What's next for Weathers, Padres' rotation?

June 16th, 2023

SAN DIEGO -- About 10 minutes after first pitch on Thursday evening, the Padres had already dug themselves a five-run deficit. They spent the next three hours doing their best to fight out of it.

To no avail. Manny Machado's three-run homer, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s dazzling defending in right, Ha-Seong Kim's electric baserunning -- all for naught. The Padres dropped their series finale against the Guardians, 8-6, on Thursday at Petco Park.

“We made it a close game, down 5-0,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said. “So I don’t think it was one where we didn’t have a good approach throughout the game. … I’d take more out of it, how we came back after being down.”

The Padres had their chances after they'd made it close. They failed on a safety squeeze in the fifth inning. (A high-risk play, asking a 42-year-old Nelson Cruz to scamper home.) They ran themselves out of a potential rally in the sixth after Juan Soto was caught stealing third base.

There were plenty of reasons the Padres lost on Thursday, beside the starting pitcher. But, well, it's hard to win when your starting pitcher allows more runs than outs recorded.

Such was the case with Ryan Weathers, who surrendered six runs over 1 2/3 innings. His season ERA now sits north of 6, and his recent performance raises notable questions in the short, medium and long term. Here’s a look at each.

Short term: What happens next time through the rotation?
Three hours before first pitch on Thursday, the Padres hastily cleared the field and set up a few screens behind home plate. About a dozen players gathered to watch, as Seth Lugo took the mound at Petco Park. He would proceed to throw three innings in a simulated game, facing Jake Cronenworth, Austin Nola, Nelson Cruz and bench coach/offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty.

Lugo appears on track to return from his right calf strain very soon, perhaps next week in San Francisco. Weathers was recalled largely to fill Lugo’s place in the rotation. It stands to reason that upon Lugo’s return, Weathers would give way on the roster.

“Bottom line is I’ve just kind of sucked two out of the last three outings,” Weathers said. “I’ve got stuff I’ve got to work on.”

Likely at Triple-A El Paso. But Melvin noted that no decision had been made in the immediate aftermath of Weathers’ start. Still, even if Lugo were to slide into the rotation, the Padres are in the midst of 13 games in 13 days. They’ve generally preferred to give their starters an extra day’s rest between starts. With all of Weathers’ recent struggles, they may not have that option.

Medium term: Do the Padres need a rotation upgrade at the Deadline?
Sure, the Padres might have a fully healthy rotation next week. But they're playing with fire if they're expecting to use a five-man staff the rest of the way -- and for that entire staff to remain healthy.

Pitching depth, as the Padres learned the hard way down the stretch in 2021, is paramount.

They don't seem to have much of it right now. Their front-end arms have been sharp lately. But beyond a starting five of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Lugo, there isn’t enough depth to feel comfortable entering the stretch run.

The Trade Deadline looms a month and a half away. The Padres don’t have too many glaring needs on their roster. Maybe pitching becomes the priority -- whether it’s a sixth starter, or a back-end reliever, whose presence could allow Nick Martinez to build back up into a starting role.

Long term: When will Weathers take that next step?
“I could look at it and lay down and fold,” Weathers said. “But that’s not in my DNA. I’ve got stuff I’ve got to work on. I’m glad I’m not a finished product.”

Worth remembering that. Weathers is still only 23. His days in the current rotation appear to be numbered. But he’s a young left-hander with upside and years of control. He might still be an integral piece in the future rotation.

But how to extract that version of Weathers, a former first-round pick? In 42 appearances across three seasons in the big leagues, he’s posted a 5.66 ERA.

“I’ve got stuff to work on,” Weathers said, matter-of-factly. “Just take this as a learning experience and go work at my craft and be the pitcher that I aspire to be. The goal is to help this team win ballgames.”