The World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, at 10 p.m. ET in a game between Australia and Chinese Taipei. It will kick off a fortnight of absolute madness, with the best baseball players on the planet highly motivated by patriotism, pride and plain old competitiveness squaring off in a high-stakes tournament setting.
This Classic will offer extreme intensity -- at a time of year when we’re mostly used to watching Minor Leaguers wearing jersey numbers like 97 take laps through the outfield in the seventh inning of games in Dunedin, Fla. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that, either.) It’s the World Baseball Classic. It is more fun, and more quickly.
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But who’s going to win? Three teams have won the WBC in the past: Japan (three times), the United States and the Dominican Republic. Two MLB.com staffers, Will Leitch and resident WBC expert Michael Clair, got together and drafted each of this year’s 20 teams, by likelihood of them winning the title. We let Will go first because Michael is smarter than he is and Will needs every advantage he can get.
1) Leitch: United States
The United States was loaded with stars three years ago, as you would expect, but I think we’ve forgotten just how wobbly that pitching staff was. Four pitchers made starts for Team USA that year: Merrill Kelly, Nick Martinez, Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright. Two of those pitchers have retired, and the other two, well, will not be mistaken for Paul Skenes.
This time around, the actual Paul Skenes is on the roster – and he might not even be this team’s ace. That’s because Tarik Skubal also is, which means Team USA now has the two best pitchers on Earth to go along with a lineup that features, uh, Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Will Smith and Gunnar Henderson. The hitting is probably better than it was three years ago. The pitching is a LOT LOT LOT LOT LOT better. They’re the obvious first pick, no?
2) Clair: Japan
The team may be a little weaker on paper than when it won it all in 2023, but until someone takes down the three-time World Baseball Classic champs and reigning Olympic gold medalists, they’re the team to beat. Japan’s modern dominance is like Cuba’s international dominance pre-2006.
Even with Shohei Ohtani planning on only hitting, a pairing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto with 2025 Sawamura Award winner Hiromi Itoh makes the Samurai rotation as threatening as ever. The lineup now has two new big leaguers, with Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto joining Seiya Suzuki, who missed out due to an injury last time. Add in NPB Central League MVP Award winner Teruaki Sato, and there are few places for opposing pitchers to hide.
3) Leitch: Dominican Republic
It sure looked for most of the offseason that Albert Pujols -- Albert Pujols! -- was going to get one of the open MLB managerial jobs. It didn’t turn out that way for him -- not yet at least -- but there would be few better ways to polish up that resume than leading the DR to a WBC title. (It’s also strange to think that Pujols would ever even have to put together a resume, let alone polish one up.)
The 2023 WBC was a huge disappointment for the Dominicans, as they didn’t even make it out of the group stage. This time, though, the big names have come out to play, from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Manny Machado to Ketel Marte to Junior Caminero to an all-timer of an outfield of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Julio Rodríguez. (Also, you think anyone can talk Albert into taking a couple swings himself?) This is a lineup that can absolutely bludgeon you, and the DR seemingly has an easier path out of the group stage than in 2023.
4) Clair: Venezuela
A Trea Turner grand slam for Team USA in 2023 was the only thing keeping Venezuela from its first trip to the semifinals since 2009, and the team looks even stronger this time around. Ronald Acuña Jr., Jackson Chourio and Salvador Perez form about as fearsome a middle of the order as you’ll find in the tourney, but it’s the arms like Ranger Suárez and closer Daniel Palencia who have Venezuela looking as dangerous as they ever have.
The loss of Pablo López, who appears set for Tommy John surgery, is a big hit to the rotation, but this team still has plenty of talent.
5) Leitch: Puerto Rico
Hey, look, I picked another team that has a Cardinals legend as manager -- who woulda thunk that? It’s a bummer that Yadier Molina’s squad is missing some of its biggest stars, but they do have Nolan Arenado (who played for Team USA in the past), Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo and Willi Castro, among others, and they’re in a somewhat forgiving pool. They also have a solid WBC history, and, you know, with Bad Bunny and everything, the whole island is having a bit of a moment. There’s a ton of pride here, particularly with Molina leading the charge. I bet they’re a lot tougher to beat than everyone thinks.
6) Clair: Mexico
A Munetaka Murakami walk-off double kept Mexico from a spot in the 2023 finals. Since then, baseball’s popularity has skyrocketed in the country, and the team -- led by former national team star and current GM Rodrigo Lopez, along with manager Benji Gil -- is fresh off a Caribbean Series championship. This Mexico squad may be even stronger than last time. Randy Arozarena always puts on a show, and now there’s a trio of 2025 MLB All-Stars in Jonathan Aranda, Andrés Muñoz, and Alejandro Kirk, who may be the best catcher not named Big Dumper in the Major Leagues.
