As we make our way into May, one thing seems pretty clear through the season’s opening month -- luck has not been on Ke'Bryan Hayes’ side.
In fact, several metrics tell us the Reds’ third baseman finished April as the unluckiest hitter in baseball. But if his latest few games are any indication, there’s a chance Hayes’ luck might be beginning to turn.
Make no mistake, Hayes’ numbers to this point are hard to dismiss. While he’s not a player Cincinnati depends on offensively, a .130/.193/.208 slash line is problematic no matter where you hit in the lineup. Though his Gold Glove-caliber defense remains strong, his batting average was hovering below .100 as recently as April 24, while a sixth-inning single against the Rays on April 20 snapped an 0-for-33 funk. The Reds would surely like to see more from one of their key 2025 Trade Deadline acquisitions, who is under contract through at least the 2029 season.
Hayes has never been known for his bat, entering the year with a career .675 OPS. He’s also hit the injured list with back-related ailments five separate times since 2022. But after avoiding the IL in ‘25 and getting acclimated to Cincinnati, he made it clear that improving his reputation at the plate was at the top of his 2026 to-do list.
“Coming up, I always hit. Since I’ve been in the big leagues, I haven’t been fully healthy since when I debuted in 2020. Whenever I was healthy, I hit," Hayes said in Spring Training. "Sometimes it’s kind of annoying to only be looked at [for defense], but that’s for me to change that narrative with my play on the field.”
Statcast’s expected outcome metrics -- which indicate how a hitter should be performing based on quality of contact -- imply that narrative should already be changing. Among all qualified MLB hitters, there isn’t a single one who comes close to seeing a higher gap between actual and expected numbers than Hayes.
He has an expected batting average of .245, which is below average yet also 115 points above what he’s actually hitting. Hayes’ actual weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .187 represents a career low by a mile, but his xwOBA (.321) is just a hair under MLB average. On top of that, there’s a 230-point difference between his actual slugging percentage (.208) and what Statcast thinks it should be (.438).
A gap that large isn’t just big. It’s absurd. It’s also being driven by Hayes creating far better contact than his surface-level numbers indicate.
The 29-year-old is barreling 12.1% of his batted balls so far this season, which is 6.9% higher than his career average and also in the top 75% among MLB hitters. He’s been squaring up the ball better than ever, while the rate at which he’s hitting it at its sweet spot -- i.e. just the right launch angle for solid contact -- is in the top 76% of the Majors.
For the bulk of the season, though, the high-quality contact wasn’t resulting in much. Hayes had nothing but a trio of singles through the first 20 games of the year. But since snapping his lengthy funk last week, his batted-ball luck has begun to change.
Hayes connected for his first homer since Aug. 29 the day after ending his 0-for-33 slump, smoking a Steven Matz sinker 100.9 mph the opposite way.
“Good for him, because it’s been tough on him,” manager Terry Francona said after the game. “He’s hit balls hard and they haven’t fallen. ... It was nice to see him get rewarded for going the other way.”
Two games later, he doubled over the head of Tigers center fielder Matt Vierling in his first multihit game of the season. He went opposite way again with a triple in Sunday’s series finale with Detroit, and he's logged a hit in all but one of his past seven games.
It’s a small sample size, but this is exactly what Hayes’ expected numbers have been saying he’s capable of all year. It also serves as more proof that his Spring Training work is paying off.
Hayes spent his time in Arizona trying to improve his timing and keep the ball off the ground. His 33.3% groundball rate so far this year is 15.5% lower than his career average, while the rate at which he’s putting the ball in the air (66.7%) has never been higher.
Yet, these improvements still left Hayes boasting nothing but a hard-luck slash line through the season's first month. Only after 20 games did he actually start seeing some results.
This is no guarantee Hayes is about to go on a tear. Expected outcome stats are not predictive and in no way assure a course-correction. Randy Arozarena won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2021 despite having an expected batting average in the bottom 6% of the Majors.
But Hayes has spent the season seeing canyon-sized gaps between actual and expected metrics, and the ball finally finding grass (or bleachers) for him is certainly a trend to monitor.