CLEVELAND -- Who would have thought two teams with similar styles and organizational priorities and roster efficiencies would turn out to be so evenly matched on the field?
Well, actually, not the oddsmakers. They had the No. 1-seeded Rays as a pretty heavy favorite over the No. 2-seeded Guardians going into the American League Championship Series, in part because Cleveland had a more exhausting Division Series path to get here.
Four games in, however, this has been a compelling matchup of matching strengths. And at two wins apiece after the Rays seized a 7-3 win in Game 4, it’s basically a brand-new series -- a best-of-three -- going into Game 5 on Sunday at Progressive Field.
“I anticipate it going down to the wire,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “That's the way these two teams are.”
Here’s a look at where things stand in the ALCS and the factors that will decide it going forward.
The Rays are off the mat … and in control?
It is our professional opinion that being tied 2-2 is way, way better than being down 3-1. It’s science.
And while momentum is not really as much of a thing in these playoff series as us sports yakkers would like it to be, the Rays are now really well-situated with their underrated ace Drew Rasmussen getting an extra day of rest from Friday’s postponement before starting Game 5 and then Freddy Peralta (who made a rare relief turn in Game 4 on his between-starts throw day) lined up for Monday’s Game 6 back home.
The scattered postseason schedule might have worked against the Rays in the early portion of this series. They had five days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the ALDS against the Yankees, then four days off after sweeping the Yanks. The bats looked disjointed for much of this ALCS before breaking through in Game 4. They had five extra-base hits combined in the series’ first three games before getting a homer and double from Yandy Díaz and a double from Junior Caminero on Saturday. That’s a huge shot of life from their big dogs, and now the Rays might be the rare postseason team to actually love the idea of four games in four days.
“I think it’s going to be a good thing for us,” said Jonathan Aranda, “because we’re going to see pitchers consecutively.”
The Guardians’ dual aces must take it to the limit
After Game 4, Vogt announced that Rookie of the Year candidate Parker Messick will start Game 5 -- something that was not in store had Friday’s game been played. The postponement allowed the Guardians to move Messick up from his scheduled Game 6 turn. And Gavin Williams would have four days’ rest before a potential Game 7.
But Messick and Williams, two young arms in uncharted innings territory, are showing some potential signs of exhaustion.
Messick’s 198 combined innings between the regular season and postseason are the sixth most by a rookie in the last 20 years. And in his Game 2 start at Tropicana Field, he allowed 10 baserunners in five innings, and his six whiffs generated were his fourth fewest in a start this year.
“Honestly, my body feels great,” Messick said. “No complaints of where I'm at. I know I'm kind of soaring well over my career high. But I feel great.”
Williams has been utterly dominant for much of this postseason. But the Guardians pulled him after just 70 pitches in Game 3 as his four-seam velocity dropped from 99.6 mph in the fourth inning to 95.2 in the fifth. Just something to monitor going forward.
The defense rests
Both of these low-payroll clubs are oriented around the idea that they can’t afford to give away extra outs. They both rated above-average offensively this season.
But the Guardians have shown rare defensive missteps in their two losses. In the fourth inning of Game 2, José Ramírez left third base uncovered on an infield chopper and got eaten up by a grounder that leaped at the lip of the Trop turf for an error that led to three unearned runs in a 3-1 loss. In Game 4, an Aranda single rolled under right fielder Chase DeLauter’s glove as two huge runs motored home and Aranda advanced all the way to third before himself scoring on a sacrifice fly.
The Guardians have to clean it up if they’re going to advance. The Rays, meanwhile, have looked their characteristically sharp selves defensively, including turning two double plays and recording an out on a Victor Mesa Jr. outfield assist in Game 4.
“Everything is magnified in the postseason -- the big hits, the big decisions, the big plays that go your way or against you,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “When you’ve got two teams that are really talented, like we feel both of us are, one play can swing a lot. We want to continue to put pressure on the defense and trust that our defense is going to continue to make plays.”
This will be a grind (relatively speaking)
It’s funny how much we harp on (the potential for) four games in four days, given that the regular season asks so much of teams. But Friday’s postponement is bound to impact this series in meaningful ways. There is always the risk of overexposure for bullpen arms when locking in against a single club for an extended stretch, and now the off-days are over.
While Game 4 was a rare postseason game in which the Guardians did not use Cade Smith, he did warm up in the bullpen at one point, and he and Hunter Gaddis are tied with the Brewers’ Abner Uribe for most appearances by a pitcher in this postseason (seven apiece). The Guardians liked the matchup of young hard-thrower Daniel Espino against the top of the Rays’ order, but the strategy didn’t work in Game 4, which was his third appearance in this ALCS.
Meanwhile, Saturday’s Game 4 played out beautifully for the Rays in getting seven innings combined out of starter Nick Martinez and would-be starters Peralta and Ian Seymour before turning it over to Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser and closer Bryan Baker for the last six outs. Length from starters from both squads will be pivotal in the home stretch, because you can only go to the well with the same reliever cast so many times.
This is a fun series … especially for the Brewers
Milwaukee will face the same scrutiny as previous LCS sweepers in terms of the extremely long layoff and what it’ll mean for their timing and rust. History shows that, in the best-of-seven LCS era (1985-present), teams that sweep have gone on to win it all four times (including last year’s Dodgers) and lose the World Series seven times.
But any team would sign up for the Brewers’ schedule over what it’s going to take the ALCS winner to advance, and the rest is welcomed for a Milwaukee relief corps that has taken on 40 2/3 innings of work in October.
If this ALCS goes to a Game 7, that would be consecutive series for the Guardians going the distance, asking a lot of their arms (including a bullpen whose 47 innings of work so far in this postseason are the most of any team). It’s not as stark for the Rays' relievers, who have only worked 24 1/3 innings so far.
Given how evenly matched these two teams look, though, it should surprise no one if this goes to a Game 7, and both the Guards and Rays have to get goofy (starters relieving, relievers starting, whatever it takes) to go the distance. Meanwhile, the Brewers, who actually hit more homers in four games against the Dodgers (seven) than the Rays and Guardians have combined to hit in their four games (six), are sitting pretty.