Here's how the Padres' roster is shaping up

March 6th, 2019

PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Padres have three weeks to settle on a roster for their March 28 season opener against the Giants. Important decisions loom at catcher, in the rotation and in the bullpen.

At the start of camp, we took a look at how the 25-man squad might shake out. But things have changed significantly over the past month (most notably with the signing of a certain star third baseman).

With that in mind, here's an updated look at the Padres' potential roster plans, including an analysis of what's changed since camp began three weeks ago.

Catcher (2): Austin Hedges, Francisco Mejia

What changed? On the surface, nothing's changed. Hedges and Mejia were the team's two projected catchers last month, and they probably still are. But veteran Chris Stewart has thrown his name into the mix as an excellent defender and a steady influence on a young pitching staff. Mejia, the fourth-ranked prospect in a loaded system, is only 23. If Hedges asserts himself as the clear No. 1, the Padres might opt to get Mejia regular playing time at Triple-A to start the season. (Thus far, that hasn’t happened, and Mejia is 8-for-16 with four extra-base hits thus far this spring.)

First base (1): Eric Hosmer

What changed? New season, same first baseman. Well, he might be changing his swing slightly. But Hosmer is entrenched at first for at least the next four seasons. With the arrival of Manny Machado at third, it's now also very unlikely the Padres carry a backup corner-infield option.

Second base (1): Ian Kinsler

What changed? When the Padres signed him a month ago, Kinsler was projected to serve as something of utility man, and he was expected to get playing time at third base. With Machado on board, that's no longer the case. Kinsler's going to open the season at second. When top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. arrives to play shortstop, Kinsler will battle for playing time with Luis Urias.

Third base (1): Manny Machado

What changed? Everything. The Padres entered camp with third base as their most pressing long-term question. They answered it rather emphatically.

Shortstop (1): Luis Urias

What changed? On Tuesday afternoon, Urias was scratched with what the team called "general fatigue" in both hamstrings. That's somewhat troubling, considering Urias' hamstring history. But the Padres are optimistic he could be back on the field later this week. In any case, Urias is expected to open the season at short, while Tatis starts at Triple-A El Paso. But Tatis has raked in Spring Training. He entered play Wednesday with a 1.048 OPS and two home runs.

Utility (2): Greg Garcia, Jose Pirela

What changed? The Machado signing had a serious impact on the roster chances of several fringe infielders. There’s no longer an obvious place for Ty France and Jason Vosler, who play both corner spots. Esteban Quiroz, who struggled defensively at second before he was sent down, could've seen time at third, too. Garcia and Pirela -- the two most versatile options of the bunch -- are now the clear favorites for the two backup infield places. (If Tatis isn't a starter, he's not making the club Opening Day.)

Outfield (5): Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero

What changed? The Padres entered camp with six outfielders vying for five spots. That was before Travis Jankowski sustained a wrist fracture that will sideline him for three months. It's still unclear how the Padres will line up their starting outfield during the season. But it's become pretty clear which five outfielders will break camp with the club.

Starting pitcher (5): Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Jacob Nix, Chris Paddack, Robbie Erlin or Matt Strahm

What changed? The Padres aren't calling Lucchesi and Lauer "locks." But barring an injury or something unforeseen, that's what they are. The rest of the rotation remains an enigma, with nine pitchers fighting for three spots. Both Erlin and Strahm are looking to establish themselves as starters. (For the purposes of this exercise, let's say one does, and one goes back to the 'pen.) That leaves two places down to spring performance, and both Paddack and Nix have impressed -- though Paddack's innings will be monitored closely this season.

Relief pitcher (7): Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Adam Warren, Aaron Loup, Robert Stock, Phil Maton, Erlin or Strahm

What changed? Two in, two out: Loup and Warren signed after camp began, but Jose Castillo (left flexor strain) and Miguel Diaz (right knee surgery) will miss the start of the season. The Padres open the year with games on eight consecutive days, but their April schedule is otherwise light. Plus, they have a number of optionable relievers, which makes it likely they carry seven pitchers in the bullpen instead of eight. If Erlin or Strahm makes the rotation, then there's one spot available. An experienced Maton holds the upper hand.

Here's the roster projection in full, including a few players expected to open the season on the injured list:

CATCHERS
Austin Hedges
Francisco Mejia

INFIELDERS
Eric Hosmer
Ian Kinsler
Luis Urias
Manny Machado
Jose Pirela
Greg Garcia

OUTFIELDERS
Wil Myers
Hunter Renfroe
Franmil Reyes
Manuel Margot
Franchy Cordero

STARTING PITCHERS
Joey Lucchesi
Eric Lauer
Jacob Nix
Chris Paddack
Robbie Erlin or Matt Strahm

RELIEF PITCHERS
Kirby Yates
Craig Stammen
Adam Warren
Aaron Loup
Robert Stock
Phil Maton
Robbie Erlin or Matt Strahm

INJURED LIST
RHP Garrett Richards
RHP Dinelson Lamet
RHP Miguel Diaz
LHP Jose Castillo
OF Travis Jankowski