How Phillies' rotation became National League's best
This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ANAHEIM -- Dave Dombrowski has seen enough baseball in his lifetime to understand the importance of quality starting pitching.
Great starting pitching explains why the Phillies are 20-11. It is one of their best starts in franchise history.
The Phillies’ rotation finished April with a 2.47 ERA, which is the second-best mark in the Major Leagues, behind the Red Sox’s 2.00. It threw 185 2/3 innings, which leads MLB (the Mariners are second with 176 innings).
“We have talented pitchers,” Dombrowski said recently. “But they’re not just throwers. They’re pitchers. We emphasize getting deep into games, even in the Minor League system. There’s limits on it, but we do that. And to do that, you have to pitch, not just throw. It’s a mindset that you’re trying to achieve.”
The Phillies’ starters are pitchers. As a group, they do not throw the ball particularly hard. Their four- and two-seam fastballs average a combined 92.5 mph, which ranks 24th.
Still, they have the second-best strikeout rate (25.9 percent) and the second-lowest opponents’ average exit velocity against (87.0 mph). They also generate the third-most swings out of the zone (chase rate) at 30.7 percent.
If they’re not striking out batters, they’re getting them to miss the barrel and hit the ball on the ground. Cristopher Sánchez’s ground-ball rate (62.2 percent) is the second best out of 126 pitchers (minimum 20 innings pitched). Ranger Suárez is third (60.8 percent), Wheeler is 12th (52.8 percent), Spencer Turnbull is 21st (49.4 percent) and Nola is 38th (45.9 percent).
Here are the many ways the Phillies’ starters are doing it:
Cristopher Sánchez
Sánchez’s start Monday against the Angels jumped out because he has one of baseball’s best changeups, but he threw it only 15 times (out of 75 total pitches).
“If that’s his best pitch, he’s got to use it,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “If you’ve got a guy with the best slider in the world, but the other team can hit sliders, I’m staying with my best pitch. And if I get beat on it, that’s the way it is.”
Sánchez’s changeup’s whiff rate (40 percent) is ninth-best among pitchers who have thrown it at least 50 times. But Sánchez’s slider has improved, too. Last year, opponents batted .250 with a .456 slugging percentage against it. They swung and missed it 29.7 percent of the time. This year, opponents are batting .238 with a .381 slugging percentage against it. Its whiff rate is 35.1 percent.
Sánchez worked on a cutter this spring, which he has used sparingly. But Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Sánchez’s cutter work has given him a better feel for and improved his slider.
Aaron Nola
Nola allowed 11 hits and seven runs (six earned) in 4 1/3 innings against the Braves on March 30. He has a 2.06 ERA in five starts since.
The Braves went 5-for-11 against Nola’s curveball on March 30. Since then, opponents are 6-for-44 (.136) with 18 strikeouts against it. Out of 103 pitchers who faced at least 100 batters through April, Nola’s .163 opponents’ batting average tied for eighth.
Ranger Suárez
Suárez had his 32-inning scoreless streak come to an end on Saturday. It was the longest by a Phillies pitcher since Cliff Lee threw 34 consecutive scoreless innings in 2011.
Suárez is inducing ridiculously weak contact. He has made 79 career starts, including the postseason. He has had six starts where the opponents’ average exit velocity is under 80 mph. Three of those six have come in his last four starts:
April 11 vs. Pirates: 76.4 mph (career best)
April 16 vs. Rockies: 79.4 mph
April 22 vs. Reds: 77.2 mph
Suárez’s overall average exit velocity against (81.9 mph) is not only the best in MLB; it’s the best mark by any starting pitcher in any season (minimum 50 balls in play) since Statcast started measuring exit velocities in 2015.
Spencer Turnbull
Turnbull could join the bullpen following Tuesday’s start in Anaheim, with Taijuan Walker back and the Phillies going with a five-man rotation. But the Phils have not used fewer than nine starters in a season since 2011, so don’t be surprised to see Turnbull back at some point.
Turnbull’s sweeper has been a huge part of his success. Opponents are batting .125 with a .185 slugging percentage against it. But Turnbull’s other secondary pitches have been effective, too. He has thrown a combined 126 curveballs, changeups and sliders. He has allowed only two hits off them.
Zack Wheeler
He introduced a splitter this season and it is getting him even more swings at pitches out of the zone. Wheeler’s chase rate (33.8 percent) is 10th out of 140 pitchers (minimum 150 pitches out of the zone). His splitter’s whiff rate (35.9 percent) is just behind his sweeper (45.5 percent) and curveball (40.7 percent).
Wheeler learned a splitter because he wanted to give left-handed hitters something that darted away from them. Lefties batted .261 with a .722 OPS against Wheeler last season. They are batting .203 with a .632 OPS against him this year.