This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- On Friday, Walker Buehler shoved against his former club. Just as his former manager thought he might. Buehler pitched 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers -- and would’ve gone further if the game situation didn’t dictate a call to the bullpen. It was Buehler’s final start of June, a month he’ll finish with a remarkable 1.71 ERA.
Buehler’s renaissance is an incredible story for the Padres. But things would feel a whole lot better if the team wasn’t relying on him so heavily in the first place. Buehler was expected to anchor the No. 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. Instead, Buehler -- a Minor League signing in February -- is now the Padres’ second most reliable starter. Maybe their most reliable. That feels like shaky ground.
Fast forward to Saturday. Randy Vásquez has had the opposite experience. He started the year strong. But across his past seven outings, his ERA sits at 7.34. Vásquez (working behind opener Kyle Hart, who went two innings) completely unraveled in the sixth, as he allowed seven runs (four earned) in the frame.
Like with Buehler, Vásquez’s regression would feel different if the state of the rotation were different. But Vásquez is basically the No. 2 or 3 starter right now, and he hasn’t been nearly good enough.
That’s true of the whole rotation. The Padres have, somehow, made it work. They’re in the Wild Card mix, even with a wildly underperforming offense.
“We’ve definitely underachieved in all aspects -- probably besides the bullpen,” said Michael King, who also struggled in his start on Sunday. “So you look up at the record, and you’re, I guess, satisfied, with how poorly we would all say we’ve been playing.”
How sustainable is that? The next month will be a defining one …
The Padres need to find a way to tread water
After a homestand against the Braves and Dodgers, things don’t get any easier. The Padres’ next 11 games are crucially important. Starting tonight, they play three against the Cubs, four against the Dodgers and four against the Diamondbacks.
The Cubs and Diamondbacks are direct rivals in the Wild Card race. Those series are sandwiched around a trip to Dodger Stadium -- always an emotional drain. Not to mention, there are no off-days within that stretch (and three more against the reigning AL champion Blue Jays without an off-day before the break).
How on earth are the Padres going to cover those starts? They’ll need a whole lot more than what they’ve been getting. Otherwise, the season threatens come off the rails -- much in the same way the 2021 season did, when San Diego simply ran out of starting pitching. As such, the burden on that bullpen was outsized. It fell apart.
Manager Craig Stammen was a part of that bullpen.
“It’s my biggest worry, because I lived it,” Stammen said. “I know what that was like, and I know how we were feeling at the end of the season. … My job as a manager is to try to protect the bullpen in that way, so they are a strength for the entire season, not just in May and June.”
But starters Lucas Giolito, Matt Waldron and Germán Márquez are on the IL. Even if they were healthy, they weren’t giving the Padres much to begin with. Neither are Vásquez and Griffin Canning.
JP Sears, though … He turned in his best start as a Padre after his callup last week. The Padres probably shouldn’t rely on Sears to save their rotation. But here’s the thing: They don’t need Sears to start Game 3 of the postseason. They just need a few quality starts from him -- and guys like him -- to help get them there.
The Musgrove/Pivetta equation
Looming over all of this is the status of the guys who would, theoretically, start Games 2 and 3 in a postseason series. There have been encouraging signs with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta lately. Both have been long tossing, as they rehab separate elbow-related injuries. Pivetta even threw a light bullpen on Saturday.
Stammen called it “a sight for sore eyes,” then preached caution, adding: “They’ve got a long way to go.”
How long? Long enough where the Padres aren’t using timelines. Some days are good. Some days aren’t so good. Hopefully there are more good days than bad, and they’ll be back soon enough. But the team has regularly said there’s no sense in forecasting.
I’ll forecast anyway: Pivetta and Musgrove probably won’t impact the Padres until August at the earliest, with Musgrove likely behind Pivetta. That’s a long way away -- a long stretch where the current group of Padres’ starters -- many of whom are either struggling or on the IL with milder injuries -- need to keep them afloat.
Deadline shopping
Of course, even if Musgrove and Pivetta return, the Padres have no idea what to expect. Elbow injuries are tricky. It’d be foolish to assume they’ll get the 2025 version of Pivetta and the pre-surgery version of Musgrove.
Which brings us to the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Despite all the struggles on offense, and despite the clear desire of general manager A.J. Preller to build a super-bullpen, the rotation should be top priority.
2026 Trade Deadline: Aug. 3, 6 p.m. ET
• Latest trade rumors, news and updates
Then again, rotation help is expensive. There are aces out there -- but I doubt the Padres would pay that price. (Yes, even with Preller at the helm.) It’s more likely they’ll be shopping for a mid-rotation arm -- perhaps someone who could start a Game 3 or 4 of a playoff series. (And, yes, maybe another reliever to help ease the burden on the current bullpen.)
Best case scenario: The Padres add a quality starter. Pivetta and Musgrove return at some point. King looks more like the ace he was in his first start against the Dodgers last month. Then, either Buehler continues his strong form or Vásquez regains his.
To be clear: That’s a very rosy outlook. There’s almost no chance that ALL of those things happen. But it’s also worth remembering: As shaky as things seem right now, the Padres might have a passable rotation when October approaches. It might even be a strength.
But they’ll have to get there first.