PHILADELPHIA -- Old habits resurfaced at one of the worst possible times for the Phillies on Thursday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
Despite Zack Wheeler once again looking more and more like his usual self, the Phils were dealt a crushing 2-1 defeat by the Astros on a day when they managed only three hits. The free-swinging ways that plagued Philadelphia earlier this season not only returned, but did so at an historical level.
The Phillies finished with a chase rate of 52.3% against a quartet of Houston pitchers. In other words, of the 65 pitches thrown out of the zone to Phillies hitters, they swung at more of them (34) than they took (31).
It was the first time the Phillies had a chase rate higher than 50% in a single game since that stat was first tracked in 2009.
“Obviously, Wheels went out there and did his job,” said Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper. “Obviously, as an offense, we weren't really able to get it going.”
Unable to break through offensively against the Astros’ pitching staff, the Phillies called upon closer Jhoan Duran with the game deadlocked at 1-1 entering the ninth. After retiring the first batter, Duran served up what proved to be the decisive home run to Astros outfielder Cam Smith.
It was just the second homer allowed by Duran this season. The other came all the way back on May 22, when Cleveland's Kyle Manzardo also took Duran deep to break a tie.
Making matters even worse for the Phillies (82-65), the shocking ending came just more than an hour after the National League East-leading Braves (86-61)had staged a late rally of their own to knock off the Rays. That extended Atlanta's NL East lead to four games over the Phillies heading into this weekend's crucial three-game set at Truist Park.
“As an offense, we’ve got to be better,” Harper said. “The last couple games, obviously, didn’t go the way we wanted them to. Just got to turn the page the best we can, and go get Atlanta.”
The loss also cut the Phillies' lead over the Cubs (81-66) to just one game for the top NL Wild Card spot. Both the Braves and the Cubs have already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies.
The Phils will need to finish ahead of either the Braves or the Cubs if they want to host the best-of-three Wild Card Series.
“It's super important. Very important,” Harper said of securing home-field advantage for that first round. “Obviously, trying to run down the Braves and the Cubs at the same time. We want to play at home. We obviously want to be here and play in front of our fans, sleep in our own bed and have the opportunity to play at our ballpark.
“It's a huge advantage in the postseason. I know it is.”
The Phillies have come a long way to even put themselves in this spot. They gradually climbed back into the postseason picture following their slow start, but a scorching August changed the conversation from simply trying to snag one of the final Wild Card spots to making a push for one of those coveted top four seeds.
Considering the Braves own the tiebreaker, anything less than a sweep this weekend would put a significant damper on the Phillies’ chances at a third straight NL East title. They go into that series having scored two runs or fewer in five of their past 10 games -- and things won’t get any easier in Friday night’s series opener.
“Just got to play winning baseball,” Harper said. “Obviously, we've got Chris Sale [on Friday], so that's going to be a tough task. Just got to keep going.”
One of the keys behind that August surge was a newfound discipline at the plate.
Their strikeout rate in August dipped to just 15.9%, tied for the lowest in the Majors. Their chase rate was down to 29.7%, tied for 10th best in MLB. Prior to August, they were striking out at a 23.7% clip (sixth highest in MLB), thanks in large part to a 33.8% chase rate.
That chase rate was the second worst in the Majors through July. Only the Rockies were worse.
That problem returned to the forefront on Thursday, when the Phillies chased at a higher rate than they had in any game over the past 18 seasons.
Of course, it’s only one game, albeit an important one. Plus, it did come just one day after the Phillies scored 11 runs off 12 hits.
“I think we'll be OK. I really do,” Harper said. “I don't see us going backwards in those situations. I think we'll be fine. Obviously, we've got to do it.”
And if they don't?
“Then it's going to look exactly like it did the last couple years,” Harper said.