ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s been nearly 50 years since the Chicago White Sox had the No. 1 pick in the Draft. But the last time they did, that selection turned into a Hall of Famer.
That was Harold Baines, and perhaps he brought No. 1 pick mojo to the organization as the White Sox representative for the fourth MLB Draft Lottery on Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings because they received the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 Draft, which will take place next July 11-12 in Philadelphia. The very top of the lottery went according to chalk for the first time, with the White Sox entering with the best odds -- 27.73 percent to be precise -- to land the coveted spot.
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“It’s an opportunity to boost what we have going on right now,” White Sox general manager Chris Getz told MLB Network. “It’s an honor, it’s a huge responsibility. I’m just so happy for everyone. You prepare for all kinds of scenarios emotionally, but I can’t understate how big of a deal this is.”
For the first time in this Draft Lottery era, there appears to be a clear target at No. 1. UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is the consensus top player in the class, leading MLB Pipeline’s recently released Draft Top 100 prospects list.
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The White Sox aren’t strangers to picking near the top, though, earning a lottery pick (No. 5 overall) in 2024 and picking No. 10 last year, when they weren’t eligible for the lottery. They also had the No. 3 pick in 2019 (Andrew Vaughn) and No. 4 in 2018 (Nick Madrigal).
“I’m still learning more and more about the Draft,” Getz said. “I’m getting familiar with some of the top names. It looks like, at the top of the Draft, that it’s a really impressive one. On top of that, when you look at the pool space that you’re given and a chance to really walk away from a Draft class and do some damage, bring in some real talent. I look forward to diving in further.”
After the White Sox, the biggest winners, especially in terms of overcoming the odds, were the Rays, Giants and Royals. The Rays had a 3.03 percent chance of winning the lottery, ranking seventh, but catapulted up to the No. 2 overall pick, the first time they’ve had a pick in the top five since they took Brendan McKay in 2017.
“I hope one day winning a championship is what we say is the thing we are most proud of as an organization,” Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander said. “But in the meantime, I think truly what we’ve been most proud of is that we’ve avoided the peaks and valleys. It hasn’t been a swell to get to the playoffs and then a huge drop. We’ve gone a long time here in the Rays era without picking in the top 10. … Really proud of the sustained success and giving that many teams a chance to compete.
“But in doing that, you do cut off one of the access points to the best talent the game has to offer. Last year, we dropped back a few. That wasn’t a lot of fun. Wasn’t a big fan of the lottery system last Winter Meetings. Had to call in the reinforcements. When the Rays and Brett Phillips [the team’s representative at the Lottery] get together, good things happen. Here we are, pick No. 2.”
The Giants were 12th with a 1.01 percent chance of nabbing that top pick, but landed the No. 4 pick. The Royals also made a huge jump, going from No. 13 with their 0.84 percent odds up to the final pick in the lottery, at No. 6.
"I didn’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but I did know that based on how things worked, if we weren’t called by 15, that we would be inside the top six,” Giants vice president of player development Randy Winn said. “Once we weren’t sixth and then once we weren’t five, I was like, ‘Well, maybe.’
“Drafting is hard, but we’re definitely excited to be picking so early in the Draft. It’s been a while since I believe we’ve drafted this high. We’ve got some time, we’ve got some work to do ahead of us."
“It’s awesome. It’s exciting,” said Royals general manager J.J. Picollo. “We had less than a one percent chance of getting the first pick, we probably should have been closer to 16, so to get the sixth pick, you feel like there’s a little vindication. We dropped in previous years. We were so disappointed a couple of years there with how much we fell with good chances, high percentages, to get the first pick and we tumbled. To hit a year where we had good fortune, that’s exciting for us. It’s a great opportunity for the scouting department. Excited to see what we can do with that pick.”
On the other side of that coin, the Orioles were the team with the best odds (9.24 percent) to not earn a lottery pick, coming in after the Royals at No. 7. The A’s were right behind the O’s, odds-wise (6.55), but also didn’t land one of the top six selections.
The first round of the 2026 Draft will unfold as follows, with numbers in parentheses denoting where the teams ranked in the lottery odds and their odds of winning the top overall pick:
1. White Sox (1, 27.7%)
2. Rays (7, 3.03%)
3. Twins (2, 22.2%)
4. Giants (12, 1.0%)
5. Pirates (3, 16.8%)
6. Royals (13, 0.8%)
7. Orioles (4, 9.24%)
8. A’s (5, 6.6%)
9. Braves (6, 4.5%)
10. Rockies (ineligible for lottery pick)
11. Nationals (ineligible for lottery pick)
12. Angels (ineligible for lottery pick)
13. Cardinals (8, 2.3%)
14. Marlins (9, 1.8%)
15. D-backs (10, 1.5%)
16. Rangers (11, 1.3%)
17. Astros (15, 0.3%)
Since the Rockies received a lottery pick in the 2024 and '25 Drafts, they were not eligible for this year’s lottery -- teams cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. The Nationals and Angels are payor clubs -- teams that give rather than receive revenue sharing dollars -- and payors cannot receive a lottery pick in consecutive years.
A year from now, the White Sox, Pirates and Giants will be ineligible for the lottery and won’t be able to pick higher than No. 10 overall. Chicago and San Francisco are payor clubs and the Pirates will be on the outside looking in after earning back-to-back lottery selections.
The Mets were eligible (0.67 percent odds), but didn’t win a lottery pick for 2026. They would have slotted in at No. 17, but they’re projected to be penalized 10 spots on their first pick for exceeding the second competitive balance tax threshold. The Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Dodgers are expected to join the Mets in having the 10-pick penalty assessed. Here’s how the Draft will unfold through pick No. 40, when the Dodgers make their first selection:
18. Reds
19. Guardians
20. Red Sox
21. Padres
22. Tigers
23. Cubs
24. Mariners
25. Brewers
26. Braves (Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for Drake Baldwin winning NL Rookie of the Year)
27. Mets (Round 1 pick + 10-pick penalty)
28. Astros (Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for Hunter Brown placing in the top three in Cy Young voting)
29. Guardians (Competitive Balance A)
30. Royals (Competitive Balance A)
31. D-backs (Competitive Balance A)
32. Cardinals (Competitive Balance A)
33. Orioles (Competitive Balance A)
34. Pirates (Competitive Balance A)
35. Yankees (Round 1 pick + 10-pick penalty)
36. Phillies (Round 1 pick + 10-pick penalty)
37. Rockies (Competitive Balance A)
38. Rockies (Round 2)
39. Blue Jays (Round 1 pick + 10-pick penalty)
40. Dodgers (Round 1 pick + 10-pick penalty)