Inbox: Will Braves prioritize rotation for 2020?

Beat reporter Mark Bowman answers fans' questions

October 22nd, 2019

Seeing the starting rotations of the teams in this year's World Series, how much pressure will the Braves be under to land an ace this winter?
-- @zomglazerz

While re-signing Josh Donaldson might be at the top of the wish list, acquiring another front-line starter to pair with Mike Soroka should be at the top of the need list. This isn’t a one-or-the-other option. The Braves could re-sign Donaldson and acquire a top starter. But the latter qualifies more as a need because it would enhance the potential value of any move made this winter.

The Braves’ rotation currently consists of Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz and possibly Julio Teheran ($12 million option). Maybe Soroka takes another step toward cementing himself as a No. 1 starter. Maybe Fried and Foltynewicz progress toward establishing themselves as a No. 2. And maybe Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright or possibly Sean Newcomb end up giving you valuable innings as a starter next year.

Or maybe it’s best to improve your potential certainty by acquiring a proven veteran capable of creating the stability that has benefited the Astros and Nationals this month. This is not to say the Braves will be suitors for Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg on the free agent market. They would be more comfortable pursuing a shorter-term fit like they could have gained last winter by signing Charlie Morton or trading for Sonny Gray.

The worst mistake is to spend just to spend. But there are far too many maybes within the projected to rotation to overlook the fact that there is a need for certainty. Yeah, the goal is to land an ace, which is something the Astros didn’t know they were necessarily getting in Cole or Morton within the past few years. But the need is to enhance reliability, which could be realized by signing Madison Bumgarner or Zack Wheeler.

Do you see us keeping Shane Greene? How can we improve our bullpen moving forward?
-- @Paul_Jones22

In an earlier article, I wrote that the Braves would have to question whether they were willing to pay $20 million to their top two relievers -- Mark Melancon ($14M salary) and Greene (arbitration eligible). While we are past the point where we should question giving an average of $10 million to two veteran relievers, you have to go back to whether it’s wise to spend just to spend.

Greene combined to produce a 2.30 ERA and a 3.79 Fielding Independent Pitching mark with the Tigers and Braves this year. Before the July 31 trade, he had a 1.18 ERA and 3.69 FIP. So, you could say the potential regression was realized as he produced a 4.01 ERA and 3.94 FIP with Atlanta.

Greene’s stats were obviously damaged during those first two weeks he spent with the Braves. Over his final 20 appearances (19 1/3 innings), he had a 1.86 ERA and 3.01 FIP.

You’re certainly not bringing him back with the expectation he’ll produce a sub-2.00 ERA like he did for all but two weeks of last season. But even with some regression, he could provide greater value than other free agent relievers, including those who will be seeking something greater than a one-year, $6 million deal.

Do the Braves have a plan B if Josh Donaldson signs elsewhere?
-- @stevenwiener

If Donaldson does not re-sign, there will be a need to gain a power hitter. If attempting to fill that need specifically at third base, the free agent market offers Anthony Rendon and Mike Moustakas. Rumors will continue to place Kris Bryant on the trade market, but I’m thinking he and Javy Báez will remain with the Cubs.

After signing Donaldson last winter, general manager Alex Anthopoulos repeatedly said he wasn’t specifically looking for a third baseman. He just needed to find the best power option available. Along those lines, if this winter’s best option were to be an outfielder, Johan Camargo would likely open 2020 as Atlanta’s third baseman. Austin Riley would be an option. But given the way his 2019 concluded, I think he’s most likely to start the season with Triple-A Gwinnett.

If the Braves end up being in the market for a power-hitting outfielder, they’d likely go the trade route. Marcell Ozuna creates some intrigue as a potential free agent acquisition. But I don’t see the Braves taking a chance on Nicholas Castellanos’ defense or anything beyond a one-year deal with Yasiel Puig.

Will Cristian Pache and Drew Waters be called up next season?
-- @LaswonThomas12

Now that we’ve addressed some of the needs and wants, we have to remember to make a significant trade, the Braves may have to part with either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters. It might be more comfortable to dip into the pool of starting pitching prospects. But if there is an opportunity to gain a high-value, multi-year asset, one of the two young outfielders might have to be included in the deal.

With that being said, neither of these highly-regarded prospects is Major League ready. Pache hit .274 with one homer and a .747 OPS over 104 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett. Waters hit .271 with two homers and a .710 OPS in his 119 plate appearances with the Stripers.

Both will turn 21 within the next couple months and at some point next summer both could be deemed ready to make the leap to the big leagues. But given neither has spent much more than a month at the Triple-A level, the Braves won’t be making any assumptions as they address their offseason needs.