This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO -- Nearing the midway point of their season, the Blue Jays are still a team stuck in the middle.
The past three months have been neither tragic nor encouraging, just … OK. A weak Wild Card race in the American League still leaves the second half of this season wide open for the Blue Jays, though, who can erase every narrative that’s been built with one hot week of baseball.
These next six weeks will build toward the Trade Deadline at 6 p.m. ET on Aug. 3, and even if Toronto remains in this cloudy middle group of the AL, the Blue Jays will be buyers, likely aggressive ones. Looking ahead, let’s work through a few questions facing this organization and how those answers could impact their approach to the Deadline:
1) Who is the No. 5 starter after the Deadline?
One through four, the Blue Jays are in a fine place with Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and the return of Shane Bieber. The No. 5 job is still up in the air long term, though, and by the time the buzzer sounds at the Trade Deadline, it feels like we’ll have a new answer.
First, the internal options. Patrick Corbin helped save the Blue Jays’ rotation for two months -- which must not be forgotten -- but the past four starts haven’t been kind to him. Corbin has allowed 14 runs over 15 1/3 innings (8.22 ERA) with 11 strikeouts and nine walks. He’s failed to get out of the fourth inning in each of his past three starts, too, straining a bullpen that’s already carrying too heavy a load.
Max Scherzer (back spasms) could still get another crack at this when he’s back from the IL, too, but the 41-year-old owns a 10.23 ERA over 22 innings this season, bogged down by multiple injuries along the way. If Corbin or Scherzer suddenly rights the ship, that’s wonderful, but Toronto clearly needs to be looking at other options.
Internally, keep an eye on Jake Bloss. The Blue Jays’ No. 7 prospect is back from Tommy John surgery, and he has made seven rehab starts. His most recent came with Triple-A Buffalo, where he allowed two runs over four innings (65 pitches). Toronto has a crowded “bulk” group that includes Chad Dallas -- who deserves more chances -- and Lazaro Estrada, but Bloss could soon represent something closer to a full starting option.
More realistically? This is all settled at the Trade Deadline. Toronto isn't afraid to swing big on starters, which we’ve seen with both Bieber (in 2025) and José Berríos (2021). Keep in mind, too, that Gausman, Bieber and Scherzer will all be free agents after this season, so starters with control beyond 2026 will be particularly attractive to the Blue Jays. The top starters potentially available could include the Tigers' Tarik Skubal, the Angels' Reid Detmers, the Twins' Joe Ryan, the Mets' Freddy Peralta, the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara and more.
2) Do the Blue Jays have something in Keys?
The hottest hitter in this organization is with Triple-A Buffalo.
Big Sean Keys has 18 home runs with a 1.016 OPS, success he’s carried right through his recent promotion to the Bisons. Toronto hasn't found its groove yet at the plate, so any offensive upgrade must be explored, especially one that’s just a phone call away.
Where would Keys play, though? The club’s No. 14 prospect is a corner infielder, bouncing between first and third. We just saw how little Charles McAdoo played in his time with the big club, and with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kazuma Okamoto at the corners, there’s not much room, especially when Addison Barger returns as another option at the hot corner.
Still, Keys is making himself undeniable. Given the potential for MLB-level pieces to be moved at the Deadline, too, it might not even take an injury for Keys to get the call.
3) Who are the likeliest trade candidates?
This is even more challenging than predicting trade targets, but we can look to past behaviour from this front office and match it with what clubs might be looking for.