Mexico is in a difficult pool, having to face the USA and WBC rival Italy -- who have beaten them with two ninth-inning comeback victories in 2013 and ‘17 -- but if Mexico advances to the quarters they have a good chance.
7) Leitch: Canada
Canada has never made it past the group stage before, but if they’re ever going to, this is the year. Puerto Rico is down, and the team with the most big leaguers in that group is actually Canada. There’s no Freddie Freeman this time (and for that matter, no Joey Votto), but they’ve got the Naylor brothers, they’ve got Tyler O’Neill flexing his muscles (he’ll probably hit three homers in the opener, no?) and they’ve got hot prospect Owen Caissie showing off his stuff. This team is looking dangerous.
8) Clair: Chinese Taipei
Ah, I thought I might be able to wait one pick longer to take Canada, which has the talent and depth to go really far in this tourney. That’s fine, I’m still very excited to take Chinese Taipei. The team may be considered underdogs, but with captain Chieh-Hsien Chen leading the way, they knocked off Korea and defeated Japan to win the 2024 Premier12 -- the biggest victory in the team’s history. While those opposing rosters weren’t as strong as the ones they’ll see at the World Baseball Classic, Chinese Taipei has added reinforcements, too, including Cubs prospect Jonathon Long and Guardians outfielder Stuart Fairchild to the roster.
There’s plenty of talent on the pitching side, with D-backs prospect Yu-Min Lin and SoftBank Hawks signee Jo-Hsi Hsu along with prospects Wei-En Lin and Po-Yu Chen. I expect Chinese Taipei to finish second in the Tokyo pool and head to Miami, where anything is possible.
9) Leitch: Korea
I will confess that this is a bit of a nostalgia pick. I fondly remember obsessively watching KBO games early in the pandemic, and I remember watching the Korean team come this close to winning the WBC in 2009 before losing to Japan. The team has fallen off a bit since then, as the rest of the world has risen, but there are still a lot of high-quality players here. Along with some KBO stars, there are MLB players with Korean heritage, including Tigers outfielder Jahmai Jones, Mariners pitcher Dane Dunning, Cardinals pitcher Riley O'Brien (if he gets healthy), and Astros infielder Shay Whitcomb. Michael, you have Chinese Taipei getting out of the Tokyo Pool, but I’ll stick with Korea.
10) Clair: Italy
Coming off a quarterfinals run in the 2023 tournament, Italy’s pitching staff looks a lot stronger this time around, with Phillies starter Aaron Nola joining Samuel Aldegheri -- the first Italian born-and-developed pitcher in MLB history -- and Alessandro Ercolani, who hails from the tiny nation of San Marino.
The offense looks explosive, too, with Vinnie Pasquantino leading the charge and youngsters Kyle Teel and Jac Caglianone looking to break out on the international circuit. Homegrown star Giaconino Lasaracina is coming off a torrid European Baseball Championship in the fall (.481/.516/1.185, 6 HRs) while veteran catcher and Gorizia, Italy native Alberto Mineo will back up behind the dish. If Italy can escape the first round, they could surprise.
11) Leitch: Colombia
I am feeling a little bad not picking Pasquantino’s team. Instead, I’ll go with the team that pulled off the wild upset of Mexico to kick off the last WBC and, it sure looks to me, seems to have a nice little path to making it out of pool play for the first time. Colombia actually had to fight last spring in order to qualify for this tournament, but it was no problem: They beat Brazil, China and Germany by a combined score of 23-1. This team has all sorts of veterans, led by pitchers Jose Quintana and Julio Teheran. Could they sneak out of Pool A? I think they could!
12) Clair: Netherlands
The kings of European baseball are back on top after winning the 2025 European Baseball championship and bring a veteran roster that is no stranger to the tournament. Didi Gregorius is back after winning the MVP Award at the 2025 Euros, as is Shairon Martis (who threw a no-hitter in the 2006 tourney) and Kevin Kelly (who threw 8 1/3 no-hit innings with 16 strikeouts against the reigning Euros champion, Spain.)
The lineup is stacked with Ozzie Albies, Xander Bogaerts and Ceddanne Rafaela -- plus manager Andruw Jones’ son, Druw, is on the squad -- but how well the thin pitching staff performs could determine if the Kingdom reaches the quarterfinals.
13) Leitch: Panama
I can’t believe it has taken us this long to talk about Pool A at the last WBC, when there was a five-way tie, with everybody at 2-2. That was crazy! Well, Panama was one of those teams, and while it didn’t advance, a better outcome this time could be on the table.
