Is this Reds player set to break out in 2023?

January 10th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon's Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- Happy New Year, everybody!

I hope your 2022 ended on a good note and that 2023 is off to a strong start.

You know who wants to make his 2023 much better than ’22? Reds catcher . It’s safe to say that if Cincinnati wants to increase offensive production in the upcoming season, Stephenson will be one of the biggest keys towards achieving that goal.

As you likely know, Stephenson missed 107 games on the injured list last season with three serious injuries. The biggest blow was beginning the second half with a foul tip that broke his right collarbone and cost the 26-year-old the rest of his season.

When we last visited with Stephenson at Redsfest in early December, his collarbone was fully healed, and he was hitting and catching.

Things have changed a bit with the club’s catching situation since Redsfest because the Reds brought back free agent Curt Casali on a one-year, $3.25 million contract on Dec. 22. With Luke Maile already signed in November, the Reds now have three catchers on the 40-man roster.

Those signings give Stephenson and the Reds more protection. He can get more breaks from catching and potentially protect himself from injury. While keeping his legs fresher, he could also stay in the lineup almost daily if he’s used as either the designated hitter or at first base.

Over his 50 games last season, Stephenson batted .319 with an .854 OPS, six home runs and 35 RBIs.

According to FanGraphs’ Steamer Projections, Stephenson is targeted to bat .257 with a .737 OPS, 15 homers and 63 RBIs in 123 games in 2023. I don’t know if that projection came before or after the Reds added Casali and Maile, but it seems conservative. If he can avoid injury and play more, perhaps Stephenson could increase those numbers.

Stephenson first came up to the big leagues in 2020, appearing in eight games and spending most of the shortened season on the taxi squad behind Tucker Barnhart and Casali.

“I don’t think Tucker would be mad if I said this. He’s just a tremendous hitter. He’s so much better at hitting the ball than we are,” Casali said of Stephenson. “He’s got the big build. He’s got the tremendous approach at the plate. It seems like going to right field is natural for him.”

As for behind the plate, Stephenson has a chance to improve as well.

“Something Luke and I can help with is the thing that we have -- experience,” Casali said. “The only way you get experience is by catching. We can go over scouting, talk about pitchers, reading swings and everything. It’s stuff Tyler is already doing, and he’s doing a really good job of it.

“But hopefully we can help speed up the process for him and help any way we possibly can. He’s already got all the tools that anybody could ever want. I think it’s just important that we keep him on the field.”