DUNEDIN, Fla. -- The unknown is the fun part of this. That’s where the upside lives.
Cody Ponce is one of the Blue Jays’ biggest variables, and spring is the time to dream on what it could look like if everything goes right.
Around Ponce, the top of the Blue Jays’ rotation is made of concrete. Kevin Gausman is in the final year of one of the best free-agent deals the Blue Jays have given out, the face of this rotation and everything they want in a pitcher. Dylan Cease just landed, too, on a seven-year, $210 million deal, while Trey Yesavage represents an incredible ceiling and José Berríos represents a sturdy floor.
Ponce, in the middle of it all, holds so much power. This rotation is already good, and if everyone performs to expectations, the group should take a clear step forward from 2025. If Ponce carries his Korean renaissance back to the Major Leagues, though, the Blue Jays’ rotation could be great, perhaps one of the best in the American League.
“We did some really good things last year, obviously, but we’re always looking at ways to get better,” John Schneider said. “How can you improve a starting staff that can miss more bats? That’s where Dylan, Cody and Trey come in.”
Ponce seems so energized in these early days.
In 2020-21, Ponce bounced up and down with the Pirates, posting a 5.86 ERA over 55 1/3 innings. He eventually landed in Japan, then finally in Korea for the 2025 season, where it all came together with the Hanwha Eagles. Ponce posted a 1.89 ERA with 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings, earning the league’s MVP Award. He’s come back to the big leagues with so much momentum.
“I’m very excited,” Ponce said. “I think that we have a great starting staff, great bullpen staff with [closer Jeff] Hoffman as the back-end guy, too. But I have a lot to learn. I don’t know much, so it’s been a while since I’ve been up here. I’m just going to pick everybody’s brains and try to have the most success I can.”
He’s in good hands, too. When you step inside the Blue Jays’ clubhouse, the starters have always sat in a group together along the right wall. It’s where the big dogs sit.
“They kind of have me surrounded by all of them,” Ponce said with a big smile. “I’ve got Berríos to my right and I’ve got Cease to my left. Bieber is down below me, then Gausman is right next to him. I just listen and talk a little bit, try to grasp everything that they’re going through, and they try to teach me at the same time.”
Again on Sunday, Ponce repeated what we heard from him soon after the signing, which is that he’s found his inner child again. He wants to keep a smile on his face, enjoy the game and throw on a Star Wars movie. He’s trying to enjoy this ride. Nothing makes that easier than winning, of course.
The Blue Jays’ rotation last season sat in the middle of the pack. Its 4.34 ERA ranked 20th in baseball, but the group got stronger as the year went on with the addition of Bieber and the late breakout of Yesavage. There’s so much room for improvement, though.
In the regular season, the Blue Jays got a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts from Max Scherzer and a 6.05 ERA over 14 starts from Bowden Francis. Combined, that’s one full season of a spot in the starting rotation that looks awfully easy to upgrade. If we really want to simplify things, Ponce is the man tasked with replacing that spot in the rotation.
The Blue Jays would be thrilled with “solid," but there’s more to Ponce. What if the magic he discovered in Korea came back with him? What if that kick change works in the big leagues? What if his strikeout rate stays up above 10.0 K/9 over a full season?
On the other hand, what will go wrong? This rotation, like all rotations, will hit some potholes, maybe blow a tire along the way. That’s baseball, but Spring Training is the time to look off into the distance and imagine how well this could all work out. If that’s going to happen, and if the Blue Jays’ rotation is going to make the leap from good to great, Ponce has as much power as anyone to be the reason.