What, exactly, should one make of the upcoming NL East race?
FanGraphs projects the Braves, Phillies and Mets to be within three wins of one another. Baseball Prospectus sees the Braves and Mets as being equal, with the Phillies slightly behind. None project to win more than 91 games. It's a real, genuine, three-team battle, so far as those systems go.
Of course, it was the Phillies who won handily last year, their second division title in a row, by a full 13 games. It was the Braves who won six consecutive titles before that, a stretch that included the 2021 World Series title. It was the Mets who won 101 games in 2022 and reached the National League Championship Series in 2024, and …
… and don’t forget about the Marlins, too, who did actually win three more games than the Braves did last year.
If not exactly the NL Beast – that’s better applied to their American League counterparts – it’s feeling considerably more wide open than usual, too. The big three teams all look good; none look great; and each of them, for various reasons, carry a lot more risk into the season than you’d expect.
While a new, youthful front office in Washington works to move the Nationals into the future, we’re left with the three usual rivals at the top and a potential up-and-comer moving in from the south. We’re looking at fanbases that seem very annoyed (Philadelphia) or moderately annoyed (Atlanta) due to relatively quiet offseasons, or in the case of New York, initially-very-annoyed-and-now-maybe-not-sure-what-to-make-of-all-the-turnover.
We’re looking at projections that are mostly doing their best to avoid picking a favorite. And while you might not love that the Phillies (96-76 last year) aren’t clearly favored over the Braves (76-86), remember that projections aren’t just about what happened last year, either. They’re about the current rosters, and likely expectations. (You might remember the 74-88 Blue Jays becoming the 94-68 Blue Jays, in no small part because George Springer had one of the most out-of-nowhere comeback seasons in recent history.)
Here is a closer look at the starting pitching risk factors facing the top three teams clumped at the top – and what just may make for an opening for a surprisingly interesting Miami club.
Braves
Why the projections favor a rebound from 76-86: Lineup depth matters, and other than shortstop, no position for Atlanta is projected to be worse than average. There's also the reasonable expectation that Ronald Acuña Jr. provides a full, healthy season, after missing the first two months of 2025 recovering from left knee surgery.
The biggest risk factor: The rotation. Easily.
Let’s take a look at the current starting options, shall we?
- Chris Sale (37 in March)
- Spencer Strider (still trying to find his 2022-23 ace form following elbow surgery)
- Reynaldo López (threw 5 innings in 2025 due to shoulder surgery)
- Bryce Elder (5.59 ERA last two seasons)
- Grant Holmes (attempting to pitch through a partially torn UCL)
That’s because Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep each underwent elbow surgeries this month, and when manager Walt Weiss was asked if they were expected to appear in 2026, his answer was “I’m not sure. We all hope for that.” Not reassuring – if refreshingly honest. Additionally, AJ Smith-Shawver is expected to miss most of the first half of 2026 after elbow surgery of his own.
Alongside Joey Wentz (career 5.57 ERA, claimed on waivers last summer), the veteran depth consists mostly of Martín Pérez (nearly 35 years old) and Carlos Carrasco (nearly 39).
It’s not about being untalented, because Sale is still pitching at an elite level, and we’ve seen Strider and López do so in the not-terribly-distance past. It’s about risk. Lots of risk. Risk in the same way that FanGraphs aptly pointed out in a similar way ahead of last season, too, a season when the Braves rotation finished 22nd in ERA.
This year, Dan Szymborski undertook an experiment with the ZiPS projection system figuring out what would happen if each team’s top five had their median innings cut in half – i.e., looking at how good and available the depth is. “In this experiment," he wrote, "the Braves lose more wins than any other team in baseball, dropping nearly eight wins from the typical outlook.”
Talented? Yes. Risky? You better believe it.
Phillies
Why the projections think they’ll be good, but not as good: It’s not “running it back,” not really; show us the Phillies fan who didn’t want Kyle Schwarber back, and while J.T. Realmuto is indeed on the back nine of his career, he was also still easily the best available – really, the only – catching option. It’s largely about the outfield, where Adolis García is coming off two down seasons, prospect Justin Crawford is promising-but-unproven and Brandon Marsh, while excellent after a poor start, hasn’t exactly been consistent over his career. The outfield is projected, currently, to be 23rd best in the Majors, ahead of mostly non-contenders.
