It's the final week of the regular season, and most of the NL playoff picture is pretty well settled, with all three division winners and their seeds set in stone.
As for the Wild Card, the Cubs and Padres both secured postseason berths on Thursday. The Phillies have a one-game lead over the only other team that remains in contention -- the D-backs, whose postseason odds, per FanGraphs, sit at 30.7% after Philadelphia’s loss and Arizona's win on Friday.
The Cubs, Padres and Phillies could still finish in any order -- including a potential three-way tie. With a sweep this weekend in San Diego, the D-backs could also force a three-way tie with the Cubs and Phillies.
Who would win a three-way tie for the National League Wild Card?
You can read in full about the postseason tiebreaker rules right here, but the key point is that in ties between three teams …
- If the three clubs do NOT have identical records against one another, AND Club 1 has a better record against Clubs 2 and 3, THEN Club 1 qualifies
- If no club has a better record against the other two clubs, then the clubs will be ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst the other clubs combined. The club with the highest overall winning percentage in that group qualifies.
If the Cubs, Padres and Phillies end up tied, this one is simple -- relatively speaking. That’s because the Cubs dominated their season series against both teams. They went 5-1 against the Padres and 6-1 against the Phillies. That means, in a theoretical three-way tie for the three Wild Card spots, the Cubs would earn the No. 4 seed. That, in turn, would give them home-field advantage for each game of the Wild Card Series against the No. 5 seed.
That leaves us with this arrangement if there's a three-way tie between the three clubs:
- Cubs: No. 4 seed, host Phillies in Wild Card Series
- Phillies: No. 5 seed, play at Cubs in Wild Card Series
- Padres: No. 6 seed, play at No. 3 seed Braves in Wild Card Series
If only two of those three teams end up tied, the Cubs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies or Padres, while the Phillies would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres.
The Cubs are also in good shape if the D-backs sweep the Padres and force a three-way tie with Chicago and Philadelphia at 88-74, which would take a Cubs loss against the Red Sox on Sunday at Tropicana Field and exactly one Phillies win in the club’s final two games against the Rays.
By going 6-1 against the Phillies and 4-2 against the D-backs this season, the Cubs would slot in behind San Diego as the NL’s No. 5 seed. Arizona would have the second-best record against the other two tied clubs and would earn the No. 6 seed.
If only two of those three teams end up tied, the Cubs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies or D-backs, while the D-backs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies. With Arizona and Philadelphia splitting their head-to-head series 3-3, the tiebreaker comes down to division record, which would favor the D-backs.
Will either three-team tie scenario come to pass? We’ll just have to see how the next two days play out.