How Reds’ ‘infield rotation’ could shake out

January 17th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon's Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- When Spring Training arrives, Reds manager David Bell will likely discuss his plan to play his infielders as some sort of "infield rotation." The vast combinations Bell has could resemble the reels of a slot machine.

Six infielders are expected to compete for playing time at four positions, plus designated hitter. They are Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and free-agent acquisition Jeimer Candelario.

That group doesn't include Spencer Steer, who is expected to become a full-time outfielder. Steer, of course, can also play any infield spot except shortstop. Also missing is Nick Martini, who plays both at first base and in the outfield.

If Bell pulls the lever, the assortment of infielders could spin these multitude of lines:

  • 1B Candelario, 2B India, SS De La Cruz, 3B Marte, DH Encarnacion-Strand
  • 1B CES, 2B McLain, SS De La Cruz, 3B Candelario, DH India
  • 1B India, 2B McLain, SS Marte, 3B Candelario, DH CES
  • 1B CES, 2B India, SS McLain, 3B De La Cruz, DH Candelario
  • 1B Candelario, 2B India, SS McLain, 3B Marte, DH De La Cruz
  • 1B CES, 2B India, SS McLain, 3B Candelario, DH Marte
  • 1B India, 2B McLain, SS De La Cruz, 3B CES, DH Marte

I'm sure there are others I've left out. Courtesy of MLB.com’s David Adler and Baseball Savant, there are a couple of options that give Bell the best all-around defensive alignment, based on the six players' Outs Above Average at each infield position.

Option 1
1B: CES (-1 OAA at 1B in 2023)
2B: McLain (0 OAA at 2B in 2023)
SS: Marte (0 OAA at SS in 2023)
3B: De La Cruz (+3 OAA at 3B in 2023)
Total: +2 OAA

Option 2
1B: CES (-1 OAA at 1B)
2B: McLain (0 OAA at 2B)
SS: De La Cruz (+1 OAA at SS)
3B: Candelario (+2 OAA at 3B)
Total: +2 OAA

Here's how each of the Reds' fielders ranked at each infield position in 2023:

1B
CES: -1 OAA
Candelario: -2 OAA
India: N/A

2B
McLain: 0 OAA
India: -6 OAA (-23 for his career)

SS
McLain: +2 OAA
De La Cruz: +1 OAA
Marte: 0 OAA

3B
De La Cruz: +3 OAA
Candelario: +2 OAA
CES: +1 OAA
Marte: -2 OAA

Keep in mind that India could also get time in left field, depending on how he looks there in camp. Steer could also factor around the infield later in games, if needed.

Whichever combo is utilized, the Reds' infield must improve from the group's performance in 2023. Cincinnati's -25 OAA was tied with the Angels for second worst in MLB.

As for the best alignment offensively, there are a few ways that Bell could go.

Here are the six players ranked by their OPS+ in 2023:

McLain: 129 OPS+
Marte: 120 OPS+
Candelario: 119 OPS+
CES: 113 OPS+
India: 100 OPS+
De La Cruz: 89 OPS+

Based on that, the Reds' best offensive infield would be:

1B: CES
2B: McLain
SS: Marte
3B: Candelario
DH: India

That would get the four best-hitting infielders into the lineup, and that's also close to the best defensive alignment. Obviously, De La Cruz is missing from this group after he struggled throughout the second half following his spectacular start.

If De La Cruz shows offensive improvement, this could be an enticing setup that combines the best mix of offense, defense and upside.

1B: CES
2B: McLain
SS: Marte
3B: De La Cruz
DH: Candelario (or India)