DETROIT -- Who led Tigers pitchers in games started, innings pitched, wins and strikeouts?
The answer is Framber Valdez, just as everyone might have figured when the Tigers signed him in February.
Very little else about Valdez's first season in Detroit satisfied expectations.
The Tigers signed the two-time All-Star just before Spring Training to round out a formidable rotation, featuring back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, former first overall pick Casey Mize, 2024 World Series champion Jack Flaherty and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. But another reason for Valdez's three-year, $115 million contract was the belief that he could be Detroit’s ace in a post-Skubal era. His durability and consistency over eight years in Houston provided a model of stability.
Fast forward eight months, and Skubal and Mize were traded at the Deadline, Flaherty is set to become a free agent and Verlander retired. Detroit’s rotation now features promising young arms in Jackson Jobe, Troy Melton and River Ryan alongside Keider Montero. All have nasty stuff, but none have had a full season in a big-league rotation.
Valdez provides a foundation. But he also provided as many questions as answers when president of baseball operations Scott Harris and manager A.J. Hinch conducted their end-of-season press conference last week.
“[Valdez is] the only starter we had that stayed healthy the entire year,” Harris said. “He made 31 starts for us against the backdrop of all the injuries. He was a stable, innings-producing arm for us, and I think in 27 of the 31 starts he gave up four or fewer [earned] runs. That's not good enough. He would tell you that's not good enough, too. We can help support him better, but I do think it is notable that he remains the horse that can give us innings every time we need him to.”
Valdez topped 170 innings for the fifth consecutive season, and made 31 starts for the fourth time in that span. The only rotation turn he missed came during his five-game suspension for hitting Red Sox batter Trevor Story with a pitch.
His durability had value when the rest of the rotation was in flux.
“I’m really proud of that,” Valdez said after his final start, through Tigers director of Spanish communications Carlos Guillen. “I prepare the whole year to do my best and be on the mound every time I can. It is the result of working out and preparing and staying focused and being on the mound.”
How he performed during those starts was less reliable. Valdez’s 4.03 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 1.362 WHIP and 8.8 hits per nine innings were his highest since his rookie season in 2019. His 17.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings were the lowest of his career, both steep drops from consistent rates over the previous three seasons. More concerning for a sinkerballer, his 56.3 percent ground-ball rate, according to Statcast, was the second-lowest of his career; his 18.3 fly-ball rate his second-highest.
Thus, while they’re glad to be bringing back Valdez, they’re also tasked with bringing back the form that made him an All-Star with the Astros.
Stuffwise, the pitches are there. Valdez gave up a .314 average and .363 wOBA off of his sinker this year, yet opponents hit his sinker for an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour, nearly a full tick lower than last year and one of the lowest marks of his career. Likewise, his 41.9 percent hard-hit rate was down 4.4 points from last year.
One key difference was that opponents were able to lift the ball more; his average launch angle of 5.4 degrees was easily the highest of his career.
Another difference, and one that Harris mentioned, was Valdez’s opening innings. His 6.75 ERA in the first innings of games ranked fifth-highest among qualified MLB pitchers, his .318 first-inning batting average second highest.
“We simulated some things in his warm-up,” said Hinch. “We continued to try to get him to land his breaking ball early in the game, as opposed to maybe the broader view of we're going to establish our sinker. Everybody goes to the plate with no secrets against Framber, and so we didn't really push the adjustment maybe as quickly as we [could]. Once we did, we did see a run of success for him.”
Valdez posted a 1.93 ERA over four September starts with twice as many ground balls as fly balls after a midseason adjustment to the middle of the pitching rubber. He threw more curveballs (38 percent) than sinkers (35.2 percent) in that period, while mixing in more four-seamers, something Valdez worked on all year to change eye levels from his sinker.
“If you look at the characteristics of his stuff, nothing has changed for him,” Harris said. “If anything, the move on the rubber to help him get his curveball back has really helped him, and we need to translate some of those adjustments into next year.”
That provides a building block. Get the September '26 version of Framber for nearly a full season, and the Tigers rotation looks much more reliable.