Braves' success isn't all about heat

October 12th, 2020

As the Rays and Yankees waged their epic battle in Game 5 of the American League Division Series on Friday night, we were reminded of how much more frequently we now see pitchers who consistently throw in the upper 90s.

But as the Braves have gone through the first two rounds of this year’s postseason in historic fashion, they have proven a highly successful pitching staff can still be constructed without an abundance of flamethrowers.

“We should be able to get guys out with 85 [mph], just as much as we can with 95 and if you have 105 that’s a benefit, too,” Braves catching coach Sal Fasano said. “But what do you do when you face a team like ours that hits fastballs? You can have guys that throw 97 or 98 miles an hour. But [Marcell] Ozuna is not afraid of that. Travis [d’Arnaud] is not afraid of it. Freddie [Freeman] is not afraid of it. [Ronald] Acuña [Jr.] is not afraid of it.”

There are some similarities between the Braves and Dodgers, who will begin battling in the National League Championship Series on Monday night in Arlington. Both have a strong relief corps and an abundance of power hitters capable of handling high velocity.

Per Baseball Savant, against pitches clocked at 95 mph or higher, the Dodgers led the NL with a .463 slugging percentage and the Braves ranked second at .453.

But from a pitching perspective, these two teams have presented a different look. Dating back to the start of the regular season, 42.1. percent (MLB’s second-highest rate) of the fastballs thrown by a Dodgers pitcher have been clocked at 95 mph or higher. The Braves have reached this velocity with just 13.8 percent (MLB’s fourth-lowest rate) of the fastballs they have thrown.

Yet, as the Braves have produced a shutout in four of their first five postseason games, they have provided the reminder that stuff and consistent command can still trump velocity.

“We knew we had a good bullpen, but it’s not just good, it’s great,” Freeman said. “To give up five runs in the first five games -- everyone that comes out of that gate, you feel like they can shut down an inning. We’ve flipped the script. Everyone was talking about offense and now they’re talking about pitching. That’s great because they deserve it.”

While proving perfect through their first five playoff games, the Braves have produced a 0.92 ERA. Their pitching staff has held the opponent scoreless in 46 of the 49 innings. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright have introduced themselves to the postseason scene in impressive manner by combining to start three of the four shutouts.

But though their emergence has been significant, the strength of this pitching staff remains a bullpen that has allowed just one run over 21 innings this postseason. They have done this with a relief corps that has registered 96 mph or higher with just 9.1 percent (34 of 374) of the fastballs thrown.

The only NL bullpen to produce a lower percentage during this year’s playoffs was the Marlins' (7.2 percent). As the Dodgers' relievers have allowed five runs through 22 innings this postseason, they have reached this velocity with 14.4 percent (63 of 437) of their fastballs.

“I want to know our players better than I want to know their hitters,” Fasano said. “If we can always work to our strengths, then we’re always in command. We’re always trying to use whatever gift they have to the best of their ability. I don’t care if it’s [Josh] Tomlin’s 85 mph cutter or [A.J.] Minter’s 95 mph fastball or Tyler Matzek throwing 100 the other day. Who knew that he had that in him?”

Postseason adrenaline can provide a beneficial boost to somebody like Matzek, who took the mound in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Reds and shocked everyone when he struck out Mike Moustakas with a 97.8 mph heater to end the 11th inning with the bases loaded. He then notched the first of three consecutive strikeouts in the 12th by sending a 98.4 mph heater past Kyle Farmer.

Matzek hit 96 mph or higher with just 9.0 percent (27 of 301) of the four-seam fastballs he threw during the regular season. That rate has jumped to 65.7 (23 of 35) during the playoffs.

Still, even with Matzek becoming more of a flamethrower over the past couple of weeks, the Braves have proven you don’t have to rely on velocity. Just 43 of the 236 four-seamers they have thrown during the playoffs have registered 96 mph or higher. Matzek (23) and A.J. Minter (11) have accounted for 34 of those 43 pitches. Wright (4), Max Fried (3) and Anderson (2) have accounted for the other nine.

Minter ranked first among Braves pitchers during the regular season with a 95.5 mph average for four-seam fastballs. Among all big league pitchers who threw at least 150 four-seamers, that average ranked 49th.

Still, as veterans Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Will Smith consistently sat between 92-94 mph this year, they anchored the Braves’ rock-solid bullpen by continuing to prove effective high velocity is a benefit, not a necessity.

“The game is going to adapt to how you play, so you have to continue to learn and adapt,” Greene said. “I think we all understand that. I also think we’re all super competitors. We might not have the biggest gun in the fight. But we’re going to go down swinging.”