This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- The Braves heard your pleas to begin utilizing deferrals. But instead of deferring salary payments, they have opted to defer making offseason additions.
Just kidding. But I want a portion of the proceeds if somebody slaps this on a T-shirt.
Anyhow, a new year has arrived and we’re still waiting to see how the Braves might upgrade their roster. Pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training a little more than a month from now, but we still don’t know who will fill the final spots in the outfield, rotation and bullpen.
Even though this offseason has been highlighted by Travis d’Arnaud’s departure and other moves to lower 2025 costs, there’s still time to make sure Bryan De La Cruz isn’t this winter’s most significant addition.
When Nathan Eovaldi signed his three-year, $75 million deal with the Rangers last month, there was more reason to question whether the Braves should reunite with Charlie Morton. But while there was dialogue between the two parties, there was never a serious attempt to re-sign Morton, who inked a one-year, $15 million deal with the Orioles over the weekend.
With Morton off the board, who are some of the available free agent starting pitchers?
Kyle Gibson -- Morton is 41, but he’s also one of just 20 pitchers who have totaled 500-plus innings over the past three seasons. The 37-year-old Gibson is the only remaining free agent who fits the same description. Morton was more effective whether looking at ERA (4.06 vs. Gibson’s 4.68) or Expected Weighted On-Base Average (.323 vs. Gibson’s .333) over this span.
If Gibson were willing to take a one- or two-year deal with an AAV (average annual value) less than $15 million, then he might make some sense.
Or if Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos extends his practice of thinking outside the box, maybe he would take a chance on…
Jakob Junis -- After spending his early years within the Kansas City and San Francisco rotations, Junis has spent the past few seasons primarily working as a reliever. But he was moved to Cincinnati’s rotation after a Trade Deadline deal this past summer and flourished. The 32-year-old right-hander posted a 1.55 ERA and limited opponents to a .158 on-base percentage in six starts last year. He limited the Braves to one run over six innings on Sept. 18.
If the price is right, this might be a gamble worth taking.
Jose Quintana -- With Max Fried’s departure, Chris Sale is the only left-hander in Atlanta’s projected rotation. If looking to add a southpaw, the Braves could turn to Quintana, who posted a 3.75 ERA over 31 starts for the Mets this past year. He strengthened his market with a strong September. But his 4.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) should create concern about making a significant offer to the 35-year-old hurler.
Jeff Hoffman is another reliever who is looking to follow the path of Clay Holmes, who moved from the Yankees bullpen to the Mets rotation this winter.
Now, let’s just say the Braves don’t add another starting pitcher. They would likely enter the regular season with this rotation:
LHP Sale
RHP Reynaldo López
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
RHP Grant Holmes
RHP Ian Anderson or A.J. Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder
Holmes is out of Minor League options. So, barring injury, you can almost guarantee he will be on the Opening Day roster as a starter or reliever. The odds of him beginning the year in the rotation are increased by the fact Spencer Strider will miss most or all of April recovering from elbow surgery.
The Braves can spend Spring Training and April evaluating Holmes and each of the other rotation candidates. Once Strider returns, the rotation could look like this:
LHP Sale
RHP Strider
RHP López
RHP Schwellenbach
RHP Anderson, Smith-Shawver or Elder
That has the potential to be one of the game’s top rotations. But knowing that Sale, López and Schwellenbach each exceeded durability expectations last year, would you be willing to enter this season without the insurance that could come via the offseason addition of a starting pitcher?