This might the most MLB-experienced roster Panama has put together, and you sure could do a lot worse than Logan Allen atop your rotation in a big Game 1 against Cuba. It’s unfortunate that Iván Herrera wasn’t able to play, but with Miguel Amaya, José Caballero and Edmundo Sosa among those leading the lineup, this team absolutely could sneak out of Pool A.
14) Clair: Great Britain
Great Britain won one game in the 2023 tournament -- the first in the country’s history. They bring a much deeper roster this time, with co-captain Harry Ford now three years older, with a brief Major League debut on his resume. The addition of 30-30 man Jazz Chisholm Jr., to form an all-Bahamas double-play combo with Lucius Fox, is a huge boon to the lineup, while the Beck brothers (Brendan and Tristan) bring more MLB experience to the rotation. It’s still a longshot for GB to advance, but with plenty of pro experience on both sides of the ball, you could see them going on a similar run as Israel did in 2017.
15) Leitch: Cuba
Obviously, a lot of things have changed with Cuba, on and off the field, since they first showed up in the WBC in 2006 as a team of mystery and intrigue, ultimately making it all the way to the championship game. For a variety of reasons, there is only one active MLB player on this edition of Team Cuba (Yoán Moncada), though it will be fun to see a 44-year-old Alexei Ramirez on the team, nearly a decade after his last MLB game. Every single time he comes to the plate, I’m going to Hawk Harrelson’s Mark Buehrle perfect game call in my head: “Alexei???!!!!!”
16) Clair: Australia
This team has Major League talent all around the diamond, with Aaron Whitefield, Curtis Mead, Jack O’Loughlin, and Warwick Saupold all having seen big league action and -- oh, yeah -- the No. 1 overall pick from the 2024 Draft will make his World Baseball Classic debut. It’s not like Travis Bazzana has been dreaming about this since he was back in the Cape Cod League or anything.
Manager Dave Nilsson used his bullpen perfectly last time around, and now he has a few guys with some Major League experience, plus Lachlan Wells is fresh off his debut in the KBO. Maybe this is Australia’s year, giving team captain and firefighter Tim Kennelly -- likely in his last tourney after retiring from the ABL earlier this winter -- a fitting sendoff.
17) Leitch: Israel
There are current and former big leaguers sprinkled everywhere here. (Welcome back, Matt Bowman and Robert Stock!) Harrison Bader is probably the star player, though I’ll find myself looking into the dugout a lot, with Brad Ausmus managing and Kevin Youkilis, Jerry Narron and Jason Marquis on the staff. I wish we had two Gelof Brothers rather than one (just Jake, not Zack), but we do have two Stubbs Brothers behind the plate (Garrett and C.J.). Israel needs a win in this WBC to make sure it qualifies for the next one. I think they’ll get one.
18) Clair: Czechia
Czechia’s baseball growth has gone supernova since the 2023 WBC, when they became viral sensations and earned the respect of Shohei Ohtani. Since then, they’ve played exhibition games against Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Minor League clubs in the U.S., set attendance records when they hosted the 2023 European Baseball Championship and -- just a few months ago -- won their first-ever medal when they collected bronze at the 2025 Euros.
While this is a team of firefighters, electrical workers and field caretakers, manager Pavel Chadim (himself a neurologist in Brno) recently said that about half the team would be in pro baseball had they been born in the U.S. or Japan. Their performance on the field has proven that.
I would have picked them a little higher if not for being placed in one of the most difficult pools, but don’t be surprised if this team overperforms again. Czechia has proven that it’s a baseball nation. (And hey, if you want to read more about this team, well gee whiz, I have a book coming out about them on April 1. You should buy it and read it! Available here and wherever fine books are sold.)
19) Leitch: Nicaragua
There was absolutely no way I was going to swipe Czechia from you, Michael. (Buy the book, people!) Anyway, down to my final pick, I’ll go with a team that went 0-4 at the 2023 WBC but does have a legitimate big league player (and someone who could still be a future star) in the Mets’ Mark Vientos. There are some other familiar names here -- Erasmo Ramírez and Jeter Downs among them -- but it’ll be tough for them to win a game. I do think it’ll be tougher for your final pick, though.
20) Clair: Brazil
While Brazil may not be favorites, the program is looking up. In this tournament they’ll be joined by three sons of Major Leaguers: Dante Bichette Jr., Lucas Ramirez (Manny’s son), and 17-year-old Joseph Contreras (Jose’s son). The pitching staff has Bo Takahashi from the NPB’s Seibu Lions, Rangers Minor Leaguer Daniel Missaki, and Tiago da Silva, who has played everywhere around the world. With an academy that is now humming with MLB’s support, 2026 may not be Brazil’s year, but it could set the stage for better things in the future.