Tigers' future with Skubal could come down to 13-day stretch

DETROIT -- One of the best qualities of Tarik Skubal -- beyond the triple-digit fastball, filthy changeup and buckling curveball -- is the fact that he is much the same person as a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner that he was as a gangly rookie trying to make Detroit’s rotation as a former ninth-round Draft pick. He hasn’t built a wall around him, even as the attention and requests have multiplied around him the last couple of years. And he is a big reason the Tigers clubhouse is a welcoming place for rookies to settle in, from Kevin McGonigle to Hao-Yu Lee to Ben Malgeri to Eduardo Valencia.

At the same time, he knows the spotlight is about to intensify unlike anything he has experienced outside of the playoffs. And there isn’t much he can do about it at this point, other than pitch and hopefully win … a lot.

“The faith in this team has never changed,” Skubal said last Sunday. “I still believe in all of our guys. We’re going to come back Friday and be hungry. I think everybody in this clubhouse is hungry to win each and every day. At the end of the day, that’s what really matters.”

Record at the break: 44-52 (4th in AL Central, 6 1/2 games back)
Record at the break last year: 59-38 (1st in AL Central, 11 1/2 games up)
Playoff odds: 27.8 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .489 (5th easiest in MLB)

Three weeks from now, Skubal will either be on a different team for his final two months before free agency, or he’ll be the face of a Tigers team going all-in to try for a third straight playoff run and risking a loss of return on a big asset in the process.

In the end, it’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris’ call along with general manager Jeff Greenberg. Skubal’s input in the matter is pitching, though his comments a few weeks ago to the Detroit News about needing to turn things around to keep this team together looks in hindsight like a rallying cry.

“I don’t know if me saying anything changed anything,” Skubal said last Saturday. “I don’t really want to take credit for how our team has been playing baseball. I just think that we’re playing a really good brand. We’re running the ball out of the yard. We’re having a lot of quality at-bats, playing great defense. Starting pitching has been fantastic. Relievers have done their jobs and gotten us zeros and picked us up when we needed them to. It’s just fundamental baseball, and it’s been a ton of fun.”

That momentum cooled over the weekend when the Tigers ran into what manager A.J. Hinch called a “buzz saw” of starting pitching in National League All-Star starter Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler. That those back-to-back losses dropped the Tigers’ postseason odds from 39 to 23 percent, according to FanGraphs, says a lot about the needle the Tigers are trying to thread.

“If we’re going to try to ride the roller coaster of every single game after a loss or a win, you guys can write it, I’m not gonna,” Skubal said. “I’m going to stay pretty even throughout. My belief will never change in these guys.”

In 2015, then-Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski went through a similar conundrum, took the decision to the final 48 hours before the Trade Deadline, then decided to sell when the Tigers lost two of three in Tampa Bay. Detroit stood just 3 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot at the time, but had played middling baseball all summer after a hot start. Over the ensuing hours, Dombrowski traded David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria for prospect packages that included Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer, Dombrowski’s final acquisitions before the Tigers parted ways a few days later.

What Harris is weighing now is a bit different. The Tigers are in a better stretch now than the 2015 Tigers had at any point all summer. A Wild Card spot now earns a best-of-three series rather than a winner-take-all single game. While Price, Cespedes and Soria were essentially one-year Tigers, Skubal and Casey Mize are homegrown Tigers with more history. And this year’s Tigers aren’t an aging group.

Harris also has the bonus of an amateur scouting group that has made the most of Draft picks. The Tigers drafted All-Star Kevin McGonigle in 2023 out of a Draft slot similar to the comp pick they would get next year if Skubal declined a qualifying offer and left as a free agent. It’s far from a sure thing, but it’s also far from doom.

How Harris and the Tigers front office weigh all that will be fascinating to watch in the weeks ahead. Skubal will try to stay out of it.

“You guys do a great job of writing all that stuff,” Skubal smiled.

Biggest need: Veteran right-handed bat, or pitching prospects
If the Tigers are going to go for it, a veteran right-handed bat is a must for Hinch to leverage matchups with effective pinch-hitters and role players who crush lefties. They’re batting about 40 points lower against lefties than last year with about an 80-point plunge in OPS, and the dropoff is even greater among right-handed hitters off lefties. Jahmai Jones was designated for assignment, leaving rookies Lee, Malgeri and Valencia to carry the load. If the Tigers decide to sell, they need to add arms to the farm system. Even after drafting Cameron Flukey in the first round last weekend, the Tigers are short on projectable young MLB starters beyond Troy Melton, Jackson Jobe, Keider Montero, Reese Olson and Ty Madden.

Biggest chips: Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize
Skubal will be the biggest name in baseball around the Deadline, just as he has been since last offseason. But with just two months of control and free agency looming, dreams of a massive prospect package might be rosy unless the Dodgers decide to jump in and then extend him without needing to give up a Draft pick. If the Tigers indeed end up becoming sellers, Mize is a sneaky name to watch and could attract a wider market than Skubal. And like Skubal, Mize is a free agent at season’s end.

Key player for second half: Gleyber Torres
The Tigers offense looked a lot more dangerous when Torres returned from a left oblique strain on June 2, only to see him go back on the injured list with an aggravation 15 days later. His plate discipline and contact make him a natural fit at the top of the order and deepens the lineup behind him, and he gives the lineup a much-needed veteran right-handed bat against lefties. He begins a rehab assignment this week and could be back shortly after the break.

Determining factor: 13 days, 13 games out of the break
Harris’ historic patience gives the Tigers time to make their case that they have a real chance for a third consecutive postseason run. They’ll play 13 games in 13 days in three time zones out of the All-Star break, starting in Anaheim, shifting to Wrigley Field, then a six-game homestand against the Royals and Orioles. If they’re close in the Wild Card race, even if they’re still under .500, they’ll put pressure on Harris to keep this team together for the stretch run.