3 keys for Red Sox in pennant pursuit

October 14th, 2021

HOUSTON -- The Red Sox, after upending their rival Yankees in the American League Wild Card Game and taking down the 100-win Rays in four games in the AL Division Series, now have an even more formidable challenge if they want to get to the World Series for the fifth time in the 2000s.

The Astros are battle-tested and loaded, particularly on offense. When these squads matched up in the regular season, Houston looked like the better team, winning five of the seven games while outscoring Boston, 42-25.

However, the squads haven’t met since June 10, and those games mean nothing going forward. Here is the path for Boston to do what it did in 2018, and beat the Astros in the AL Championship Series.

Control the strike zone on offense
Red Sox manager Alex Cora has said time and again that the success of his team’s offense is how well Boston controls the strike zone. When the Sox did that this season, they were a scary team, and never was that more evident than in the Division Series conquest against the Rays.

The Boston bats can be exposed when hitters get jumpy and start trying to do too much. That’s one of the things that happened May 31-June 2, when the Astros took the first three games of a four-game set against the Sox at Minute Maid Park. The scoring output for the Red Sox in those three games? Two runs, one run and one run. Once they got back to who they were in the series finale, the Sox pulled out a 5-1 victory. A week later in Boston, the Red Sox outslugged the Astros, 12-8, salvaging the finale of that three-game set after losing the first two.

One component Boston didn’t have when last these two teams met was , who was acquired at the Trade Deadline. The lefty slugger is now leading off and is an on-base machine. No. 2 hitter wasn’t close to the same hitter when the Red Sox played the Astros in the regular season as he is now. If there was such a thing as an MVP for the Division Series, Hernández, who played against the Astros in the ’17 World Series, would have won, hands down.

Boston’s best hitter is , and he’s been slowed at times with a right forearm injury that has hampered his ability to get to high fastballs since the final week of the regular season. However, Devers is still dangerous, and it showed when he belted a three-run homer in the Game 4 clincher against the Rays.

Play clean defense
The near-fatal flaw for the Red Sox in 2021 was a porous defense. Give Boston credit for cleaning that up in the ALDS, making just one error in four games.

That error was committed by Schwarber, who is learning on the fly how to play first base. Cora will be aggressive in getting Bobby Dalbec to first base when the Red Sox have a lead in the late innings. In fact, there’s a chance Dalbec will start at first in Game 1 against a lefty starter, in which case Schwarber would play left field. Devers is another player who is error prone, but he was locked in at the hot corner during the last round.

Against an offense like the Astros, the Red Sox can’t afford to make physical or mental mistakes in the field. In Game 4, when the Rays surged back to tie the game, threw home when he didn’t have a play, and Tampa Bay had the potential go-ahead run on second base with nobody out in the top of the eighth. Fortunately, Boston had on the mound, and he didn’t buckle. It’s doubtful the Red Sox can be successful in this series if they give the Astros extra outs.

Patch up the bullpen
As adeptly as Cora navigated his bullpen in the ALCS, his relievers still sprung a couple of leaks that could have cost the Red Sox either of the last two games.

In Game 3, the Rays rallied from a two-run deficit against in the eighth. Thanks to one of the strangest ground-rule doubles in history, Tampa Bay was unable to take the lead in the top of the 13th. won it for the Sox with a walk-off homer.

Then, in Game 4, Boston had a 5-0 lead when the bullpen created more stress. , who has powerful stuff, allowed a two-run homer to Wander Franco, which is understandable given how gifted Tampa Bay’s young star is. More problematic was another breakdown in the eighth inning, when allowed a two-run lead to disappear.

In the regular season, the Red Sox lost an AL-high 10 games when leading after seven innings. They’ll need to avoid that scenario against Houston.

Cora has what is pretty safe to call a lockdown reliever for the ninth inning in Whitlock. But Boston’s bullpen will have to be reliable in the sixth, seventh and eighth to have a chance against the Astros.

As always, Cora will be creative, and you can expect starting pitchers will be asked to get big outs on days they aren’t starting.