This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
CINCINNATI -- Injuries piled up, run production is spotty and the bullpen has been taxed hard lately. At this point, the Reds are treading water, but the upcoming weeks could provide the indications of whether they sink or swim.
Just beyond the one-quarter mark of this season, Cincinnati entered Wednesday with a 20-23 record and five games back in the National League Central. At this spot in 2024, the club was 18-25 and already sinking.
“I don’t think anybody is happy with our record at this point, but we have the ability to change that," manager Terry Francona said.
Hired in October, Francona has worked to instill a new culture. The results have shown that work remains. But all things considered, the Reds are hanging in there and are still alive to contend in a wide-open division.
Ahead of Opening Day in March, I posted evaluations and predictions. Let's take a look at how those are going so far.
What needs to go right? Starting pitching depth needs to hold up
What I wrote: “With an offense that isn't filled with thumpers (see below) and a bullpen that currently lacks a closer, it will be on the starters to not only stay healthy and work deeper into games, but also keep games in reach. Last season, including relievers as openers, Cincinnati used 16 different starters.”
The Reds’ rotation currently sits in the middle of the Major League pack in ERA (3.95). Depth has already been tested with eight starters used.
Hunter Greene showed All-Star form before going on the injured list last week because of a right groin strain. Carson Spiers is out with a right shoulder impingement. Rhett Lowder (right elbow strain) hasn't pitched in a big league game this season, and Andrew Abbott got a late start as he worked back from his 2024 left shoulder injury.
One of the expected depth guys, No. 6 prospect Chase Petty, struggled mightily in both of his big league starts. Short starts by others lately added a lot to the bullpen workload.
Lowder and offseason addition Wade Miley are both on rehab assignments and could be back next month. If Greene can return after missing only two or three starts, the Reds could weather this storm.
Great unknown … Is there enough offense?
What I wrote: “Cincinnati lacked a big offense in 2024 and often struggled to consistently provide run support. Then it did not sign a big bat in the offseason.”
This concern has proven valid. In early April, there was a 35-inning scoreless streak that included three consecutive 1-0 losses. There have already been seven shutout losses, tied for the MLB lead. Sure, there have been a few double-digit run explosions -- namely the 24-2 thumping of the Orioles on April 20 -- but sustained production has been hard to come by.
Key bats like Austin Hays, Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson have spent time on the IL. Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario and Jake Fraley are currently on the IL. Candelario and Encarnacion-Strand weren't producing when they were healthy, and McLain has not found his groove since returning in mid-April.
Team MVP will be … Elly De La Cruz
What I wrote: “De La Cruz hit 25 home runs with a Major League-leading 67 steals last season and continued to captivate the league. The two very large dings to his season? His 218 strikeouts and 29 errors. Both led the league.”
I still feel good about this prediction even though De La Cruz has yet to fully take off offensively. He leads the club with seven home runs and 30 RBIs, and ranks third with a .729 OPS. He's also cut down a little on his strikeout rate and is showing the ability to stay tough and win some of his longer at-bats.
De La Cruz hasn't had many showcase performances yet, but that could certainly change as the weather heats up.
Team Cy Young will be … Nick Lodolo
What I wrote: “There were also four trips to the IL for Lodolo [in 2024], who made 21 starts last season after he was limited to seven starts in 2023. The good news for him is he's looked healthy in camp and pitched well.”
Greene has better numbers, but Lodolo has been healthy and mostly effective. Through eight starts, he is 3-3 with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 47 1/3 innings. The Reds should be very pleased with his performance thus far.
Bold prediction … Graham Ashcraft will lead the Reds in saves
What I wrote: "Ashcraft will eventually emerge as the closer and have more saves than Alexis Díaz. His triple-digit stuff and mentality suit him best for the role."
Ashcraft has been strong as a reliever and is getting high-leverage opportunities, but Emilio Pagán replaced Díaz as closer. Pagán is currently 9-for-11 in save opportunities, though he took the loss Tuesday night after allowing four runs (three earned) on three hits and one walk in 1 2/3 innings.