SAN DIEGO -- Last postseason, the Padres and Cubs staged a tense and dramatic Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field. They were separated by a single run across three games in the type of series that left you wanting more.
Sure enough, a year later we’re getting a rematch. This time, in San Diego.
For the second straight year, the Padres and Cubs will meet in the National League Wild Card Series, beginning Tuesday with Game 1 at Petco Park. Just like last year, the winner of the series will face the Brewers in the NL Division Series.
“Should be a great series,” said Padres manager Craig Stammen. “They’re a great team, they’ve got a lot of great players, a good coaching staff. It’ll be tightly contested. They’re the ones that knocked us out of the postseason last year. So we’re going to have to bring our ‘A’ game.”
Likewise, the Cubs know that they have a challenge ahead, given how San Diego soared to the top of the Wild Card standings in September.
“The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball the past few weeks,” Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd said. “That’s not surprising. We’ve seen them firsthand – this year, last year. I always firmly believe that it’s more about what’s in this clubhouse and less about what’s on the other side. Take care of your business. Understand your strengths in those situations. And go for it.”
Who are the starting pitchers?
Cubs: The Cubs have not yet announced who will take the ball in the Wild Card Series. Candidates for Game 1 would include Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA) and right-hander Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51 ERA). Righty Clay Holmes (6-8, 3.29 ERA), lefty Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.77 ERA) and lefty David Peterson (9-8, 4.79 ERA) would be available as early as Game 2. And depending on how the first two games go, that’s the pool of starters for a potential Game 3. The Cubs are also monitoring Gausman (soreness in his non-throwing shoulder) to gauge his availability.
Padres: Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA) gets the ball for Game 1, coming off a stellar season in which he established himself as the Padres’ ace and the stopper in a rotation that featured major question marks throughout the summer. The rest of the series is a bit less clear. Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA) missed five months with a flexor strain, but has been solid since his return and is the likeliest candidate for a Game 2 start. Game 3 might be a decision between Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59) and Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.56 ERA).
What might the starting lineups look like?
Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a catalyst of historic proportions in his MVP-caliber season, becoming just the seventh player in MLB history with at least 40 homers and 40 steals in a season. Alex Bregman is only recently back from sustaining multiple fractures in his left cheek area after being hit by a foul ball. It’s unclear if he will play third, or remain in the DH slot for now. Both Pedro Ramírez and Matt Shaw would be options at third if Bregman is not at the hot corner. Tyrone Taylor could start against a lefty over Ian Happ, while Michael Conforto offers another experienced bat off the bench.
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF
3. Michael Busch, 1B
4. Alex Bregman, DH
5. Ian Happ, LF
6. Nico Hoerner, 2B
7. Pedro Ramírez, 3B
8. Carson Kelly, C
9. Dansby Swanson, SS
Padres: Obviously, the Padres’ Game 1 lineup will be largely dependent on which pitcher the Cubs throw at them for the series opener. They’ve got plenty of flexibility to play matchups against left- and right-handed pitching. Here’s one guess, based on the seemingly likely possibility that the Cubs would throw a left-hander in Game 1.
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Xander Bogaerts, SS
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, LF
6. Luis Campusano, C
7. Austin Hays, DH
8. Samad Taylor LF
9. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Cubs: The North Siders do not have a set closer, so there is a lot of mixing and matching depending on lineup pockets and matchups. Daniel Palencia has been looking more like himself of late –- following multiple injury setbacks this year -– and he was utilized as a midgame fireman of sorts by Counsell in the playoffs last year. Ryan Rolison has turned into a leverage lefty, while righty Ryan Zeferjahn (added at the Trade Deadline) is also a late-inning option. Righty Jacob Webb and lefty Caleb Thielbar have late-inning experience, but have endured some recent struggles. Beyond the starters who may help the bullpen in the playoffs, Chicago also has a few multi-inning arms (Javier Assad, Edward Cabrera, Aaron Civale and Colin Rea) who are candidates for the postseason relief corps.
Padres: The Padres clinched early, then clinched home-field advantage on Saturday night, so they’re able to align their bullpen as necessary. And they’ll probably use it in the same way they did for both of those clinching games: Mason Miller has the ninth, with Adrian Morejon as the setup man. Lefty Yuki Matsui and righty Bradgley Rodriguez will cover the middle innings. Throw Jason Adam into that mix as well, having just returned from a right shoulder strain. Wandy Peralta and David Morgan could be available for lower leverage.
