A closer look at Winker's struggles

June 15th, 2022

SEATTLE -- With his prolonged struggles reaching 60 games, Jesse Winker was out of the Mariners’ lineup on Tuesday against Minnesota.

Given the opponent (a right-handed starting pitcher), the timing (Winker struck out in the bottom of the ninth inning to end Monday’s game with the tying run on second base) and that aside from Winker, Seattle made a slew of other significant lineup adjustments, Winker’s absence felt notable. Manager Scott Servais wouldn’t go into further details other than saying “he’s off.”

“We've tried different things to try to get guys going and whatnot,” Servais said. “And I did say earlier, over the weekend, I was going to give some guys a day off this week, and that's what we're doing.”

Dylan Moore was slated to start in left field and Abraham Toro was the DH, the two spots that Winker has manned this season. And J.P. Crawford -- before he was a late scratch -- had been moved to the top of the order for the first time this season, a spot he thrived in last year. Moore moved to shortstop due to Crawford feeling under the weather, and Sam Haggerty was the replacement in left field.

Asked whether Crawford’s move to leadoff would be more permanent, Servais said, “We’ll see. He’s hitting leadoff tonight.”

Servais being coy might’ve simply been a personification of the offensive struggles that extend well beyond Winker. But it’s no secret that the club would like to see the slugger get going, given that the club acquired Winker to be a run-producing force in the lineup and he’s been far from his 2021 form, when he was a starter in the All-Star Game.

Winker is hitting .208/.319/.303 with four homers and nine doubles in 260 plate appearances, good for 90 wRC+ (league average is 100). He’s also been worth minus-0.3 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, after putting up 3.1 WAR last year, his defense being a deterring contributor here, with Winker ranking in the bottom 7% of the league in outs above average, per Statcast.

The Mariners’ bigger concerns, however, are with his bat.

Winker leads the AL with 37 walks, contributing to his .319 on-base percentage, which is above the MLB average .312. But his power production has been way down. Winker’s 253-point drop in slugging percentage -- from .556 to .303 -- is the second-largest dip in the Majors among 178 qualified hitters. When opposing pitchers are coming into the strike zone against him, he’s struggled to square them up.

Winker’s quality of contact, 2021 vs. 2022 (percentile rankings)
Hard-hit rate:
81st | 19th
Barrel rate: 74th | 37th
Average exit velocity: 74th | 25th

As Statcast shows, Winker's advanced metrics illustrate he's had a tough time doing damage in 2022 compared to the elite rate he showed in 2021.

After another tough, 3-2 loss on Monday, Servais was asked whether he expects more offensive production from this current group, which is without key cogs Mitch Haniger (high ankle sprain), Kyle Lewis (concussion) and Jarred Kelenic (Minor League demotion).

“I certainly hope so,” Servais said. “That’s what we have. We do have some guys that are out, some of the guys that have been middle of the lineup staples for us, they’re not here. It’s a great opportunity for other guys to step up and take advantage of it. And that’s what it’s going to take. We’re certainly capable of doing a little bit more, there’s no question about it.”

Kelenic has been out of Triple-A Tacoma’s lineup with a hamstring issue, but he did taking batting practice on Tuesday, per Rainiers radio broadcaster Mike Curto. Veteran corner outfielder Justin Upton, who was signed to a Major League deal on May 22, has hit .162/.244/.351 (.595 OPS) in nine games for Tacoma, underscoring that he’s still not big league ready. 

It’s likely that Winker will be reinstalled as soon as Wednesday against Twins righty Sonny Gray, following a physical and mental reset. But it’s also clear that the Mariners won’t absolve themselves from shaking things up.