The Winter Meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Fla., and prospects are certain to be on the shopping list for some clubs.
Which team will get the best holiday-season deal? Who has the prospect capital to make that kind of deal happen?
MLB Pipeline’s insiders tackled that question while previewing the upcoming meetings on this week’s Pipeline Podcast, as Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo identified 10 teams with the prospects to swing big deals in Orlando. Callis and Mayo then assigned each club a "Trade Probability Grade," a hypothetical metric meant to mimic the 20-80 grading system used by scouts to evaluate the tools of baseball's best prospects, with an eye toward ranking the clubs best situated to swing a deal.
Mariners
Trade Probability Grade: 65 (Mayo)
They currently have eight players on our Top 100 Prospects list. They have a pool of talented players at the top of the system, and some middle infield depth that they can trade from if they wanted to. And they do not hesitate to make trades. Jerry Dipoto traded away six of their Top 30 prospects at the deadline but kept their top, top guys. They have pitching depth in Kade Anderson (No. 2/MLB No. 23) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 8/MLB No. 90), and Cijntje is almost big-league ready, which could intrigue some rebuilding teams. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo (No. 6/MLB No. 63) or a guy like Harry Ford (No. 4/MLB No. 42) could be available, because he's blocked behind the plate in Seattle.
Mets
Trade Probability Grade: 65 (Callis)
I don't think the Tigers are going to trade Tarik Skubal this offseason. But I do feel like if they traded him, the team that would be first in line would be the Mets. I think they are the most desperate, coming off their season, they have the resources to pay Skubal whatever they wanted, and they have prospects to trade. I don't think they'll trade Nolan McLean (No. 1/MLB No. 11). I do wonder if they would part with Jonah Tong (No. 4/MLB No. 46), who was the best pitcher in the Minors last year but not as effective in the Majors at age 22? Brandon Sproat (No. 5)? Carson Benge (No. 2/MLB No. 21) might be a tough chip. But they also have Jett Williams (No. 3/MLB No. 30). They could keep one and trade one. They have Jacob Reimer (No. 6), who is one of the top third base prospects in baseball. This is a team that is very much in it to win it, they have assets, and they are highly motivated to make a trade.
Dodgers
Trade Probability Grade: 60 (Callis)
They had our No. 1 farm system at midseason, and they have had so much on-field success lately, they don't have places to play all their prospects who are knocking on the door. Alex Freeland (No. 4/MLB No. 45) is close to big-league ready. They have a ton of outfield prospects: Josue De Paula (No. 1/MLB No. 13) and Zyhir Hope (No. 2/MLB No. 20) are two of the best in baseball. Eduardo Quintero (No. 3/MLB No. 34) and Mike Sirota (No. 5/MLB No. 64) are also Top 100 prospects. James Tibbs III (No. 8) was a first-round pick, and Ching-Hsien Ko (No. 10) is about to open some eyes, and they have a bunch of young shortstops behind Freeland. They have the financial wherewithal and the prospect wherewithal to probably make any trade they want.
Reds
Trade Probability Grade: 60 (Mayo)
They are not afraid to deal prospects or bring in prospects. They have six Top 100 guys. Sal Stewart (No. 1/MLB No. 31) made it to the big leagues. Chase Burns just graduated. The Reds are close. The only reason I would hedge my bet here is that they might go with the big splash in the free agent market. What if they can lure Ohio native Kyle Schwarber to Cincinnati? If Schwarber signs somewhere else, maybe they pivot to the trade market.
Brewers
Trade Probability Grade: 55 (Mayo)
They're really exciting, especially up the middle, with their Top 100 guys. They have Jesús Made (No. 1/MLB No. 4) and Luis Peña (No. 2/MLB No. 18) in the Top 20 and another shortstop, Cooper Pratt (No. 3/MLB No. 56). They aren't going to trade Made. But maybe Pratt? That would be an interesting one. They also have some depth with guys who had breakouts, like Josh Adamczewski (No. 13) in the Fall League. The Brewers are not a team that likes to blow up their farm system, but they can trade from that depth a little bit.
Blue Jays
Trade Probability Grade: 55 (Callis)
They got as close as you can get to a World Series without winning it, and I think that makes them extra motivated to make a trade. I don't think they part with Trey Yesavage (No. 1/MLB No. 26) or JoJo Parker (No. 2/MLB No. 43) by any means. But I can see pretty much anybody else in the organization being available in a trade that makes the Blue Jays better in 2026. It's not the deepest system in the world, but there are interesting guys up and down the system.
Tigers
Trade Probability Grade: 50 (Mayo)
They were No. 1 on our preseason farm system list and slid back a little bit by midseason. It's a deep system. There is a lot of interesting, close-to-big-league-ready offensive talent. Kevin McGonigle (No. 1/MLB No. 2) and Max Clark (No. 2/MLB No. 8) are going nowhere. Could Josue Briceño (No. 3/MLB No. 33) be included in a larger deal? Everyone is wondering if the Tigers are going to trade Tarik Skubal and what they would get in return. But they have guys like Briceño and Max Anderson (No. 9) who are close to helping out at the big league level.
Red Sox
Trade Probability Grade: 50 (Callis)
Boston promoted a lot of talent to the big leagues last year in Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. The system still has some depth in it. They still have plenty of ammunition to trade. They kind of have an infield logjam, so perhaps Franklin Arias (No. 1/MLB No. 24), their best prospect, can be had in the right deal. They have more outfielders than they know what to do with, so maybe Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 3/MLB No. 85) can be had in the right deal. They aren't trading Payton Tolle (No. 2/MLB No. 28), who might be the best left-hander in the Minors. But Connelly Early (No. 5) is a borderline Top 100 prospect, another lefty who we saw in the big leagues. They used their top picks last year on pitching. I do think the Red Sox will make a trade, but it sounds like they're much more likely to make a deal involving Triston Casas, Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, to alleviate the logjams they have at the big league level.
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Phillies
Trade Probability Grade: 50 (Mayo)
I'd be surprised if they traded any of their top three prospects, Andrew Painter (No. 1/MLB No. 16), Aidan Miller (No. 2/MLB No. 32) or Justin Crawford (No. 3/MLB No. 54). After Gage Wood (No. 4), their 2025 first-round pick -- anybody after that, I think is fair game. Aroon Escobar (No. 5) and Dante Nori (No. 6) are the types of guys who could be on the block, packaged together to bring someone in.
Guardians
Trade Probability Grade: 45 (Callis)
They were fifth in our midseason farm system rankings and have plenty of hitting depth. They aren't trading Travis Bazzana (No. 1/MLB No. 17) who they took No. 1 overall in 2024, and I don't think they'll trade Chase DeLauter (No. 2/MLB No. 58) after he finally made his MLB debut in the postseason. But they have a ton of prospect depth: Angel Genao (No. 3/MLB No. 59), Cooper Ingle (No. 4), Jaison Chourio (No. 5). They got two guys in this year's Draft in Jace LaViolette (No. 7) and Dean Curley (No. 10) who looked like higher picks at one point. They don't have as many pitchers to deal. I think they have the depth to make deals. Trading for veterans isn't quite their style, but they need more power in their lineup, so maybe they should go out and make a trade.