Reds' young core eyes sophomore surge in '24

March 27th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- Coming close to reaching the playoffs in 2023 has only raised the expectations for the 2024 Reds as they prepare to open the season on Thursday.

A young roster with several rookies -- in what was expected to be a rebuilding year -- was one of the big surprises when Cincinnati contended all the way into the final weekend of last season. While they finished 82-80 and out of the playoff picture, the Reds were clearly no longer in rebuild mode.

Especially after numerous injuries sustained in camp, it will be critical for the Reds to get off to a fast start until players return -- both individually and as a team.

"I think we have a good chance to start off strong," shortstop Elly De La Cruz said through translator Jorge Merlos. "We will start off strong. Obviously, the whole goal is to get to the World Series and win the World Series at the end of the year.”

Most important thing we learned from camp

Focusing on depth in the offseason really helped after a tranquil Spring Training turned turbulent midway. Top prospect and expected third baseman Noelvi Marte is out 80 games because of a PED suspension. Center fielder TJ Friedl (right wrist) will miss the beginning of the season, and second baseman Matt McLain (left shoulder surgery) will be out for an indefinite period. Those losses certainly hurt, but they can be mitigated somewhat. By signing Jeimer Candelario and not trading Jonathan India, Cincinnati has a chance to weather the storm and stay competitive until it returns to full strength.

Great unknown: Will Frankie Montas return to form in Cincinnati?

With the A's, Montas received Cy Young Award votes in 2021, and he was rolling in '22 until his trade to the Yankees. A right shoulder injury and subsequent surgery limited him to 1 1/3 innings of relief last year. The Reds were bullish on Montas and signed him to a one-year, $16 million contract in January to bolster a young rotation. He's been impressive in camp and, more importantly, healthy. If Montas can deliver his stated goal of 30 starts in 2024 and channel his Oakland days, the Reds would be very pleased.

What must go right? Limit sophomore jinxes

Cincinnati had 16 rookies make their Major League debuts in 2023, but De La Cruz, McLain, Marte, Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are most expected to be important contributors in 2024. As they've become more known, opponents made their adjustments. These five second-year players will be counted on to take steps forward and avoid regression, which will be key to the club contending in the NL Central race.

The Reds’ MVP will be: Spencer Steer

Steer won the honors from the Cincinnati chapter of the BBWAA in 2023 and only seems more poised to build on his rookie season. The 26-year-old batted .271 in 156 games and led the team in home runs (23), RBIs (86), hits (158) and walks (68). At Spring Training, he batted .340 with four homers and appears more comfortable in left field after being put there for the first time in the middle of last season. Steer will also be needed at some infield positions, but wherever he plays, he will be a key contributor.

The Reds’ top pitcher will be: Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft dealt with inconsistency during an up-and-down 2023 and ended it with two broken toes that required surgery and cost him the final month of the season. He was still the team leader with 26 starts and 145 2/3 innings. When the right-hander is on a roll and has his cutter working, he's tough to beat. Following an eight-start stretch last year where he had a 12.82 ERA, he was 4-3 with a 2.58 ERA with 10 quality starts in 15 games.

Bold prediction

It took 34 years for a Reds hitter to hit for the cycle between Eric Davis in 1989 and De La Cruz in 2023. The club won't have to wait long. De La Cruz will do it again in 2024.