Any injuries of note?
Cubs: Gausman injured his left shoulder on a diving tag play in his most recent start and has dealt with soreness in the last few days. He threw a bullpen session on Sunday and things went well, but he is continuing to be monitored. The veteran righty would be a candidate for any one of the Wild Card Series starts, so his status could have a ripple effect. Bregman returned to the lineup on Friday as a DH after the scary scene last weekend, when he was hit in the face by a foul ball while waiting on deck in Cincinnati. Bregman was incredibly cleared to play after avoiding all the worst-case scenarios. On Sunday, he played again and homered in each of his first two at-bats. Swanson returned on Sept. 18 from a left oblique injury that cost him a month, but has looked fine since being activated.
Padres: Casey Mize (right ankle sprain), Lucas Giolito (right elbow inflammation) and Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery) might not have factored into the Padres’ playoff rotation plans anyway, but they’re all on the IL and won’t be available. In the ‘pen, the absence of Jeremiah Estrada (right shoulder impingement) looms large. Offensively, San Diego has a relatively clean bill of health. Miguel Andujar (right wrist fracture) remains on the IL, but seems fully ready to go. (Whether he makes the Wild Card Series roster is another question.)
Who is hot and who is not?
Cubs: To show you how great Crow-Armstrong has been this season, the .894 OPS he has posted through 23 games in September is actually a drop-off from his overall production. In the final month, going into Game 162, the center fielder had seven homers and nine steals (giving him 45-41 on the year), plus 12 walks, 16 RBIs and 19 runs scored. Bregman had a .913 OPS in September entering Sunday. On the mound, Peterson (1.27 ERA in his last four) and Imanaga (1.96 ERA with one homer allowed in 23 innings in his past four starts, entering Sunday’s one-inning tuneup) have been the standouts in the rotation.
Padres: Remember when Fernando Tatis Jr. still hadn’t homered into late May? Safe to say, he’s tapped into his power once again. Tatis launched 20 home runs after the All-Star break, finishing the season with 25. Jackson Merrill has also been red-hot of late, and Manny Machado hit his 30th homer of the season on Saturday night. Essentially, the Padres’ superstars, who struggled for so much of the first half are struggling no more.
Anything else fans might want to know?
• The Cubs won five of the six regular-season matchups between the clubs. Chicago took two of three from April 27-29 at Petco Park and then swept the Padres in a three-game series from June 29-July 1 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs outscored the Padres, 55-28, in the six games, but that is skewed by a 23-3 win for the North Siders on July 1.
• The Padres and Cubs have met twice in the postseason -- last year’s Wild Card Series victory for Chicago, and San Diego’s 1984 NLCS victory. They’ve played eight total games across those two series, with each team winning four. The last time they met in San Diego, the Padres won all three games at home in that series at Jack Murphy Stadium.
• The Cubs were baseball’s best defense in ‘26 and it wasn’t even close. Chicago’s +70 Fielding Run Value and +72 Outs Above Average set single-season records since Statcast has been compiling that data (starting in 2016). For perspective, the Cardinals ranked second in FRV (+45) and the D-backs were second in OAA (+43) this year.
• Since the start of September, the Padres’ offense is tied for the best in baseball, per wRC+ (an all-encompassing hitting metric). It’s a stark turnaround for a unit that ranked among the worst in the Majors during the first half of the season. The Padres are going to need more from that unit than they got last season, when they totaled five runs across their three playoff games.
• This will mark Bregman’s 10th straight year playing in a postseason game. Per MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, he joins Mariano Rivera (13), Derek Jeter (12), Bernie Williams (12), Jorge Posada (11), Chipper Jones (11), Tom Glavine (11), Mike Stanton (11), Kenley Jansen (10), Andruw Jones (10) and Greg Maddux (10) with at least 10 straight years playing in the playoffs (in seasons the MLB postseason occurred).
• Rookie catcher Ethan Salas, the Padres top prospect, is unlikely to start Game 1. But if he appears in any game behind the plate, he’d be the youngest player to catch a postseason game in MLB history. That mark currently belongs to Bob Didier, who was 20 years, 230 days old at the start of the 1969 NLCS. Salas will be 20 years, 120 days old on Tuesday.