7 key storylines to follow in July

4:43 AM UTC

July is the month when we find out.

We find out who the real contenders are, who is all-in for this season … and who is thinking about next year. We learn the contours of the rest of the season: the competitors, the stakes, all the players on the stage.

This is the month to figure out what you are, what you lack, what you need and what you’re willing -- or not willing -- to add. It is the last chance: It is the month that gives us answers to our most vital questions. The Trade Deadline is actually a few days later than usual this year, on Aug. 3, so some of these questions will bleed a little into the next month. But only a little. July is the big one. July is clarifying. And now, it has arrived.

Here’s a look at the seven biggest storylines we’ll be watching in July.

1. What’s going to happen with ?

The two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner returned to action relatively quickly after surgery to remove a loose body from his left elbow, thanks to a NanoScope procedure. However, in his first three starts back -- until Wednesday night’s rebound at Yankee Stadium -- Skubal did not quite look like the pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to watching, posting a 4.96 ERA and allowing six homers in 16 1/3 innings.

His underlying metrics were a little better than that, to be sure. But any team that trades for a rental player (even one this accomplished) would obviously like to have more assurance that the Cy-caliber version of Skubal is fully back before giving up a big haul. As long as Skubal looks sharper, though, suitors will be lining up for a pitcher who is potentially a massive difference-maker in the playoff race -- and the postseason.

The Tigers are nine games out in the AL Central and 6 1/2 out of the last AL Wild Card spot, with just the Angels and Royals behind them in the AL standings. But while you’d think they have no choice but to ship out Skubal, the nature of the AL race also means that one hot week could put them right back in this and change that calculus. One way or another: You’ll be hearing about Skubal every day this month, and likely into the next one.

2. Who are buyers and sellers?

While we’re on the subject, this is the fundamental question of July: Who’s in, and who’s out? Will disappointing teams like the Mets, Red Sox, Tigers and Orioles sell? Will surprising teams like the Cardinals, Marlins, Nationals and White Sox buy? Or just hold? Who will be the big names moved?

That’s a lot of questions. July (and the first few days of August) will provide the answers.

3. Will someone create some separation in the Cy Young races?

The National League field remains incredibly deep, but with Paul Skenes and Shohei Ohtani fading a bit in June, there looks to be a clearer top two: the Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez and the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski. The Miz has become a must-watch attraction every start; he’s the clear frontrunner. He’s also 24 and has never pitched a full MLB season, while Sánchez has made 30-plus starts two seasons in a row.

There’s a somewhat similar issue in the American League. The Yankees’ Cam Schlittler is the clear favorite at the moment, with no other AL pitcher especially close. But Schlittler also is in his first full MLB season, and it’s asking a lot of a young player to keep this up all year. Will someone make a serious run at him this month? Will it be the Rangers’ Jacob deGrom? The Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease? The Rays’ Drew Rasmussen? Your guess is as good as mine. July should hopefully clarify.

4. Who will have the big All-Star moment?

With America celebrating its 250th birthday this summer, Philadelphia was always the logical place to host the All-Star Game, and it should be quite the spectacle. And it should definitely have a home team flavor: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are two of the game’s biggest stars, and they’re not even the three Phillies who are finalists to be voted in as starters: Those would be Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh. (Of course, Sánchez has a strong case to start on the mound, as well.)

And don’t forget Mike Trout, famously connected to Philadelphia and likely to be healthy in time for the game. He’s a two-time All-Star Game MVP, and no one has ever won three. Will this be the year someone does? Or will an emerging young star capture those honors? Either way, this will be one of the higher-profile All-Star Games of recent vintage.

5. Can the White Sox keep this up?

Some teams that were lightly regarded heading into the season have impressed in the first half, from the Cardinals to the Marlins to even the Rays, but no team has dropped jaws more than the White Sox have. This team has lost 100-plus games three seasons in a row, including a truly nightmarish 121-loss season in 2024.

Now they’re not only in first place, but they’ve also got a home crowd with more juice than we’ve seen in a decade-plus, to the point that everybody in Chicago is getting 1983 vibes. (Even Ron Kittle is involved!) The AL Central is not exactly a juggernaut. The Guardians, the presumed favorite, have been slammed with injuries, but we are still talking about a pretty huge jump here to go from 102 losses to division champions. One thing that will help: The return of Munetaka Murakami, who should be back early in July.

6. Will the AL West settle?

When longtime Cardinals team president and general manager John Mozeliak took over as Angels interim general manager on Friday after the firing of Perry Minasian, the presumption was that he’d help set the tone of the franchise for the future. But hey: The Angels are only 7 1/2 games out in the AL West! Maybe they’ll make a run! That’s the state of the AL West heading into July, with only one team, the Rangers, above .500 and everyone else just trying to keep their heads above water.

While the A’s, Rangers and Astros are trying not to fade -- and it should be said that Houston has come on quite a bit in the last month -- the biggest story of the division remains the inability of the Mariners to create any separation. This is a team that came oh-so-close to the World Series in 2025 and that many (including me) picked to reach it this year. The issue has been the offense: It turns out that Cal Raleigh really was carrying this team last season. You’d think Seattle would make a run at some point, but it hasn’t happened yet.

7. Who will be drafted that we’re talking about soon?

The 2026 MLB Draft begins July 11, and if you think that’s something that’s just about the distant future, well, let us remind you about just some of the players who were picked only two years ago:

These guys are all Major League contributors right now, and some are already stars. We didn’t have to wait long for them. (We might also see Mariners left-hander Kade Anderson, picked third overall in last year’s Draft, down the stretch this season as well.)

So as you peruse MLB Pipeline’s list of the top 2026 Draft prospects, just know: These are names you should get to know.