking everyone. As soon as I come off the mound, I'm talking to people and I'm asking [questions]."