The risk factor: The rotation. It’s not exactly like the Braves, but this was, by many measures, the best rotation in baseball in 2025. Now, though, Ranger Suárez is off to Boston, Zack Wheeler is working back from thoracic outlet surgery, and there are huge questions about whether Aaron Nola’s career-worst 2025 was a fluke or a sign of things to come. So last year’s outstanding unit is weakened, with questions about everyone beyond Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo – both of whom set career highs in innings pitched last year.
For example: A year ago, Taijuan Walker seemed like he was on the outside looking in to simply keep a roster spot; now, he’s being counted on to be the fourth starter. Andrew Painter, who was one of baseball’s best prospects before he got injured, has a clear path to win the fifth spot, but he also really needs to -- because the depth consists of a few Minor Leaguers without Major League time, and veteran non-roster invite Bryse Wilson, who has a 4.82 career ERA (5.44 as a starter).
As with Atlanta, if this works, it could really work. Wheeler isn’t expected to miss that much time, and Painter looked like he had all the makings of an ace before he got injured. There’s just not much safety net if it doesn’t.
Mets
Why the projections think they’re a contender after a down year: Because as disappointing as 83-79 was, this was more like an 88-74 team that had a few things go wrong, particularly in high-leverage spots in the bullpen. (Yes, Mets fans. We’re talking about Ryan Helsley.) Of course, this is a very different team now.
The biggest risk factor: Surprise! The rotation. For all the talk about the revamped defense, the truth is that last year’s fielding unit wasn’t exactly a standout, so it shouldn’t be that hard to improve or at the least hold serve. Projections actually love the revised infield, considering it a potential top-five unit, and while there’s still a big question in right field, the presence of Juan Soto and the promise of Luis Robert Jr. helps paper that over to some extent.
The rotation, by any measure, looks to be improved from last year – which, again, is part of the reason why the team should win more games than it did in 2025. They’re projected to be roughly average, which would be a big step up from a unit that had a 5.31 ERA, fourth-weakest, in the second half.
The questions, mostly, are about the middle and back of the rotation. The error bars on what to expect from veterans Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are massive, coming off disappointing and injury-marred seasons, and David Peterson and Clay Holmes each faded after good starts. While Nolan McLean’s debut was impressive – as his spring has been so far – there’s essentially zero chance he’s pitching to a 2.06 ERA for a full season, so don’t make that the expectation. (We think he’ll be excellent, though.)
The more we think about this, the more it becomes possible that this rotation, improbably, could equal or exceed those of their two main rivals. It would help, of course, if all those moving pieces on defense managed to catch some baseballs.
An opening for Miami?
No projection system sees the Marlins as having a realistic chance to win the division. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are in total agreement about this: 75-87, and less than 1% chances to take the East. We’re not saying they’re wrong. We’re not saying the Marlins are clearly a dark horse set to make a miracle run to the first division title in franchise history. (They were a Wild Card team in both of their World Series championship seasons.)
But …
When we took a look at which teams were best situated to follow the stunning turnaround in Toronto, the Marlins popped pretty highly on the list. To quote ourselves from back in November:
The Marlins have made a concerted effort to improve their contact skills, and going from 2022’s fifth-worst strikeout team to 2025’s fourth-best is quite noticeable … they did improve by 17 games over 2024’s 100-loss catastrophe to get back to nearly .500. If having the 18th-best bat speed doesn’t stand out, it’s at least better than 24th, as they were in 2024. Only three teams added more bat speed year over year, and they already had the shortest swings and the flattest swings.
The pitching offers a lot to like. Miami is quietly becoming one of the game’s more experimental teams, making it clear they’re going all-in on calling pitches from the dugout. Sandy Alcantara was far more successful down the stretch last year in his return from elbow surgery, and Eury Pérez is so many breakout lists for a reason. Top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling are just about ready to get to Miami, and the Marlins finally added a standout reliever in Pete Fairbanks via free agency.
There are reasons to be optimistic about the lineup, too. Everyone wants to see what Owen Caissie looks like now that he’ll be given an opportunity after coming over in a trade with the Cubs. Everyone wants to see if Jakob Marsee can replicate Kyle Stowers’ breakout after a promising 55-game debut in 2025.
This may still be a year too soon for this group. But there’s a lot to like here. They just need some help from the big teams above. They need some of that risk to work in their favor. It just might.