Inbox: Early favorites for AL and NL ROY

Inbox: Early favorites for AL and NL ROY

May 3rd, 2024

Our first mock draft of the spring is out and, as always, it has elicited many opinions. I wanted to make things easier for folks who haven’t weighed in yet and wanted to. For your copy/paste pleasure:

There is no way the [INSERT TEAM NAME HERE] would ever take [INSERT PLAYER NAME OR POSITION HERE]. You guys don’t know what you’re talking about.

- OR -

I’d love it if [INSERT PLAYER NAME OR POSITION HERE] got to the [INSERT TEAM NAME HERE]! Can’t imagine it happening, but this mock is awesome.

Keep the comments coming. That’s why we do these, to stir up debate. Hopefully this week’s collection of MLB Pipeline Inbox questions will do the same.

What's your early AL and NL Rookie of the Year rankings as they stand right now? Are there prospects that have yet to debut in the Majors this year that you believe will get called up and put themselves in the Rookie of the Year conversations? -- @StevieDAles97

I’ll take the second part first because I think the only person who could fit in that category is Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes. We now know he’ll be pitching for Triple-A Indianapolis this Sunday, giving all of us a brief respite from the ticking clock in our heads about his big league debut. His next possible first start could be next weekend at home against the Cubs and then the Pirates go on the road in Milwaukee and Chicago. I have to think the Pirates would want him to kick things off in Pittsburgh, but will they want to wait until they are back home against the Giants on May 21? Either way, given how he’s dominated in the Minors, he could put up impressive-enough numbers to figure into the NL Rookie race. Here’s how I would rank both leagues' rookies -- leaving Skenes out for now -- to date (going five deep in each league based on performance and who I think will sustain it/improve):

NL





Others I considered: Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, Masyn Winn, Blaze Alexander

AL





Others I considered: Luis Gil, Justin Slaten, Nolan Schanuel

What should we make of Cam Collier’s red hot start? Is he tracking back to the Top 100 list? -- @jason_redsfan

While I do want to be cautious and not go too crazy after a month of a Minor League season, let’s just say I’m ready to add cars to the Collier bandwagon. Currently the No. 7 prospect on a good Reds Top 30, he was our choice for the hottest hitting prospect in each system this week. He leads all Reds Top 30 hitters in total bases, home runs and RBIs, currently carrying a .297/.337/.582 line into this weekend’s action. Would I like it if he were drawing a few more walks? Sure, but the strikeout rate isn’t too bad at all and it’s exciting to see him tapping into that power. Keep in mind he’s 19 for all of this season because he reclassified early for the 2022 Draft -- and Dayton isn’t typically a great ballpark for power, and the Midwest League often leans pitching-heavy. So I’m encouraged, and I do think he is on the “watch list” to get added to the Top 100 again in the future.

Where would Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon rank on the top 100 MLB prospects today? -- @Blahbla92342524

This is something we’ll obviously tackle after the 2024 Draft, but it’s always a fun exercise to look at the top Draft prospects, and Condon and Bazzana are No. 1 and 2 on our Draft Top 150 (and I had them going 1-2 in that first mock draft).

Last year, the top five of the Draft -- and we’ve spoken enough about how special that quintet is -- landed at 3 (Paul Skenes), 4 (Dylan Crews), 13 (Wyatt Langford), 15 (Max Clark) and 16 (Walker Jenkins). Langford made it clear pretty quickly that we had him too low and we addressed that this preseason. All five are still on the list from Skenes at 3 to Clark at 12. I bring this up because I don’t think I’d put either of this year’s top players ahead of that fab five. While both Condon and Bazzana are having extraordinary seasons, I think I’d set the bar for them behind Clark. James Wood is currently 13 and I’d probably put him ahead, but sticking Condon and Bazzana ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong at 15 seems like a decent fit.

Do the Guardians take C. Condon? -- @Uncle_Tom_Hicks

We answered this one on this week’s episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, when we had Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith on as a guest, too, so give that a listen. It’s clear by now that you know I think they will, or at least they might at this point. Most teams think Condon is the best player in the Draft, the numbers he’s putting up are extraordinary, and he’s proven to be more athletic than some anticipated, quelling worries about him not having a defensive home. Add in the fact that the Guardians have a lot of left-handed bats in the big leagues and the system, adding some serious right-handed thump seems to make a ton of sense.