What can Sox expect from Price, Kimbrel in G5?

October 28th, 2018

Though Red Sox manager Alex Cora had staff ace Chris Sale lined up to start what could be a decisive World Series Game 5 on regular rest, he took the baseball world by surprise after his team's Game 4 victory when he tabbed as his Game 5 starter at Dodger Stadium.
After developing a reputation of inconsistency in the postseason throughout much of his 11-year career, Price has turned the narrative on its head over his past two starts, throwing six scoreless innings in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series before another effective six-inning start in World Series Game 2 on Wednesday.
"It's definitely a weight lifted off of me for sure," Price said before the World Series. "Not like food tastes better or anything like that. But it was time. And I'm definitely glad that the time came and we moved past it."
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Price now gets the ball one more time in another potential clincher for the Red Sox, but this time, it's a World Series championship on the line opposite Dodgers ace and three-time National League Cy Young Award winner . Here are some key FAQs in advance of the 33-year-old left-hander's second start of the World Series.
How many innings can Sox expect from Price?
Sunday will mark the second time this postseason that Price will start on short rest, and the abbreviated timeline certainly didn't appear to hold him back in his last such start, when he threw six shutout innings and struck out nine in ALCS Game 5 to pitch the Red Sox to the AL pennant after going three days between starts for the first time in his career.
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This time, it's slightly different: In addition to having started four days ago, Price pitched two-thirds of an inning of relief in Friday's marathon Game 3 -- 13 high-leverage pitches in the ninth inning of a tie game. Though Price has never started on one day of rest in his career, the situation isn't without precedent this postseason: Brewers left-hander notably pitched to one batter to open NLCS Game 5 before starting again in Game 6, two days later, not to mention , who started Saturday night for Boston after facing one batter on Friday.
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But it bears noting that Price has been effective on short rest. In the past two postseasons, he's thrown 10 2/3 scoreless innings in appearances on three or fewer days' rest, including four shutout innings of relief in AL Division Series Game 3 last year, two days after throwing 2 2/3 innings in Game 2. Price has allowed two runs in 12 1/3 innings over seven career such regular-season appearances.

Even with the shorter hooks for starting pitchers, Price is one of six pitchers with multiple starts of at least six innings this postseason. He's also pitched well at NL parks in his career, owning a 3.13 ERA (and a 2.76 ERA excluding Coors Field) in such stadiums, including a 2.25 ERA in two career starts at Dodger Stadium. Given his track record and the other factors in play, it seems reasonable that Red Sox fans can expect five innings out of Price if he's effective, and six wouldn't be out of the question.
Why has Price been more effective in his past two starts?
In his Game 4 start against Houston, Price's liberal use of his changeup was the primary factor in his success. He threw 40 changeups among his 93 pitches that day, the second-most changeups he's thrown in a start during since Statcast™ began tracking in 2015 and his highest-percentage usage of the pitch in that span.
The Astros were the best in baseball at putting the bat on the ball during the regular season, with a Majors-leading 41.2 percent of their swings resulting in a ball in play. But they were lost against Price's changeup, with 12 whiffs on the pitch and weak contact when they did manage to hit it, averaging a paltry 71.7 mph exit velocity on balls in play off the changeup.

In his World Series start on Wednesday, Price went with a different game plan, using his changeup less but finding effective command of both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs to keep the Dodgers off balance.
Price staved off solid contact with the late movement on his two-seamer -- 10 of the 13 swings that Dodgers hitters took on the pitch resulted in whiffs or foul balls -- and Los Angeles didn't appear to see Price's four-seamer well, taking nine for called strikes and averaging only a 77.8 mph exit velocity on the seven it did put in play. Though the seven balls put in play off Price's fastball matched the most this season, the average exit velocity was the third lowest against the pitch this year.
After Wednesday's result, the Dodgers are likely more prepared for Price's fastball mix this time around, meaning that his changeup, which dominated the Astros, could play a bigger role tonight. Los Angeles ranked 10th among NL teams in average exit velocity against the changeup this season, though the Dodgers don't whiff against it at a high rate.
Who is available to give the Red Sox innings after Price?
Cora has gone all-in with his pitching usage during this World Series, and if the Red Sox smell victory with a late lead, nothing would be off the table for Boston -- not even Sale, who would start a possible Game 6 in Boston on Tuesday. That's a mindset that has set the tone for Boston's clubhouse -- as MLB.com's Ian Browne reported, Sale, Price and (the Red Sox's Game 3 starter) all asked to start Game 4.
Because Boston got length out of both Rodriguez (5 2/3 innings) and Joe Kelly (2 innings) on Saturday night, the Red Sox were able to mostly conserve their bullpen after the 18-inning Game 3, with Kelly, Matt Barnes and the only Boston relievers to pitch in each of the two previous games.
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At least from a usage standpoint, (did not pitch in Game 4) and Barnes (11 pitches in Game 4) should have the freshest arms, and Porcello should also factor into the picture after throwing only 61 pitches in his Friday start. Given the high pitch counts of Kelly (42) and Kimbrel (56) in the past two days, Sale would make sense in moderation to protect a late lead.
But win or lose, the Sox are off Monday, and if they're ahead late, it might be hard to keep the ball out of Kelly or Kimbrel's hands.
What can they expect from Kimbrel?
The Red Sox's closer is no stranger to pitching on three consecutive days, having done so 27 times over the course of his career, including once earlier this season, from April 24-26.
With that said, Kimbrel has never done it in the playoffs, and he only did so once after throwing more than 50 pitches on the first two days, when he threw 51 pitches from April 21-22, 2011, ahead of a five-pitch, one-out save on April 23. Kimbrel threw 28 pitches in each game on Friday and Saturday in the pressure-packed environment of high-leverage innings on the road in the World Series.

Kimbrel has a sterling record on the third day of those heavy-usage streaks. He's held opponents scoreless in 24 of 27 such games, and hitless in 19 of those appearances. The last time Kimbrel allowed a run in such a game was back in 2016. In a possible save situation tonight, he will likely plead his case with Cora -- and the numbers will back him up.
How will Dodgers line up against Price?
The big question facing manager Dave Roberts is if he will revert to the right-handed lineup without , and that he used for Games 1 and 2 against Sale and Price, or if it will look more like the balanced lineup that played Saturday against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, which included both Bellinger and Muncy.
was the Dodgers' leadoff hitter in Games 1 and 2, likely due to his favorable history against Sale and Price, but he is 2-for-16 this postseason. Dozier has a lifetime .724 OPS with two homers and four doubles in 41 at-bats against Price, and Price himself noted in a news conference that Dozier has hit well against him.

Bellinger is a combined 1-for-12 in the past two games, both starts. Muncy had two hits, including the 18th-inning walk-off homer, on Friday, and he knocked a hit in Game 4, though it came off the right-hander Kelly after Rodriguez exited the game. It's worth noting that eight of the Dodgers' 15 runs this series have come on homers, including seven of their nine runs in the past two games.
Price allowed four homers to lefties and 21 to right-handed hitters during the regular season. Bellinger and Muncy both have pronounced platoon splits, but Muncy was still a well-above-average hitter (.891 OPS) against lefties this season.