Tigers see positives in Wentz despite '23 struggles

September 13th, 2023

DETROIT --  hadn’t pitched with a multirun lead since July 29 in Miami, his last win. He hadn’t pitched with a lead of any sort since Aug. 18 in Cleveland. So when the Tigers posted five consecutive hits and three first-inning runs off Reds starter Brandon Williamson on Tuesday, it felt like a breath of fresh air and a badly needed boost of confidence.

Then came a Zack Short throwing error to lead off the next inning, a one-out walk to Elly De La Cruz and an 0-2 fastball in the middle of the zone that TJ Friedl hit for a two-out RBI single.

By the time the Reds were done in the second, the lead was gone, and it took a running catch from Parker Meadows to keep the game tied. Four more two-out baserunners and two more runs chased Wentz in the third inning. 

A fifth-inning Tigers rally and stingy relief work took Wentz off the hook in an eventual 6-5 loss, but it was little solace for him afterward.

“Not very good,” Wentz summarized his outing, with five runs (two earned) on six hits and three walks over 2 2/3 innings with and one strikeout.

It’s a tough place these days for Wentz, whose 2-11 record has unfolded over just 22 appearances. If he doesn’t get another win, he’d be the first Tigers starter since Jordan Zimmermann -- 1-13 in 2019 -- with double-digit losses and less than three wins in a season. 

It’s the last place many would have expected Wentz to be in after his strong finish to last season.

“You remember a calendar year ago, when he was incredible in September,” manager A.J. Hinch said, referring to Wentz’s 1.73 ERA and .161 batting average allowed over his final five starts. “He’s lost a little bit of that mojo and I think he’s having a hard time recapturing that confidence during this grind. 

“He keeps going out there. He’s going to give us his best. He’s pretty frustrated. You can see it on his face. He’s disappointed.”

The Tigers still believe that better form is in there, which is why they keep sending Wentz out there. They’ve tried picking and choosing matchups, sometimes using an opener in front of him, and hoped to build on glimpses such as his five scoreless innings in Cleveland on Aug. 18.

Even Tuesday, Wentz had a glimpse, such as a sharp changeup in his first inning, setting up Hunter Renfroe to whiff on a fastball for his only strikeout. But he hasn’t put together back-to-back solid outings at any point this season.

“I don’t think it’s confidence. I think it’s just execution,” Wentz said. “You have to throw quality and I’m not really doing that. So [it’s] not really confidence as much as making pitches.”

A look at the metrics show some difference there. Wentz’s fastball has gained a mile per hour from last year, up to 93.5 mph on average, with a similar movement profile and a slightly higher swing-and-miss rate. But after opponents hit just .209 off his fastball last year, they’re hitting .362 with 11 home runs and a 58.3 percent hard-hit rate off it this season according to Statcast. His cutter has also been less effective, with opponents batting .269 against it with a lower whiff rate than last year (29 percent, down from 38.9 percent).

The one pitch that has been better in Wentz’s arsenal this year is his changeup, with just a .159 batting average. But it's a small consolation if he can’t pair it with an effective fastball.

“I think that it has to do with some shape stuff with the fastball,” Wentz said. “But I think also if the shape’s not going to be there, you have to get it on the edges, and I haven’t really done that either. There’s a couple details with the fastball that’s making it easier to hit.”

He’ll get a chance to keep working on it. With Matt Manning out for the season, Spencer Turnbull not pitching at Triple-A Toledo, Casey Mize slowed in his rehab process and Alex Faedo in the bullpen, Wentz still has a place in a five-man rotation. The Tigers want him to get something to build on for next year.

“He’s going to fight through this and be better for it,” Hinch said. “But it’s hard to watch him go through the agony of the struggles, because he’s such a good guy and also somebody that works his tail off. So you want to see him get some results when he’s given the opportunity.”